African Security Analysis
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Security Updates
Ethiopia at the Brink: The Return of War in Tigray and the Eritrean Dimension
Ethiopia is in the early stages of what may become its most dangerous security crisis since the 2020–2022 Tigray war. In late September, the TPLF announced a "defensive war" alongside six other armed groups under the banner of the Alliance for Survival coalition, seeking the removal of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed.
Renewed Jihadist Rivalry Threatens to Reshape the Eastern Sahel
Renewed fighting between JNIM and ISSP around Tessit in eastern Mali and Oudalan province in northern Burkina Faso signals a potentially significant escalation in the struggle for control of the tri-border region.
Mali: The Return to Kidal
On the afternoon of 6 Oct 2026, a column of Malian Armed Forces (FAMa), Africa Corps personnel and fighters of the pro-government Tuareg movements GATIA and MSA entered Kidal without firing a shot.
Gerald Group Regains Control of Soremi After Prolonged China National Gold Dispute
Gerald Group, a US-based metals trading and mining group, has regained control of the Soremi copper and zinc operation in M’Fouati, in the Republic of Congo, following a prolonged ownership dispute with China National Gold Group (CNG).
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Sudan: The Drone War Crosses Into Famine and a Foreign Frontier
Sudan's war has reached a point at which the Security Council's existing instruments are poorly matched to the crisis. Although the 1591 sanctions regime remains centred on Darfur, major fighting and drone attacks have intensified in Kordofan and Blue Nile, where civilians, displaced populations and aid operations face mounting risks.
Eastern DRC: Kabila's Emerging Command Over the FRN Military Structure
The establishment of the FRN on 12 Oct has been followed by reporting that materially sharpens the assessment of what the new organisation represents.
Eastern DRC: The Kabila–M23 Realignment and the Next Contest For State Authority
The formation of the FRN in Goma on 12 Oct 2026, with former president Joseph Kabila as its leader and senior AFC/M23 figures in its leadership, marks a consequential reconfiguration of the challenge to Kinshasa.
Ukraine in Mali External Military Assistance and Jihadist Risk
ASA assesses that Ukrainian training and operational assistance to northern Malian separatists is probable on the available reporting. The central strategic risk is that support intended to impose costs on Russian forces strengthens an armed partnership whose battlefield gains may also benefit JNIM, an al-Qaeda affiliate. Direct Ukrainian assistance to JNIM has not been established.
Russia and Togo – An Atlantic Gateway to the Sahel
ASA assesses that the proposed Russia–Togo transport corridor is likely to develop into a dual-purpose logistics route, supporting commercial trade while creating a more durable supply architecture for Russian security engagement in the central Sahel.
Russia–Africa Summit 2026: Strategic Signals, Partnerships and Emerging Risks
The third Russia–Africa Summit in Moscow will provide an important indication of how relations between Russia and African states have evolved since the previous summit in St Petersburg in 2023.
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