Peace Undermined and New Alliances on the Horizon in DRC

The eastern regions of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) are once again at the epicentre of a mounting crisis, marked by escalating armed conflict, stalled diplomatic efforts, and urgent political manoeuvring. This mineral-rich yet volatile area faces intensified violence that threatens to spiral out of control, prompting unprecedented international warnings and renewed mediation attempts. According to intelligence and field assessments from Africa Security Analysis (ASA), the situation remains highly fragile, with multiple actors vying for influence amid deepening instability.

U.S. Raises Travel Advisory to Level 4, Signalling Severe Risk

Reflecting a sharp deterioration in security conditions, the U.S. Department of State has upgraded its travel advisory for the DRC to Level 4: Do Not Travel. This designation places the country alongside some of the world’s most dangerous destinations, including Afghanistan, Haiti, and Burkina Faso. ASA received reports of a surge in armed clashes, kidnappings, violent crime, and terrorist activity concentrated in the eastern provinces. Consequently, the U.S. Embassy in Kinshasa has suspended visa services and urged all American nationals to leave immediately, underscoring the rapid erosion of personal safety and the collapse of effective security enforcement on the ground.

Breakdown of Peace Process as M23 Rebels Withdraw from Doha Talks

Diplomatic efforts to resolve the conflict in eastern DRC have suffered a critical blow with the M23 rebel group’s withdrawal from peace negotiations in Doha, Qatar. ASA sources indicate this abrupt departure marks a significant collapse in dialogue between the rebels and the Congolese government, casting doubt on near-term prospects for a peaceful settlement. This development has raised alarms about renewed fighting, threatening to exacerbate an already fragile security environment.

M23 Announces Military Offensive on Pinga

In a direct consequence of the failed talks, M23 has declared its intention to launch an offensive on Pinga, a strategically vital town in Walikale territory, North Kivu province. ASA’s field assessments highlight that this planned offensive risks further destabilizing the region, endangering civilian populations, and aggravating humanitarian conditions. The escalation threatens to complicate regional peacekeeping missions and deepen the conflict’s broader ripple effects across eastern Congo.

Political Developments Signal Attempts at National Cohesion and Mediation

Amid the security turmoil, various political actors have stepped forward in efforts to restore dialogue and promote national unity:

• Opposition leader Martin Fayulu has formally requested a meeting with President Félix Tshisekedi to address the crisis. ASA sources confirm that President Tshisekedi has expressed willingness to engage in dialogue, emphasizing the need for national cohesion. However, analysts caution that this move may also serve as a strategic effort to buy time. A critical question remains whether President Tshisekedi will support the dialogue format proposed by the National Episcopal Conference of Congo (CENCO) and the Church of Christ in Congo (ECC)—a format reportedly favourably received by Joseph Kabila, Rwandan President Paul Kagame, and several African leaders. Tshisekedi appears to be balancing reinforcing his U.S.-backed agreements while preparing dialogue with opposition factions to form a new government composed of what he calls “dignes fils de la RDC” (worthy sons of the DRC).
• A joint delegation from CENCO and ECC is scheduled to meet with President Tshisekedi around June 16 to present their “Pact for Peace and National Cohesion”, aiming to address the humanitarian and security challenges in the eastern provinces.
• Further amplifying mediation efforts, former Nigerian President Olusegun Obasanjo is expected to arrive in Goma on June 8 under the African Union’s auspices. This suggests that Obasanjo’s visit signals a renewed regional push to stabilize eastern DRC through diplomatic engagement.

Conclusion: Emerging Alliances and Rising Risks

From the perspective of Africa Security Analysis, the situation in eastern DRC is extremely volatile and unpredictable. The recent surge in violence, the collapse of peace talks, and the heightened international travel advisories point to a deepening crisis threatening regional stability and humanitarian wellbeing.

Crucially, according to some analysts, the presence of former President Joseph Kabila in Goma introduces a potentially destabilizing factor. His return may signal the formation of a new alliance encompassing various armed groups and civilian opposition factions united against President Félix Tshisekedi’s administration. If this coalition consolidates, it will pose a significant challenge to the current political order and could ignite intensified conflict across North Kivu and adjacent provinces.

This emerging alliance risks undermining ongoing mediation efforts by regional actors and the African Union, including the upcoming mission led by former Nigerian President Obasanjo. Moreover, it complicates the broader security landscape by potentially aligning disparate rebel and opposition forces around a common political objective, increasing the likelihood of prolonged instability.

In summary, while diplomatic and peace-building initiatives remain vital, Africa Security Analysis warns that without effective containment of these armed alliances and constructive political dialogue, eastern DRC may face a sustained period of violence and fragmentation. The coming weeks will be critical in determining whether fragile peace holds or if the region descends further into chaos. Africa Security experts on the ground believe that the new horizon will see the emergence of two opposing alliances: one based in the West, comprising opposition groups supporting President Félix Tshisekedi, and another large coalition in the East, established to confront Félix Tshisekedi’s government and including former President Joseph Kabila.