Security Situation in Burkina Faso: A Nation on the Brink

A Country Under Siege

Since 2015, Burkina Faso has been embroiled in a worsening conflict with Islamist insurgents, primarily in its northern and eastern regions bordering Mali and Niger. The insurgency, initially a spillover from Mali’s 2012 civil war, has grown in scope and intensity, with groups like Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal Muslimeen (JNIM), the Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (ISGS), and the homegrown Ansaroul Islam exploiting local grievances, ethnic tensions, and weak governance. By 2025, approximately 60% of Burkina Faso’s territory is reportedly outside government control, with jihadist groups launching coordinated attacks on military bases, civilian populations, and key infrastructure. A recent report warns that the Macina Battalion, a key JNIM affiliate, could seize Ouagadougou at any moment. The group has demonstrated its operational strength through simultaneous attacks across multiple provinces, including high-profile assaults on military bases in Djibo and Diapaga in May 2025. These attacks, which involved the use of captured anti-aircraft weapons and resulted in significant casualties, underscore the militants’ growing confidence and capability. The fall of Djibo, a strategic town in Soum Province, to JNIM fighters highlights the government’s diminishing hold on key population centres.

Collapse of the Armed Forces

The Burkinabè armed forces are struggling to contain the insurgency, hampered by internal divisions, low morale, and inadequate resources. The military junta, led by Captain Ibrahim Traoré since the September 2022 coup, has failed to deliver on promises to restore security. Traoré’s leadership has been criticized for its focus on pan-Africanist rhetoric and alignment with Russia, which has distracted from addressing the immediate security crisis. Reports suggest that unpaid salaries and insufficient equipment have led to defections from pro-government militias, known as Volunteers for the Defence of the Homeland (VDPs), further weakening the state’s defences.

The junta’s reliance on VDPs, rapidly expanded to include tens of thousands of civilians, has also fuelled ethnic tensions. Human Rights Watch documented massacres of over 130 ethnic Fulani civilians by security forces and VDPs in March 2025 during “Operation Green Whirlwind 2” in the Boucle du Mouhoun region. These killings, perceived as ethnically motivated, have deepened mistrust and driven some communities toward jihadist groups, who exploit grievances to bolster recruitment. JNIM’s retaliatory attacks on villages suspected of collaborating with the military have further escalated the cycle of violence.

Regional and Global Implications

The crisis in Burkina Faso is not confined to its borders. The Sahel has become the global epicentre of terrorism, accounting for 51% of terror-related deaths worldwide in 2024, according to the Global Terrorism Index. JNIM’s expansion into Mali, Niger, and northern Benin, coupled with ISGS’s control over parts of northern Burkina Faso and western Niger, raises the spectre of a contiguous jihadist-controlled territory stretching across the Sahel. The report warns of a potential “Islamic emirate” encompassing Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger, with hotspots in Benin, Togo, and Ghana. Such a development could transform the region into a hub for cross-border violence, fuelled by smuggling networks and ideological alliances.

The Islamic State’s Sahel Province and Boko Haram in the Lake Chad region are also showing signs of convergence, with field integration in some operations. This alliance could amplify the threat to coastal West African states, particularly along major trade routes like the Ouagadougou-Lomé and Niamey-Cotonou corridors. The W-Arly-Pendjari park complex, spanning Benin, Burkina Faso, and Niger, has become a haven for militants, further complicating regional security efforts.

The collapse of regional cooperation, marked by Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger’s withdrawal from ECOWAS in January 2025 to form the Alliance des États du Sahel, has weakened collective counterterrorism efforts. The dissolution of the G5 Sahel and the exit of French forces and MINUSMA have left a security vacuum that jihadists have exploited. Russia’s growing influence, including reported Wagner Group presence, has failed to stem the tide of violence, raising questions about the junta’s strategic priorities.

A Path to Collapse?

The report’s stark warning that “Ouagadougou is breathing its last breaths” reflects the junta’s fragile grip on power. A failed coup attempt in April 2025, allegedly involving military officers and jihadist leaders, underscores the internal threats facing Traoré’s regime. The possibility of another coup, potentially backed by Russian-aligned factions, adds further instability. If jihadist groups capitalize on this chaos, the establishment of an Islamic emirate could become a reality, with devastating consequences for the Sahel and beyond.

The crisis also poses risks to Europe and the United States, as uncontrolled migration routes through jihadist-controlled territories could become conduits for extremism. The report suggests that “the blazing arc is expanding toward Europe and America,” driven by the region’s instability and porous borders.

Recommendations

To avert total collapse, Burkina Faso and its partners must act urgently:

1. Strengthen Governance: Address local grievances, particularly ethnic tensions and economic marginalization, to reduce jihadist recruitment.

2. Reform Security Forces: Improve training, equipment, and oversight of the military and VDPs to prevent human rights abuses and restore morale.

3. Regional Cooperation: Revive multilateral efforts through frameworks like the Accra Initiative to counter cross-border threats.

4. International Support: Engage neutral mediators to facilitate dialogue between the junta and regional actors, while avoiding reliance on external powers with conflicting agendas.

Conclusion

Burkina Faso stands at a crossroads. The Macina Battalion’s advances, coupled with the junta’s faltering response, have brought the country to the brink of collapse. Without decisive action to address internal divisions, ethnic violence, and regional instability, the vision of an Islamic emirate could materialize, with far-reaching consequences for the Sahel and the world. The international community must prioritize support for governance and security reforms to prevent Burkina Faso from becoming a permanent hub of extremist violence.