Libya: Political Deadlock, Security Fragility, and UNSMIL’s Strategic Realignment Ahead of Elections

1. Expected Security Council Action

The Security Council is scheduled to receive its regular 60-day briefing on Libya in December. Special Representative Hanna Serwaa Tetteh, Head of the UN Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL), will brief members on the political stalemate, the fragile security environment, and ongoing humanitarian concerns. This session follows the Council’s adoption of resolution 2796 in October, which extended UNSMIL’s mandate for one year and formally endorsed the recommendations of the recent strategic review aimed at reshaping the mission’s operational posture.

2. Political Stalemate and Institutional Fragmentation

2.1 Rival Governments and Legislative Deadlock

Libya’s political process remains paralysed by the enduring standoff between competing authorities. The internationally recognised Government of National Unity (GNU), based in Tripoli and led by Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Mohammed Dbeibah, maintains the support of the High State Council (HSC). Opposing it is the eastern-based Government of National Stability (GNS), headed by Prime Minister Osama Hamad and backed by the House of Representatives (HoR) and the Libyan National Army (LNA) under General Khalifa Haftar.

The parties remain deeply divided over electoral legislation required to organise long-overdue national elections. Central to the dispute is whether a unified interim government should be created to oversee the electoral process—an approach advocated by the GNS and the HoR but firmly opposed by the GNU and influential segments of the HSC. Since the cancellation of the 2021 elections, neither side has demonstrated willingness to compromise, maintaining the institutional fragmentation that continues to impede political transition.

2.2 Strategic Review and UNSMIL’s Mandate

In advance of UNSMIL’s mandate renewal, the Secretary-General submitted a comprehensive strategic review assessing the mission’s structure and recommending measures to increase effectiveness. The review emphasised that UNSMIL’s core mandate remains facilitating a political resolution to the Libyan conflict. Accordingly, it advised consolidating workstreams to prioritise political engagement and strengthening the economic track, given its importance to Libya’s stability and political reintegration.

The review also underlined the need for stronger engagement on human rights and rule-of-law issues, framing them as integral components of the political process. It recommended that UNSMIL fully utilise the UN’s convening power to lead and support the Berlin Process, including the working groups set up under the 2020 ceasefire agreement. On the security track, the review advised shifting focus from ceasefire monitoring to confidence-building measures and the unification of military and security institutions.

2.3 Operational Presence and Resource Challenges

The review called for a stronger, more consistent presence in Libya’s east and south—particularly in Benghazi and Sabha—to reinforce the mission’s credibility and inclusivity. However, these expansions will require significant resources at a time when the UN faces a systemic liquidity crisis. The review therefore recommended internal resource reallocation, cost-saving efficiencies, and greater reliance on external support services. Resolution 2796 endorsed these recommendations, but implementation will depend on available funding and the Council’s continued support.

3. Recent Developments on the Ground

3.1 Local Elections and UNSMIL Engagement

On 18 October, UNSMIL welcomed the successful conduct of municipal elections in 16 municipalities across eastern, central, and southern Libya. These elections had been delayed from August due to targeted disruptions, security incidents, and political interference. UNSMIL commended the High National Elections Commission (HNEC) for managing a total of 91 municipal elections nationwide over the past year under challenging conditions.

3.2 October Security Council Briefing

During her briefing on 14 October, Tetteh highlighted the absence of progress on the political roadmap designed to transition Libya toward national elections and unified institutions. The roadmap outlines three essential pillars: establishing a viable electoral framework; unifying institutions under an agreed interim government; and initiating structured dialogue on governance, economic, security, and reconciliation issues. Tetteh urged political leaders to recommit to these objectives but warned that UNSMIL may seek the Council’s support to pursue alternative pathways if the impasse persists.

4. Human Rights Developments

On 11 November, Libya underwent its fourth Universal Periodic Review at the Human Rights Council in Geneva. Acting Foreign Minister Eltaher Salem M. Elbaour presented progress on recommendations from previous reviews and reaffirmed Libya’s commitment to accountability and the protection of human rights despite prevailing challenges.

The Working Group adopted its UPR report on 14 November. It includes observations from Libya’s national report as well as assessments compiled by OHCHR, providing an updated overview of the human rights situation across the country.

5. Key Issues and Options for the Security Council

5.1 Security Fragility and Ceasefire Risks

The Council remains deeply concerned about the fragile security environment in Libya. The violent escalation in Tripoli in May, although contained, demonstrated how quickly violence could spiral and threaten the 2020 ceasefire. UNSMIL continues to warn of military build-ups around Tripoli, urging all factions to avoid actions that could trigger renewed conflict.

The Slovenian presidency could consider inviting a civil society representative to an informal meeting to provide perspectives on underlying social tensions and risks.

5.2 Supporting the Roadmap for Political Transition

A central issue is how best to support UNSMIL’s roadmap for a Libyan-led and Libyan-owned political process. Council members recognise that elections cannot be held without a political compromise between the GNU, GNS, HoR, and HSC. A possible option is a presidential statement reaffirming support for the roadmap, building on the press statement issued in September.

5.3 Implementation of Resolution 2796 and UNSMIL Strategic Review

Resolution 2796 mandates the Secretary-General to report on UNSMIL’s implementation of the strategic review’s recommendations. Given the UN’s financial constraints under the UN80 initiative, Council members may request a closed briefing to assess whether UNSMIL can feasibly implement the expanded engagement and presence outlined in the review.

6. Council Dynamics

Council members remain unified on the principle that Libya’s political process must be Libyan-owned and inclusive. They broadly support UNSMIL’s mediation efforts and the need for elections that restore political legitimacy and institutional unity. During the October meeting, members welcomed Tetteh’s roadmap and stressed the importance of early steps such as reconstituting HNEC and adopting a constitutional and electoral framework.

While generally aligned in political terms, members differ on how to address the structural issues hindering progress. Some—such as Greece, the Republic of Korea, Russia, and the UK—emphasised that the HoR and HSC must complete initial milestones to translate the roadmap into practical outcomes. Others underscored broader institutional weaknesses and the need for sustained engagement on the economic and reconciliation tracks.

There also remains shared concern about the escalating security risks in Tripoli and the persistent fragility of the ceasefire. Council members have consistently called for restraint and for armed groups to avoid provocations that could trigger renewed conflict.