Great Power Rivalry in North Africa

Russia’s Expanding Influence in Libya and the Sahel

Russia is strengthening its military presence in eastern Libya, particularly in areas controlled by Marshal Khalifa Haftar. Unlike in other African regions, Haftar is paid by the Russians to use these facilities, which serve as gateways to Chad and Sudan—two crucial areas for Russia amid the ongoing Sudanese civil war.

Meanwhile, Chad is shifting its alliances, having ended France’s military presence and increased cooperation with China, Russia, and Turkey. The country has also sided with Sudanese rebel leader Mohammed ‘Hemetti’ Dagalo, further complicating the geopolitical landscape.

U.S. Military Cooperation with Algeria

AFRICOM has intensified its engagement in North Africa, recently signing its first-ever security cooperation agreement with Algeria. This memorandum of understanding (MOU), though non-binding, aims to foster collaboration in counterterrorism, military training, and maritime security. Despite Algeria’s historically strong ties with Russia, tensions between the two nations persist, and the U.S. is seeking to leverage this opening.

Russia’s Supply Routes and Guinea’s Role

A key challenge for Russia remains securing supply routes to its African operations, particularly in the Sahel and Central African Republic. Recent reports indicate that over 100 Russian military vehicles were transported through Guinea’s port of Conakry. While Guinea has not fully aligned with pro-Russian regimes in the region, this development raises questions about its stance and the level of oversight over port activities.

Russia’s Economic and Diplomatic Strategies in Africa

Russia is increasing its diplomatic efforts on the continent, with Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov reaffirming Africa as a “natural ally.” The establishment of a new African Cooperation Department within Russia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs reflects this commitment. However, despite attempts to boost commercial diplomacy, trade remains one-sided, with Russia exporting significantly more to Africa than it imports.

Additionally, Russia aims to use platforms like the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) to attract African business leaders. However, scepticism remains due to limited engagement with Africa’s major private-sector companies, many of which fear secondary sanctions from the West.

Can Russia and China Replace USAID in Africa?

With USAID’s role in Africa diminishing, Russia and China see an opportunity to expand their influence through medical aid. Russia has promoted its involvement in African healthcare, including assisting Zimbabwe in its fight against cholera. However, doubts persist about the effectiveness of Russian aid, given its track record of over-promising and under-delivering, particularly in areas such as HIV/AIDS treatment.

Conclusion

The geopolitical landscape in North Africa is rapidly evolving, with Russia seeking to expand its military and economic footprint, while the U.S. counters through strengthened alliances, particularly in Algeria. Meanwhile, shifts in Chad and Guinea suggest a broader realignment of power dynamics across the region. However, Russia’s efforts to deepen economic ties and replace Western aid remain constrained by logistical challenges, credibility issues, and strategic limitations.