African Security Analysis
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Security Updates
Western Sahara: Competing Vetoes Leave MINURSO Without a Renewed Mandate
The Security Council’s failure on 30 October to renew the mandate of the MINURSO marks a sharper rupture than a disagreement over mission reform.
Libya: UNSMIL Mandate Renewal Preserves a Process but Not a Political Settlement
ASA assesses that the UN Security Council’s unanimous renewal of UNSMIL’s mandate on 30 October 2026 preserves the main international framework for Libya’s political transition but does not resolve the underlying struggle over who has authority to determine that transition.
Official Clarification: False Attribution of Intelligence Report to African Security Analysis
ASA has become aware of claims circulating on Somali-language Facebook pages alleging that ASA prepared a three-page intelligence report concerning the killing of Cabdiqani Axmed Dihaal, also known as Dul-Qarnayn, following an attack in Widhwidh on 12 July 2024.
Ethiopia at the Brink: The Return of War in Tigray and the Eritrean Dimension
Ethiopia is in the early stages of what may become its most dangerous security crisis since the 2020–2022 Tigray war. In late September, the TPLF announced a "defensive war" alongside six other armed groups under the banner of the Alliance for Survival coalition, seeking the removal of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed.
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Sudan’s War and Somalia’s Political Conflict
ASA assesses that Somalia is experiencing recurrent armed political confrontation alongside substantial regional security autonomy. The evidence reviewed does not yet establish a unified, independently financed opposition military coalition comparable to Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces.
Benin–Niger: The Mistral Visit Will Test a Fragile Rapprochement
France’s amphibious helicopter carrier Mistral is scheduled to call at Cotonou from 22 to 27 Oct under Operation CORYMBE, with joint exercises involving the Beninese Armed Forces.
Chad–CAR: The Vakaga Border Crisis
A border confrontation between the Central African Republic and Chad has escalated sharply over the past week, producing civilian and military casualties on Chadian soil, the emergency summoning of the CAR ambassador in N'Djamena, and a formal Chadian accusation of sovereign territorial violation by the Forces Armées Centrafricaines.
Sudan: The Drone War Crosses Into Famine and a Foreign Frontier
Sudan's war has reached a point at which the Security Council's existing instruments are poorly matched to the crisis. Although the 1591 sanctions regime remains centred on Darfur, major fighting and drone attacks have intensified in Kordofan and Blue Nile, where civilians, displaced populations and aid operations face mounting risks.
Eastern DRC: Kabila's Emerging Command Over the FRN Military Structure
The establishment of the FRN on 12 Oct has been followed by reporting that materially sharpens the assessment of what the new organisation represents.
Eastern DRC: The Kabila–M23 Realignment and the Next Contest For State Authority
The formation of the FRN in Goma on 12 Oct 2026, with former president Joseph Kabila as its leader and senior AFC/M23 figures in its leadership, marks a consequential reconfiguration of the challenge to Kinshasa.
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