Sahel Security Monthly Summary May 2025 Power Consolidation and Militant Expansion

MALI: Political Crackdown Deepens as Armed Groups Expand Operations

In early May, tensions rose in Mali as over 100 political parties and civil society groups protested in Bamako against a proposal to dissolve political parties and extend the rule of General Assimi Goïta for five more years without elections. Demonstrators demanded immediate elections and denounced authoritarianism.

On 7 May, authorities suspended all political party activities, citing public order concerns, just days before a planned opposition rally. By 13 May, the transitional government had repealed key political laws and officially dissolved all political parties and affiliated groups. These moves reflect a clear consolidation of executive power and a crackdown on dissent, raising the risk of future unrest, especially in urban areas like Bamako.

Rising Militant Activity Across Regions

Meanwhile, extremist violence continued across Mali. In the north, al-Qaeda-linked JNIM enforced a blockade on Gossi starting 3 May, clashing with government forces and threatening civilians. In central regions like Ségou and Mopti, JNIM used drones and IEDs in coordinated attacks targeting army checkpoints, local militias, and civilians. The group also collected taxes (Zakat), delivered ideological sermons, and signed survival agreements with communities, signaling deeper influence in areas where the state is largely absent.

In southern regions, JNIM attacked commercial sites, disrupting private businesses in Kayes and Koulikoro.

Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (ISSP) remained active in Gao and Ménaka. On 1 May, ISSP reportedly amputated civilians during a market in Talataye, and later abducted people and livestock near Tessit and Amasrakad. A deadly internal leadership conflict occurred in Indelimane on 31 May. ISSP also clashed with JNIM in N’Tillit and targeted gold mining sites at N’Tahaka. The group continues to control parts of the Algeria–Mali corridor, intercepting vehicles for contraband.

Conclusion

May saw Mali’s transitional authorities tighten their grip on power by dissolving political structures and suppressing dissent. At the same time, extremist groups expanded their reach and influence across the country, increasingly filling the void left by a retreating state. While protests remain largely peaceful, the risk of localized unrest persists amid political repression and ongoing violence.

BURKINA FASO: JNIM Escalates Attacks in Sahel and East Regions

Burkina Faso continues to face mounting pressure from the al-Qaeda-linked group JNIM, which has intensified attacks against state forces, especially in the Sahel and East regions.

On 11 May, JNIM launched a major assault on Djibo, in Soum Province, overrunning the military camp, looting facilities, burning public infrastructure, and executing captives. Images later showed militants inside the military commander’s office and on top of a key monument, symbolically challenging state authority.

Just two days later, on 13 May, JNIM reportedly killed around 60 soldiers in an attack on Diapaga, Tapoa Province, in the East. The back-to-back strikes, in distant regions, demonstrate JNIM’s ability to conduct large-scale, coordinated operations, exploiting gaps in Burkina Faso’s security structure.

The assault on Djibo — a town effectively under siege since 2022 — targeted not just military assets, but also symbols of state and regional alliances, such as the Alliance of Sahel States (AES) monument. The attack coincided with President Ibrahim Traoré’s return from a diplomatic trip to Moscow, suggesting a possible bid by JNIM to undermine state legitimacy and project strength.

In Diapaga, militants reportedly dismantled military infrastructure, freed detainees, and seized equipment, including surveillance drones. The East Region’s strategic location, linking the Sahel to coastal West African states, makes this loss especially concerning.

Though official casualty figures have not been confirmed, open sources suggest dozens to over 100 fatalities across both attacks. Such losses risk demoralizing security forces, raising doubts about leadership and cohesion, especially in remote and contested zones.

These attacks reaffirm JNIM’s persistent threat and expose critical vulnerabilities in Burkina Faso’s military response capabilities.

NIGER: Growing Extremist Threats and Operational Strain

Niger continues to face a deteriorating security environment, with extremist groups escalating attacks across multiple regions. Both al-Qaeda-affiliated JNIM and Islamic State-linked ISSP have increased their activity, targeting military outposts, convoys, and humanitarian operations.

On 5 May, an ambush in Dosso Region killed about 10 soldiers, with reports suggesting higher casualties. Ten days later, JNIM launched a major attack on the Mossi Paga military camp in Tillabéri Region. Although they temporarily breached the camp, air force intervention forced a retreat. In the following days, JNIM carried out more ambushes and IED attacks in Dosso and the Park W area, killing several soldiers.

On 18 May, extremists ambushed a convoy on the Dori–Téra corridor, killing three truck drivers. Two days later, an NGO compound in Banibangou was attacked, and UN staff were robbed nearby, leading to suspended operations. On 25 May, ISSP killed 39 security personnel in an assault on a military post in Eknewan, Tahoua Region. The next day, a JNIM ambush in Falmey, near the Benin border, reportedly killed between 17 and 44 soldiers.

At the same time, signs of unrest within Niger’s military emerged, including refusals to deploy in Ayorou and Zinder due to equipment shortages and leadership concerns. From 15 to 28 May, Niger hosted the AES-led “Tarhanakal” military exercise in Tillia, even as extremist attacks surged in surrounding areas.

Persistent and Expanding Threat

Extremist groups continue to challenge Niger’s military across a wide area. Tillabéri remains a hotspot, with JNIM active in Torodi, Say, and Gotheye, and ISSP operating further north in Kokorou and Sakoira. Attacks on key road corridors, especially the Dori–Téra axis, expose vulnerabilities in commercial and humanitarian logistics, worsened by the 2023 closure of the Niger–Benin border.

The back-to-back attacks in Eknewan and Falmey underscore threats to fixed security positions, particularly along the Tahoua–Ménaka corridor. Reports suggest ISSP may have used drones offensively, a sign of growing extremist capabilities.

Internal Military Challenges

Operational pressure on Niger’s armed forces is mounting. Logistical shortfalls, low morale, and leadership dissatisfaction are affecting deployments. These challenges, combined with high casualty rates, risk undermining military effectiveness in critical regions.

While the AES joint exercises aim to strengthen regional coordination, the recent wave of attacks highlights the urgency of aligning military operations with on-the-ground realities and enhancing local stabilization efforts.