Escalating Violence in Eastern DRC

A Deepening Humanitarian Crisis in Early 2025

The eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) has long been a region plagued by conflict, but the security situation in the last weeks of early 2025 has deteriorated to alarming levels. The resurgence of the March 23 Movement (M23) rebel group, backed by Rwanda, has driven unprecedented violence, territorial gains, and mass displacement, particularly in North Kivu and South Kivu provinces. This article explores the recent developments, their humanitarian consequences, and the broader implications for the region.

M23’s Rapid Advances and Territorial Control

Since early January 2025, M23 has intensified its offensive, capturing key cities and consolidating control over mineral-rich areas. On January 27, M23 seized Goma, the provincial capital of North Kivu and a critical humanitarian hub with over 2 million residents, marking the group’s most significant advance in over a decade. This followed the capture of strategic towns like Minova and Sake, which control vital supply routes to Goma. By mid-February, M23 had extended its reach to Bukavu, the capital of South Kivu, further entrenching its presence.

The group’s territorial expansion has been bolstered by an estimated 3,000–4,000 Rwandan troops, as reported by the United Nations, alongside sophisticated equipment and GPS jamming tactics that disrupt humanitarian operations and civilian aviation. M23 has also established parallel administrations, appointing governors and financial officials in captured areas, signalling an intent to govern rather than merely occupy. These developments have raised fears of a broader regional conflict, with experts warning of parallels to the devastating Second Congo War of the late 1990s.

Humanitarian Catastrophe and Displacement

The humanitarian fallout from M23’s offensive has been catastrophic. Over 7.3 million people are now internally displaced in the DRC, with 400,000 displaced in 2025 alone due to the recent escalation. Displacement sites near Goma and in South Kivu have been emptied or attacked, with reports of widespread human rights violations, including summary executions, sexual violence, and child recruitment. UNICEF reported that 45% of 10,000 sexual violence cases in January and February involved minors, underscoring the use of rape as a weapon of war.

The capture of Goma and Bukavu has severely restricted humanitarian access, with Goma’s airport and transport corridors closed, hampering aid delivery. The UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) estimates that 21 million people require assistance, with 25.5 million facing severe food insecurity—the highest globally. Health crises, including outbreaks of mpox, cholera, and measles, have compounded the suffering, with the DRC accounting for the majority of global mpox cases.

Regional and International Responses

The conflict’s regional dimensions have complicated efforts to restore stability. Rwanda’s support for M23, driven by economic interests in the DRC’s mineral wealth and security concerns over the Hutu-led Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda (FDLR), has strained relations with the DRC and Burundi. Uganda, officially deployed to combat the Allied Democratic Forces (ADF), faces accusations of supporting M23, while Burundian forces have withdrawn from South Kivu after joining the fight against M23.

Diplomatic initiatives, such as the African Union’s Luanda Process and the Nairobi Process, have faltered. A planned December 2024 summit between DRC President Félix Tshisekedi and Rwandan President Paul Kagame was cancelled over disagreements about direct talks with M23, which the DRC initially refused. Angola withdrew from its mediation role in March, leaving the African Union and Qatar to compete for influence. However, recent developments suggest a shift, with the DRC expressing willingness to engage directly with M23, and Qatar facilitating talks.

The UN Security Council has condemned M23’s advances, demanding an immediate ceasefire and the withdrawal of foreign forces. The UN Stabilization Mission in the DRC (MONUSCO), despite its mandate extension to 2025, faces significant challenges following its withdrawal from South Kivu in June 2024 and attacks on peacekeepers, with several killed in January. International sanctions have targeted Rwandan officials and M23 leaders, but Kigali has dismissed these measures as counterproductive.

Other Armed Groups and Broader Instability

While M23 dominates headlines, over 100 armed groups operate in eastern DRC, including the ADF, which has intensified attacks in areas like Lubero, exploiting the security vacuum left by the Congolese army’s focus on M23. The ADF, affiliated with the Islamic State, killed 30 civilians in Lubero in January, highlighting its growing threat. Inter-communal violence in provinces like Kasai and Mai-Ndombe has further strained resources and governance.

Nationally, political fragmentation adds to the crisis. Opposition leaders have rejected Tshisekedi’s call for a national unity government, and allegations of former President Joseph Kabila’s ties to M23 have fuelled tensions. A proposed constitutional revision has sparked warnings from civil society about further destabilization.

A Fragile Ceasefire and Uncertain Future

In late April 2025, a fragile ceasefire was declared, but posts on X indicate it lacks enforcement or a clear timeline, with M23 continuing to entrench its positions. Some residents in Goma reportedly feel safer under M23 control, citing a sense of order compared to Kinshasa’s governance, though such sentiments are contentious and not universal. Meanwhile, a two-week ultimatum issued in April for Rwanda to withdraw its forces has raised hopes for peace by late May, but scepticism remains given the conflict’s complexity.

Conclusion

The security situation in eastern DRC over the last weeks of early 2025 reflects a deepening crisis with no easy resolution. M23’s territorial gains, backed by Rwanda, have exacerbated a humanitarian catastrophe, displaced millions, and heightened regional tensions. While diplomatic efforts and a fragile ceasefire offer glimmers of hope, the proliferation of armed groups, governance challenges, and external interference continue to undermine peace. The international community, led by the UN and African mediators, must prioritize an immediate ceasefire, humanitarian access, and inclusive dialogue to prevent a wider war. Without concerted action, eastern DRC risks descending further into chaos, with devastating consequences for its people and the Great Lakes region.