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Updates
Niger–Uranium: Russian Vessel off Lomé, Stalled Yellowcake Convoy, and the Emerging Risk of an Airlift Scenario
The prolonged immobilization of Niger’s yellowcake (uranium concentrate) convoy at Niamey military airport, combined with the presence of the Russian bulk carrier MATROS SHEVCHENKO off the coast of Lomé, reveals a growing logistical and strategic impasse.
Preliminary Situation Report: AFC/M23 Capture of Uvira, South Kivu
Armed elements of the AFC/M23 coalition have taken control of Uvira in South Kivu following a short but decisive sequence of operations. The pattern observed mirrors, with striking similarity, the approach previously used during the fall of Bukavu.
AES–Nigeria: Emergency Landing of Nigerian Military Aircraft Sparks New Airspace Tensions in the Sahel
The diplomatic confrontation between the AES — Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger — and Nigeria escalated sharply following the unannounced landing of a Nigerian Air Force C-130 in Burkina Faso. What Abuja describes as a routine “technical emergency” has been interpreted by the AES as a serious breach of sovereign airspace in a region already polarized by military realignments, contested air control, and deep strategic distrust.
Fall of Uvira: Operational Collapse, Regional Repercussions, and New Strategic Axes for the AFC/M23 Advance
As African Security Analysis (ASA) had forecast*, Uvira fell during the night of 9 December 2025 into the hands of the AFC/M23 after a disorderly retreat by FARDC, Wazalendo militias, and Burundian forces.
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