Guinea’s Transition Timeline Expired

Transition Deadline and Protests
Guinea’s transition timeline ended on December 31 without clear plans for the next steps or a schedule for elections. Opposition groups and civil society organizations announced they no longer recognize the transitional government. Protests in early January turned violent, with clashes between demonstrators and security forces, signaling increasing instability. If restrictions on political parties persist or worsen, protests are expected to grow, potentially uniting multiple grievances.

Violent Incident at Nzérékoré Football Match
On December 1, a football match in Nzérékoré turned violent after a controversial referee decision. Security forces intervened using tear gas and other measures. The official death toll was 56, but some civil society groups claim over 135 deaths. The game was organized in honor of General Mamadi Doumbouya, the transitional leader.

Fuel Shortage Adds Strain
Around December 20, Guinea faced a fuel shortage, reportedly due to bad weather delaying a supply ship. Long lines formed at gas stations, and unconfirmed reports suggested black market fuel prices spiked. A supply ship arrived on December 31, but it’s unclear if it resolved the crisis.

Protests and Crackdowns in January

• December 25: The Forces Vives de Guinée (FVG) reiterated their call for civilian-led governance starting in January 2025 and planned protests for January 6.
• January 5: Conakry’s governor banned the protests, but clashes broke out, including in Koloma, where arrests were made.
• January 6: Protesters defied the ban, leading to heavy security deployment. A 20-year-old protester died during clashes on the city’s outskirts.
• January 9: The CNRD announced elections would happen before the end of 2025, with a constitutional referendum likely by June 30, paving the way for elections starting in October.

Delayed Transition and Political Challenges

Throughout 2024, the CNRD insisted that elections wouldn’t occur before the year’s end but didn’t propose a new timeline. In his New Year’s speech, General Doumbouya outlined an electoral sequence: municipal, legislative, and finally presidential elections. However, his lack of dates angered civil society.

Progress on prerequisites like a national census or election logistics has been slow. Critics also claim that provisions in a new draft constitution could allow Doumbouya to run for president despite earlier promises not to. This uncertainty fuels public frustration.

Human Rights Concerns and Political Restrictions

Arrests and Disappearances

• December 3: Journalist Habib Marouane Camara was arrested and remains missing.
• December 27: Opposition leader Aliou Bah was detained for allegedly insulting General Doumbouya.
• Prominent activists Oumar Sylla and Mamadou Billo Bah, kidnapped in mid-2024, also remain missing.

Dissolution of Political Parties
In late 2024, the CNRD dissolved 53 political parties and suspended 54 others. Many opposition groups were included, further restricting political activities.

Rising Discontent and Challenges Ahead

Guinea’s ongoing struggles, including fuel shortages, political restrictions, and forced disappearances, are driving public discontent. Although opposition groups currently lack the organization to mount a significant challenge, tensions may rise if:

Doumbouya runs for president.

Essential goods and services remain unreliable.

Political and civil liberties continue to be suppressed.

Isolated protests and unrest are expected to continue, particularly in Conakry. Security force crackdowns during unrest could increase tensions and create opportunities for crimes, adding to the instability.