Security Council Forecast – Western Sahara (April 2025)
What’s Happening
In April, the Security Council will hold closed consultations on the UN mission in Western Sahara (MINURSO). Alexander Ivanko (Head of MINURSO) and Staffan de Mistura (UN Envoy) will brief the Council.
Recent Developments
The latest UN report (Oct 2024) highlighted some operational gains for MINURSO, especially around the berm—a long barrier separating Moroccan and Polisario-controlled areas. The mission has improved access in some places, but Morocco’s restrictions still limit MINURSO’s reporting and engagement. On the Polisario side, some contacts have resumed, but higher-level communication remains stalled.
In October, de Mistura proposed dividing Western Sahara between Morocco and a new independent entity. Both sides rejected the idea—Morocco insisted on its sovereignty; Polisario demanded self-determination.
Later that month, the Council renewed MINURSO’s mandate through resolution 2756, despite divisions among members.
Security Situation
Fighting has flared up again. Polisario launched missiles in November 2024, prompting Moroccan drone strikes that killed a top Polisario commander. More drone attacks followed in January 2025.
Main Issues
The core problem remains: no political solution is in sight. The Polisario’s 2020 withdrawal from the ceasefire has led to more violence. MINURSO still faces access issues, especially on the Moroccan side. Human rights concerns are growing, with no UN rights monitors allowed in since 2015.
The Council might consider hosting informal talks with regional actors or issuing a statement to encourage renewed negotiations.
Council Positions
Members remain divided. The U.S. backs Moroccan sovereignty. France and the UK support Morocco’s autonomy plan as a basis for talks. Some African members, like Sierra Leone, back Morocco, while Algeria supports Sahrawi independence. Other members are neutral or shifting positions.
Resolution 2756 negotiations were tense. Algeria felt excluded, while the U.S. reaffirmed its support for Morocco’s plan.
Outlook
With tensions rising and no agreement in sight, the Council faces pressure to revive peace talks and strengthen MINURSO’s role on the ground.
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