Encirclement Strategy Around Uvira and the Shifting Frontlines in Eastern DRC: Strategic and Tactical Analysis – Uvira, South Kivu (DRC)

Introduction

Following the fall of Bukavu in February 2025, Uvira has become the administrative and military pivot of South Kivu. Provincial authorities relocated here, while FARDC, supported by Burundian Defence Forces and Wazalendo militias, entrenched defensive positions. African Security Analysis (ASA) assesses Uvira as a critical node in the eastern DRC conflict, with its unique geography amplifying both its strategic importance and its vulnerabilities.

Geographic and Operational Overview

• West – High and Mid Plateaus:
  The mountains west of Uvira dominate the city and surrounding plain. Control of this high ground is decisive. M23/AFC, supported by Banyamulenge Twirwaneho fighters, has seized multiple localities in the plateaus, leveraging the tactical advantage of altitude. The capture of positions in the mid-level plateaus places the rebels closer to Uvira and threatens supply routes.
• East – Lake Tanganyika:
  Uvira sits on a narrow corridor squeezed between lake and mountains. The lake provides no safe evacuation route in a conflict scenario, leaving the Kavimvira crossing into Burundi as the only eastern outlet. If this is cut, Uvira would be sealed off.
• North – Ruzizi Plain:
  This 90 km flat corridor is heavily fortified by FARDC, Burundian units, and Wazalendo militias. It functions as a defensive wall preventing a direct advance by M23/AFC. The rebels appear unwilling to challenge this axis head-on, preferring to manoeuvre through the less defended highlands.
• South – Fizi and Kalemie Axis:
  The southern axis, via road and Lake Tanganyika, connects Uvira to Fizi and Kalemie. It remains a potential resupply and retreat channel for FARDC. However, its security depends on preventing rebel advances further along the shoreline and plateau zones.

Current Situation in Uvira

Inside Uvira, the situation appears outwardly calm. Civilian life continues under the heavy presence of military and police patrols. However, this calm is deceptive: daily clashes occur in the surrounding highlands, and the rebel encirclement strategy is advancing incrementally. The atmosphere in the city is marked by tension and uncertainty, with residents aware that Uvira could be isolated within weeks if pressure continues.

Beyond Uvira, other regions of eastern DRC show a similar deceptive calm. In Ituri, major clashes have temporarily subsided, but all actors — FARDC, Wazalendo, and various armed groups — are reinforcing positions. This relative quiet should not be misread as stability; rather, it may set the stage for a renewed outbreak of violence, possibly catching observers by surprise. ASA underlines that simultaneous escalations in South Kivu and Ituri remain plausible and would stretch FARDC’s operational capacity.

Adversary Strategy and Tactics

M23/AFC is replicating its Goma playbook: avoid frontal assaults, secure the high ground, and progressively encircle the target city. Their focus on Rubumba and nearby localities in the plateaus demonstrates a methodical intent to choke Uvira’s defences. Each gain brings them closer to the RN5 and to the city’s outskirts.

While Uvira remains the focal point, ASA assesses that M23/AFC could be preparing diversionary operations. One potential scenario is a strike on Kindu and its airport, a logistical hub for FARDC. Such an operation would disrupt reinforcements and expose FARDC’s vulnerability beyond the Kivu fronts.

Friendly Forces Disposition

FARDC, reinforced by Burundian troops and Wazalendo fighters, maintain control of the Ruzizi Plain and key positions in Uvira. The defensive posture is strong along the RN5 but under strain in the highlands, where allied forces face sustained pressure and mounting casualties. Southward connections to Kalemie remain open for now, but their security is not guaranteed.

Threat Projection

• Short-term: Rebels focus on consolidating control of the mid-plateaus, targeting localities such as Kageregere and Kashatu. Success would place them within striking distance of Uvira’s centre.
• Medium-term: Full encirclement of Uvira through plateau advances, combined with pressure on the Kavimvira corridor.
• Alternative scenario: Diversionary strike on Kindu’s airport or another rear-area objective, aimed at overstretching FARDC defences and demonstrating operational reach.

ASA Assessment and Conclusion

Uvira’s geography — a thin corridor pinned between mountains and lake — makes it exceptionally vulnerable to encirclement. M23/AFC understands this weakness and is executing a patient, calculated strategy to isolate the city. Unless FARDC and allies can break the momentum in the highlands, Uvira risks the same fate as Bukavu and Goma: encircled, weakened, and captured.

At the same time, the deceptive calm in Ituri and other provinces must be closely monitored. Reinforcements and quiet repositioning by all parties suggest that new offensives could erupt suddenly, with regional consequences.

ASA concludes that Uvira’s situation is approaching a decisive turning point. The risk of encirclement is high, and the potential for diversionary operations elsewhere adds complexity. The current calm in other provinces should not be interpreted as stability but as a pause before escalation.

ASA stands ready to provide:

• Detailed operational reports on specific regions or actors.
• Tailored security assessments for private companies, international organizations, and UN system agencies.
• On-time early-warning briefs to anticipate shifts before they materialize on the ground.
• In-depth situational analyses for decision-makers managing humanitarian, development, or investment operations in eastern DRC.

ASA remains committed to delivering timely, professional intelligence to help partners navigate this complex and evolving security environment.