Pay to Access | Eastern DRC: Renewed Fighting Despite the Kinshasa–AFC/M23 Framework Agreement

Despite the Doha Framework Agreement’s promise of a permanent ceasefire, fighting has resumed almost immediately across North and South Kivu—exposing deep structural flaws in the deal and the absence of any functional verification mechanism.
What was sold as a breakthrough roadmap toward de-escalation now risks becoming another symbolic accord overshadowed by battlefield realities, territorial bargaining, fragmented command chains, and regional interference.

From renewed clashes around Civanga, Mweso, Masisi, and Walikale to the continued entrenchment of FARDC, Wazalendo, and AFC/M23 positions, eastern Congo faces a familiar paradox: peace agreements negotiated in foreign capitals while armed actors escalate operations on the ground.
Amid competing regional agendas, stalled monitoring structures, and parallel chains of command, the DRC’s conflict architecture is once again being reshaped by the gap between political commitments and operational actions.

This report contains:

• A consolidated field-based reconstruction of clashes in North and South Kivu after the Doha Framework Agreement, mapping where and why fighting resumed.
• Analysis of tactical behaviour by FARDC, Wazalendo, and AFC/M23, including ceasefire violations, air operations, and strategic territorial entrenchment.
• Assessment of structural weaknesses inside the ceasefire architecture—non-functional verification teams, absent guarantors, and diplomatic ambiguities.
• Detailed examination of regional interference involving Rwanda, Uganda, and Burundi, and how proxy dynamics undermine the agreement.
• Ground-level reporting on civilian displacement, blocked corridors, and deteriorating humanitarian conditions across key axes.
• Profiles of the Doha agreement’s core components, the negotiation timeline, and the practical gaps between policy language and operational feasibility.
• Forward-looking escalation indicators for Q4 2025–Q1 2026, including hotspot mapping, supply-line stress points, and risks of renewed urban pressure.

This in-depth analysis is essential for practitioners tracking ceasefire credibility, regional dynamics, and the evolving balance of power shaping eastern Congo’s security landscape.