Africa’s Expanding Cocaine Nexus: West African Transit Hub and Kenya’s Emerging Market

Executive Summary

Africa has entrenched itself as a critical node in global cocaine trafficking. West Africa has evolved into a strategic transshipment hub, driven by alliances between Balkan/Albanian criminal groups, South American cartels (notably Brazil’s Primeiro Comando da Capital, PCC), and local intermediaries. Simultaneously, East Africa, particularly Kenya, is transforming from a transit stop into both a logistics hub and a growing consumption market. Together, these shifts mark the structural embedding of Africa into global cocaine supply chains, with far-reaching implications for governance, security, and economic stability.

West Africa – Strategic Transit Hub

• Balkan Entrenchment: Since 2019, criminal groups from Montenegro, Serbia, and Albania have quietly established themselves in Senegal, Gambia, Guinea-Bissau, Sierra Leone, Guinea, and Cape Verde. Their aim is to exploit weak port controls and expanding maritime capacity to push large consignments into Europe.
• Alliance with Latin America: A strategic pact between Balkan clans and Brazil’s PCC cartel has consolidated control over logistics, blending European demand with Latin American supply and African transit capacity.
• Role of Local Brokers: African intermediaries provide logistics, political connections, and protection, ensuring discrete passage. These brokers now serve as critical convergence points linking global cartels with local political and business elites.
• Operational Example: A French naval seizure of nearly six tons of cocaine off West Africa underscores both the scale of traffic and the resilience of supply lines, which quickly adapt despite high-profile interceptions.

East Africa – Kenya’s Dual Role

• Logistics Platform: Mombasa port and Nairobi airport are increasingly exploited as redistribution points to the Gulf, South Asia, and Europe.
• Emerging Market: Nairobi and coastal cities are developing domestic cocaine consumption markets, adding a new internal layer to the crisis.
• Regional Spread: Kenyan networks link into Tanzania, Uganda, and Ethiopia, extending the Indian Ocean corridor and creating overlap with heroin and methamphetamine routes.

Strategic Implications

For West Africa

• Shadow Governance: Trafficking revenues create parallel power structures, undermining state institutions.
• Militia Financing: Proceeds fund insurgent supply chains in the Sahel, linking drug trade with terrorism.
• European Exposure: The EU’s cocaine supply chain is now structurally dependent on West African routes.

For East Africa

• Domestic Risk: Cocaine addiction and gang violence increase in Kenya’s urban centres.
• Regional Stability: Expanded networks risk entrenching organized crime across East Africa, replicating West Africa’s trajectory.
• Public Health Strain: Weak health systems face rising addiction-related burdens.

Risk Scenarios

1. Containment: Enhanced African – European cooperation increases seizures but drives traffickers toward diversification.

2. Entrenchment: Balkan–Latin American alliances embed permanently in African logistics and governance, with Kenya consolidating as both hub and market.

3. Spillover Militarization: Criminal networks fuse with armed groups, further destabilizing fragile regions like the Sahel or northern Mozambique.

Implications for Stakeholders

• Governments: Risk erosion of legitimacy and sanctions pressure if unable to contain trafficking.
• Humanitarian Actors: Communities exposed to violence, intimidation, and displacement linked to cartel activity.
• Corporates: Logistics, shipping, and trade companies face compliance risks, reputational damage, and security threats tied to drug flows.

ASA Advisory Note

African Security Analysis (ASA) assesses that Africa has shifted from peripheral transit to structural core of global cocaine logistics. Balkan–Latin American alliances, supported by African intermediaries, anchor West Africa as a permanent hub, while Kenya transforms into both a gateway and consumer market.

Africa’s cocaine trade has entered a new phase of institutionalization. Stakeholders without embedded intelligence and proactive risk strategies risk being blindsided by the deepening convergence of organized crime, corruption, and insurgency. ASA remains positioned to provide decision-grade insights at a reasonable cost to safeguard political, humanitarian, and corporate interests.