African Security Analysis
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Security Analysis and Consultancy for Public, Private and Government Sectors.
Security Updates
Drone Warfare Escalation and Systemic Collapse of Civilian Infrastructure
As of late March 2025, Sudan’s conflict has entered a decisive escalation phase characterized by intensified drone warfare, systematic targeting of civilian infrastructure, and increasing regional spillover.
JNIM Multi-Axis Offensive and Consolidation of Rural Dominance
As of 22–27 March 2026, Burkina Faso is experiencing a renewed wave of coordinated jihadist operations led by Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM), targeting multiple regions including the Sahel, Boucle du Mouhoun, and Centre-Nord.
Aviation System Under Shock — Jet Fuel Crisis and the Strait of Hormuz Dependency Trap
Africa’s aviation sector is currently experiencing the most severe fuel shock in its modern history, driven by the near-total disruption of jet fuel flows through the Strait of Hormuz.
Chad–Sudan Border Crisis: Drone Strike in Tiné and the Structural Spillover of the Sudan Conflict into Eastern Chad
The 18 March 2026 drone strike in Tiné, eastern Chad, represents a critical escalation in the cross-border dynamics of the Sudanese conflict. While tactically limited in scope, the attack signals a broader and more dangerous the progressive transformation of Chad’s eastern frontier into an active extension of the Darfur theatre.
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ASA Situation Reports™
FARDC Operations Against FDLR
ASA has been alerted to the official launch of a large-scale military and political operation by FARDC, initiated from Kisangani, targeting the disarmament and repatriation of FDLR. The initiative marks an important transition from political signalling to operational execution and reflects Kinshasa’s intent to demonstrate control, respond to regional pressure, and show progress on a long-standing security concern.
Bab el-Mandeb Disruption: Africa’s Frontline Exposure to a Strategic Maritime Shock
ASA has identified the Bab el-Mandeb Strait as a potential source of major disruption to global trade, with particularly significant implications for African economies. This report examines how a prolonged disruption in the strait could affect trade flows, public finances, supply chains, and political stability across the continent. It also considers how the severity of the impact would vary by region and over time.
Algeria’s Mining & Steel Expansion: Industrial Acceleration and Strategic Positioning in North Africa
Algeria is entering a decisive phase in its industrial transformation, leveraging large-scale mining projects and steel production expansion to reduce hydrocarbon dependency and position itself as a regional industrial hub.
Tanzania’s Strategic Minerals Deal and the Reconfiguration of Resource Sovereignty in Africa
Tanzania’s recent strategic minerals agreement represents a critical inflection point in the evolution of Africa’s resource governance model. Rather than a routine contractual adjustment, the deal reflects a deliberate shift toward resource sovereignty, where the state seeks to maximize value capture from critical mineral extraction within its own borders.
Lamu Port Emergence and the Strategic Rewiring of Trade Flows Under Hormuz Disruption
The recent surge in activity at Kenya’s Lamu Port illustrates a broader structural dynamic in global trade systems: disruption is not only a source of risk, but also a mechanism of rapid value reallocation.
Global Gold Market: Delayed Safe-Haven Dynamics and Implications for Africa’s Gold Economies
ASA assesses that recent gold-market behaviour during escalating US–Iran tensions suggests that gold did not function as an immediate safe haven in the initial phase of the shock. Instead, short-term price formation appears to have been shaped more strongly by dollar strength and interest-rate expectations than by geopolitical risk alone.
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As trusted advisors and analysts, we offer the critical insights and understanding these leaders need to navigate complex security environments. Through long-standing personal relationships, we've supported them for years, ensuring they have the right information to make informed and impactful decisions when it matters most.
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