Somalia Under Siege

Al-Shabaab's Recent Surge and Security Challenges

Somalia continues to grapple with a complex and volatile security environment, marked by persistent threats from Al-Shabaab, ongoing military operations, and emerging regional tensions. Over the past two weeks, from May 5 to May 21, 2025, the country has witnessed significant security developments, including intensified militant activities, targeted assassinations, and international responses to the deteriorating situation. This article provides an overview of these events, drawing on recent reports to highlight the current dynamics.

Al-Shabaab’s Escalating Offensive

Al-Shabaab, the Al-Qaida-affiliated terrorist group, has launched a significant offensive in central Somalia, particularly in the Middle Shabelle and Hiraan regions. According to reports, the group has aimed to encircle Mogadishu, capturing strategic towns and challenging the Somali government’s control. These moves have raised urgent calls to bolster the Somali National Army’s presence to prevent potential attacks. The militants’ ability to seize key areas underscores their resilience despite years of counterterrorism efforts by the Somali government, the African Union (AU), and international partners.

A notable incident was the assassination of Commander Hujale in the Hiraan region, highlighting Al-Shabaab’s tactic of targeting high-value military figures to destabilize government forces. Additionally, a suicide bombing struck the Damaanyo military base in Mogadishu, where a recruitment camp was targeted. These attacks demonstrate Al-Shabaab’s continued use of sophisticated tactics, including suicide bombings and targeted killings, to undermine security and governance in the capital and beyond.

Infiltration and Internal Security Challenges

One of the most alarming developments is the reported infiltration of Al-Shabaab operatives into the Somali federal army. Member of ParliamentHassan Firimbi, who claimed that Al-Shabaab has embedded operatives within the military, posing a significant threat to internal security. The suicide bombing at the Damaanyo base, allegedly carried out by an infiltrated soldier, has further exposed vulnerabilities in the army’s vetting and recruitment processes. This infiltration undermines trust in the security forces and complicates efforts to combat the insurgency effectively.

The Somali government’s reliance on a “guarantor” system for recruiting former Al-Shabaab fighters has been criticized for bypassing formal vetting procedures, potentially allowing militants to infiltrate military ranks. This issue was evident in a February 2024 attack on an Emirati-run military base in Mogadishu, where a former Al-Shabaab defector, recruited without proper screening, killed 18 soldiers. Such incidents highlight the ongoing challenge of balancing rapid recruitment with robust security measures.

International and Regional Responses

The international community has taken note of Somalia’s precarious security situation. On May 15, 2025, the U.S. State Department issued a Level 4 travel advisory, urging citizens, particularly government employees, not to travel outside Mogadishu’s airport due to risks from crime, terrorism, civil unrest, kidnapping, piracy, and health concerns. This advisory reflects the heightened instability fuelled by Al-Shabaab’s activities and broader security challenges.

The African Union Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM), which replaced the AU Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) on January 1, 2025, continues to play a critical role. Recent agreements have allocated 11,911 personnel to AUSSOM, with contributions from Uganda, Ethiopia, Djibouti, Kenya, and Egypt. However, funding remains a critical challenge, with a post on X questioning the AU’s reliance on Western donors and suggesting that Al-Shabaab’s resilience may be linked to local support or alternative funding sources. The U.S. reportedly rejected an AU request to fund AUSSOM, raising concerns about the mission’s sustainability.

Tensions between Somalia and Ethiopia, stemming from Ethiopia’s memorandum of understanding with Somaliland for Gulf of Aden access, have also impacted regional security dynamics. However, recent mediation by Türkiye has led to a thaw in relations, with the Ankara Declaration signed on December 11, 2024, signalling a potential de-escalation. This development is crucial, as regional instability could further weaken Somalia’s fight against Al-Shabaab.

Humanitarian and Broader Implications

The security situation is compounded by Somalia’s dire humanitarian crisis. Recent posts and reports indicate that ongoing conflict, coupled with climate shocks like droughts and floods, has displaced thousands and exacerbated food insecurity. Approximately 4.4 million people are expected to need urgent food aid by the end of 2025, with inter-clan conflicts in Galmudug state further driving displacement. These conditions create fertile ground for Al-Shabaab to exploit societal divisions and expand its influence.

The Somali government’s offensive against Al-Shabaab, supported by international airstrikes from the U.S., UAE, and Ethiopia, has achieved some territorial gains. However, Al-Shabaab’s ability to conduct high-profile attacks, such as the August 2024 beach restaurant bombing in Mogadishu that killed 37 civilians, indicates that the group remains a potent threat. The combination of military setbacks, infiltration, and societal fractures has allowed Al-Shabaab to regroup and launch new offensives.

Conclusion

The past two weeks have underscored the fragility of Somalia’s security landscape. Al-Shabaab’s offensive in central Somalia, coupled with its infiltration of the military and high-profile attacks, poses significant challenges to the Somali government and its international partners. The U.S. travel advisory and concerns over AUSSOM’s funding highlight the international community’s apprehension about Somalia’s stability. While regional diplomatic efforts offer hope, addressing the root causes of insecurity—such as clan rivalries, weak governance, and humanitarian crises—remains critical. Without comprehensive strategies to strengthen security institutions, promote inclusive governance, and mitigate humanitarian challenges, Somalia’s path to stability will remain fraught with obstacles.