External Security Partnerships and Internal Counter-Insurgency Momentum

Executive Overview

Recent developments in Somalia reflect a dual-track security dynamic:

1. the consolidation of external military partnerships, notably with Saudi Arabia, aimed at long-term security sector reform; and

2. the intensification of targeted counter-insurgency operations against Al-Shabaab, including the elimination of senior leadership figures.

Together, these trends indicate a deliberate strategy by Mogadishu to combine capacity-building diplomacy with kinetic pressure, as part of a broader effort to reassert state authority, professionalize the Somali National Army (SNA), and weaken insurgent command structures.

Somalia–Saudi Arabia Defence Agreement: Strategic Deepening

Somalia and Saudi Arabia have signed a new military cooperation agreement designed to strengthen bilateral defence ties and enhance Somalia’s security capabilities. The agreement was signed by Somalia’s Minister of Defence, Ahmed Moallim Fiqi, and Saudi Arabia’s Minister of Defence, Prince Khalid bin Salman, marking a significant step in the deepening of strategic relations between Mogadishu and Riyadh.

The accord establishes a comprehensive framework for defence cooperation, including:

• training and capacity-building of Somali security forces,
• provision and support of military equipment,
• cooperation in modern defence and security technologies,
• coordination on defence planning, and
• structured exchange of military expertise between the two-armed forces.

Saudi Arabia has long been a political and security supporter of Somalia, particularly in countering armed groups and supporting stabilization efforts. This agreement formalizes and expands that role, positioning Riyadh as a more direct contributor to Somalia’s security sector reform.

From an ASA perspective, the deal reflects:

• Saudi Arabia’s growing security footprint in the Horn of Africa, aligned with Red Sea and Gulf security interests;
• Somalia’s intent to diversify its security partnerships beyond traditional Western and African Union frameworks;
• a shift toward longer-term institutional support, rather than ad hoc assistance.

Impact on Somali National Army Capability

Officials on both sides have emphasized that the agreement is expected to improve the professionalism, readiness, and operational effectiveness of the Somali National Army.

If implemented effectively, Saudi support could contribute to:

• improved command-and-control structures,
• enhanced training standards,
• modernization of equipment and logistics,
• and reduced dependency on external combat forces over time.

This aligns with Somalia’s stated objective of rebuilding a national army capable of independently securing territory reclaimed from insurgent groups.

Parallel Counter-Insurgency Operations: Targeting Al-Shabaab Leadership

Concurrently, Somalia’s National Intelligence and Security Agency (NISA), working in coordination with international partners, has conducted a successful operation outside the town of Saakow in the Middle Juba region, resulting in the killing of a senior Al-Shabaab commander.

According to security sources:

• the strike targeted key leadership figures within the group;
• the operation forms part of an intensified campaign aimed at dismantling Al-Shabaab’s command structure;
• the outcome is assessed as operationally significant.

Somali authorities have reiterated their commitment to sustained pressure on Al-Shabaab, with a focus on:

• eliminating senior leadership,
• degrading operational infrastructure,
• and reducing the group’s capacity to conduct attacks against civilians and state institutions.

Strategic Assessment (ASA)

Taken together, these developments illustrate a coordinated security approach by the Somali government:

• Externally, Mogadishu is locking in durable partnerships—such as with Saudi Arabia—to support long-term force development and institutional resilience.
• Internally, Somali intelligence and security forces are maintaining kinetic momentum against Al-Shabaab to prevent strategic regrouping.

The timing is notable. As Somalia continues military operations against insurgent groups, sustained international partnerships are increasingly critical to prevent security vacuums once frontline operations subside.

The Saudi-Somali agreement also carries broader regional implications:

• it strengthens Gulf engagement in Horn of Africa security,
• reinforces Saudi Arabia’s role as a security actor beyond the Arabian Peninsula,
• and potentially introduces new funding, training, and doctrinal influences into Somalia’s security architecture.

Conclusion

Somalia is entering a phase where security sector reform and counter-insurgency operations are being pursued in parallel, rather than sequentially.

The defence agreement with Saudi Arabia provides a structural foundation for long-term military capacity-building, while ongoing NISA-led operations signal that Mogadishu intends to sustain pressure on Al-Shabaab’s leadership and operational networks.

From an ASA standpoint, the convergence of these tracks suggests a cautious but deliberate move toward greater Somali security autonomy, contingent on effective implementation, coordination with partners, and the continued degradation of insurgent capabilities.

Geographic Focus: Horn of Africa – Somalia / Red Sea–Gulf Interface