Somalia at a Crossroads: Security Council Reviews UNTMIS Transition Amid Escalating Al-Shabaab Threats

Executive Assessment

In October 2025, the UN Security Council (UNSC) will hold a private meeting to review the situation in Somalia, focusing on the transition of the UN Transitional Assistance Mission in Somalia (UNTMIS), the evolving threat posed by Al-Shabaab, and the implementation of the AU Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM).

Special Representative for Somalia and Head of UNTMIS James Swan will brief the Council, alongside updates from the AU on AUSSOM’s mandate implementation and a session by Ambassador Eloy Alfaro de Alba (Panama), Chair of the 2713 Al-Shabaab Sanctions Committee.

The review comes at a critical juncture. Al-Shabaab has regained momentum across several regions, while the Somali federal government faces political divisions with federal member states, slowing progress on constitutional reforms and elections. At the same time, the phased transition of UNTMIS, due to conclude in October 2026, is entering a decisive phase.

Recent Security Developments

• Al-Shabaab Gains (2025):

– Militants recaptured key towns including Moqokori, Tardo, and Mahaas, reversing Somali National Army gains from 2022-23.

– Expanded presence in Harardhere (Mudug region), a strategic coastal hub.

• Major Attacks:

– July 2025: Al-Shabaab VBIED attack killed 20 Ugandan AUSSOM soldiers in Lower Shabelle.

– June–July: Attacks on Sabiid and Anole triggered Operation Silent Storm by Somali/AUSSOM forces.

• Somali Army Response:

– 1 August: Joint Somali-AUSSOM recaptured Bariire town, killing 100 militants.

– Supported by US AFRICOM airstrikes, which have also targeted ISIS cells in Puntland.

Political Landscape

• Federal Government vs States: Puntland and Jubaland accuse Mogadishu of power centralization.
• Opposition Mobilization: Formation of the Somali Salvation Forum (SSF) led by ex-President Sharif Sheikh Ahmed.
• Electoral Breakthrough: On 25 August, President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud and a SSF faction signed a framework for universal suffrage elections across councils, assemblies, and parliament.
• National Consultative Forum (June 2025): Addressed CT, constitutional reform, and elections—but boycotted by Puntland, Jubaland, and SSF, exposing persistent fractures.
• New Federal Member State (Aug 2025): Formation of the North East State (NES) in Sool region, recognized by Mogadishu, sparking clashes with Puntland and Somaliland over contested territory.

Mission Dynamics: AUSSOM and UNTMIS

• AUSSOM Deployment: Transition from ATMIS to AUSSOM delayed; AU extended UNSOS logistical support until December 2025 to ensure continuity.
• Troop Contributions: Burundian forces temporarily incorporated; Egypt assessed deployment options.
• UNTMIS Transition:

– Resolution 2753 (2024) mandated Phase I completion by 31 Oct 2025 and full transition by 31 Oct 2026.

– Somalia insists on national ownership, pushing for the handover of responsibilities to Somali institutions and the UN Country Team.

– US insists mandate termination must be “condition-based”, rejecting fixed timelines.

Key Issues Before the Security Council

1. UNTMIS Transition Pathway

• How to balance Somali calls for national ownership with the need for sustained UN oversight.
• Whether to commit to the 2026 end date or allow conditions on the ground to determine exit strategy.

2. Security Situation

• Al-Shabaab’s resilience and territorial gains remain a major threat.
• ISIS cells in Puntland add another layer of complexity.

3. AU Mission Financing

• Implementation of Resolution 2719 (2023) on financing AU-led peace support operations remains unresolved.
• Funding shortfalls risk undermining AUSSOM effectiveness.

4. Political Fragmentation

• Disputes between Mogadishu and member states jeopardize electoral reforms and constitutional review.
• Emergence of NES adds territorial disputes with Puntland and Somaliland.

Council Dynamics

• African Members (A3) + China & Russia: Favor a firm two-year transition timeline for UNTMIS.
• US & Western Partners: Prefer condition-based timelines, citing fragile security dynamics and fiscal constraints.
• Somalia’s Position: Stresses national ownership insists on phased transition, and seeks broader international support for stabilization.

Options for the Council

• Request Secretary-General’s October briefing to include a transition options paper for post-UNTMIS UN engagement.
• Mandate an integrated political–security compact linking Somali government priorities with continued donor/AU support.
• Leverage UN–AU consultations in Addis Ababa (Oct 2025) to align financing frameworks for AUSSOM.
• Strengthen Al-Shabaab sanctions enforcement, including measures against charcoal trade, extortion networks, and foreign funding flows.

Conclusion

Somalia stands at a critical inflection point:

• Security remains precarious as Al-Shabaab adapts and regains ground.
• Political consensus is fragile, with federal–state disputes undermining reforms.
• UNTMIS is on a fixed but contested transition timeline, while AUSSOM financing remains unresolved.

African Security Analysis (ASA) assesses that without coherent alignment of UNTMIS transition, AU operations, and Somali political reform, international support risks fragmentation. Al-Shabaab will continue exploiting divisions unless financing and governance gaps are urgently addressed.

ASA can support stakeholders by:

• Providing conflict early-warning and risk mapping for Somali theatres.
• Advising on UNTMIS transition sequencing and AUSSOM financing models.
• Facilitating federal–state dialogue frameworks to reduce fragmentation.
• Offering regional analysis on cross-border jihadist flows from Kenya, Ethiopia, and Puntland.