Qatar’s Mediation Efforts to Address the Crisis

Amid these tensions, diplomatic initiatives have intensified, led by Qatar’s mediation efforts. Following a pivotal meeting on March 18, 2025, between Congolese President Félix Tshisekedi and Rwandan President Paul Kagame, Qatar invited delegations from the AFC/M23 rebel group, Kinshasa, and Kigali to continue discussions in Doha. These efforts aim to complement existing regional processes, including roadmaps established by the East African Community (EAC) and the Southern African Development Community (SADC).

The AFC/M23 delegation, headed by Bertrand Bisimwa, included key figures such as Colonel John Imani Nzenze and René Abandi. Discussions centered on halting the group’s advances in the eastern DRC. Notably, the AFC/M23 announced their withdrawal from Walikale-Centre in North Kivu—a move acknowledged by Qatar. While representatives from Kinshasa and Kigali were present, no direct exchanges between Kinshasa officials and M23 delegates have been confirmed.

Continued Risk of Escalation Between Burundi and Rwanda
The potential for military escalation between Burundi and Rwanda remains a significant concern, despite ongoing efforts by both nations to prevent direct conflict. The proximity of their forces in the eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), coupled with mutual distrust, heightens the risk of miscalculation and could lead to a broader regional war.

Burundian President Évariste Ndayishimiye, speaking on March 24 and 25, issued warnings of an alleged Rwandan plan to invade Burundi. In an interview with @BBCAfrica, he referred to "credible intelligence" supporting his claims. These statements further highlight Burundi's lingering suspicions of Rwanda's intentions, despite recent bilateral attempts to de-escalate tensions through defense meetings initiated in February.

The perception of existential threat between the two nations has historical roots, fueled in part by their respective affiliations with opposition rebel groups operating in the eastern DRC. This antagonism is exacerbated by active hostilities: Burundian troops are engaged in combat with Rwandan-backed M23 rebels, while Rwandan troops reportedly prioritize targeting Burundian soldiers, according to UN assessments. With thousands of troops from both countries deployed in the region and aligned with opposing sides—Burundi supporting the Congolese army and Rwanda backing the M23—the potential for escalation remains pronounced.

Key Discussions in Goma: Withdrawal of SAMIRC
On March 28, 2025, leaders from the AFC/M23 and SAMIRC convened in Goma to address troop withdrawals, infrastructure restoration, and regional security. The meeting highlighted several critical agreements:

● The AFC/M23 committed to facilitating the immediate withdrawal of SAMIRC troops with their weapons and equipment, while leaving behind all FARDC arms and equipment.
● Coordination of SAMIRC troops’ freedom of movement was emphasized to ensure smooth withdrawal, adhering to agreed principles.
● A joint technical team will evaluate Goma International Airport’s condition, laying the groundwork for its reopening.
● The SADC pledged to support the airport’s reconstruction to expedite troop withdrawals.
● Plans were made for follow-up joint meetings between SADC and AFC/M23, with dates and locations to be determined.
● Continued collaboration between SADC and AFC/M23 representatives was agreed upon to maintain momentum in resolving the crisis.

The reconstruction of Goma International Airport is a cornerstone of broader stabilization efforts in the eastern DRC. South Africa, in coordination with Zambia, Malawi, and Tanzania, is leading this project. The airport’s rehabilitation is expected to facilitate troop movements and foster long-term economic recovery.

A joint technical team will conduct assessments of the airport’s runway, terminal, and air traffic control systems, addressing immediate security concerns and enabling safe troop departures. Long-term objectives include boosting regional commerce, improving transportation, and supporting humanitarian operations.

This initiative reflects a unified commitment to regional stability, as outlined in an agreement signed by General Sultani Makenga for AFC/M23 and General Ibrahim Michael Mhona for SADC. Attention now shifts to the execution of these plans, with regional and international stakeholders monitoring progress closely.