African Security Analysis
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Security Analysis and Consultancy for Public, Private and Government Sectors.
Security Updates
Russia’s Travel Warning on Morocco: Legal Risk Narrative Signals Broader Geopolitical Friction
Russia has issued an official warning advising its citizens against travel to Morocco, citing the risk of arrest and possible extradition to the United States.
Escalation in Ransom-Based Kidnapping by Boko Haram Signals Structural Shift in Insurgent Financing
On 31 March 2026, Boko Haram elements abducted seven Chadian nationals along the N’Guigmi–Daboua axis, a high-risk corridor in the Niger–Chad–Nigeria tri-border area. One hostage has already been executed, while the group is demanding exceptionally high ransoms for the release of the remaining captives.
Drone Warfare Escalation and Systemic Collapse of Civilian Infrastructure
As of late March 2025, Sudan’s conflict has entered a decisive escalation phase characterized by intensified drone warfare, systematic targeting of civilian infrastructure, and increasing regional spillover.
JNIM Multi-Axis Offensive and Consolidation of Rural Dominance
As of 22–27 March 2026, Burkina Faso is experiencing a renewed wave of coordinated jihadist operations led by Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM), targeting multiple regions including the Sahel, Boucle du Mouhoun, and Centre-Nord.
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ASA Situation Reports™
US Migration Externalization in Central Africa: Coercive Diplomacy, Financial Leverage, and Strategic Penetration in the DRC and Cameroon
The United States has secured arrangements with Cameroon and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) to receive migrants expelled from U.S. territory as part of a broader migration externalization strategy.
Côte d’Ivoire: Touraco 2026 and the Reconfiguration of Security Alliances in West Africa
The launch of the joint military exercise Touraco 2026 between Côte d’Ivoire and France reflects a broader strategic repositioning within West Africa’s evolving security architecture.
Western Sahara Geopolitical System: Strategic Balancing, Legal Tensions, and Emerging Maritime Risk
ASA assesses that the Western Sahara situation has evolved beyond a territorial dispute into a complex geopolitical system shaped by overlapping strategic, legal, economic, and environmental dynamics.
FARDC Operations Against FDLR
ASA has been alerted to the official launch of a large-scale military and political operation by FARDC, initiated from Kisangani, targeting the disarmament and repatriation of FDLR. The initiative marks an important transition from political signalling to operational execution and reflects Kinshasa’s intent to demonstrate control, respond to regional pressure, and show progress on a long-standing security concern.
Bab el-Mandeb Disruption: Africa’s Frontline Exposure to a Strategic Maritime Shock
ASA has identified the Bab el-Mandeb Strait as a potential source of major disruption to global trade, with particularly significant implications for African economies. This report examines how a prolonged disruption in the strait could affect trade flows, public finances, supply chains, and political stability across the continent. It also considers how the severity of the impact would vary by region and over time.
Algeria’s Mining & Steel Expansion: Industrial Acceleration and Strategic Positioning in North Africa
Algeria is entering a decisive phase in its industrial transformation, leveraging large-scale mining projects and steel production expansion to reduce hydrocarbon dependency and position itself as a regional industrial hub.
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As trusted advisors and analysts, we offer the critical insights and understanding these leaders need to navigate complex security environments. Through long-standing personal relationships, we've supported them for years, ensuring they have the right information to make informed and impactful decisions when it matters most.
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