African Security Analysis
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de-risk
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Security Analysis and Consultancy for Public, Private and Government Sectors.
Security Updates
Aviation System Under Shock — Jet Fuel Crisis and the Strait of Hormuz Dependency Trap
Africa’s aviation sector is currently experiencing the most severe fuel shock in its modern history, driven by the near-total disruption of jet fuel flows through the Strait of Hormuz.
Chad–Sudan Border Crisis: Drone Strike in Tiné and the Structural Spillover of the Sudan Conflict into Eastern Chad
The 18 March 2026 drone strike in Tiné, eastern Chad, represents a critical escalation in the cross-border dynamics of the Sudanese conflict. While tactically limited in scope, the attack signals a broader and more dangerous the progressive transformation of Chad’s eastern frontier into an active extension of the Darfur theatre.
Strategic Outlook: Operational Intelligence and Early Warning Capabilities Provided by ASA
The evolving security environment in eastern DRC illustrates a structural reality that increasingly defines the region: economic activity and armed conflict now coexist within the same operational geography.
Eastern DRC Conflict Dynamics and International Diplomatic Pressure: UNSC Consultations, Escalating Drone Warfare, and Renewed US Mediation Efforts
Members of the UNSC are scheduled to convene closed consultations on 17 March to address the deteriorating security situation in the DRC.
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ASA Situation Reports™
Global Gold Market: Delayed Safe-Haven Dynamics and Implications for Africa’s Gold Economies
ASA assesses that recent gold-market behaviour during escalating US–Iran tensions suggests that gold did not function as an immediate safe haven in the initial phase of the shock. Instead, short-term price formation appears to have been shaped more strongly by dollar strength and interest-rate expectations than by geopolitical risk alone.
China–Africa: Han Zheng’s East and Southern Africa Tour and the Reconfiguration of Strategic Influence
The March 2026 diplomatic tour of Chinese Vice President Han Zheng across Kenya, South Africa, and the Seychelles represents a calibrated execution of Beijing’s post-FOCAC (Forum on China–Africa Cooperation) strategy, aimed at consolidating long-term influence across key African subregions.
Morocco: The Strategic Gateway — China’s Industrial Infiltration of Transatlantic Battery Supply Chains
Morocco has rapidly emerged as a central node in the restructuring of global electric vehicle (EV) battery supply chains, driven by a convergence of Chinese industrial capital, favourable trade architecture, and Western demand for supply diversification.
Zambia: Conditional Aid and the Strategic Repricing of Resource Sovereignty
Zambia has emerged as a focal point of a broader transformation in global resource geopolitics, where development assistance is increasingly embedded within strategic competition frameworks.
Mali: From Territorial Insurgency to Systemic Vulnerability
Mali is undergoing a structural transformation in which state stability is no longer anchored in territorial control, but in the ability to maintain systemic continuity under pressure.
Fed Hawkish Hold Strengthens Dollar Pressure on African Markets
The U.S. Federal Reserve’s decision to keep rates at 3.50–3.75%, alongside guidance suggesting no cuts through 2026, is a major external pressure point for African economies. This stance is supporting continued dollar strength, drawing capital toward U.S. assets, and tightening financial conditions across African markets.
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As trusted advisors and analysts, we offer the critical insights and understanding these leaders need to navigate complex security environments. Through long-standing personal relationships, we've supported them for years, ensuring they have the right information to make informed and impactful decisions when it matters most.
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