South Sudan: Erosion of the Revitalised Peace Framework and Escalating Risks of Systemic Breakdown

Executive Summary

South Sudan is entering a critical phase marked by the continued erosion of the Revitalised Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in South Sudan (R-ARCSS) and a simultaneous deterioration of the security, political, and humanitarian environment.

What was previously understood as a fragile post-conflict transition is increasingly taking on the characteristics of a pre-crisis environment, with multiple indicators pointing to a heightened risk of renewed large-scale conflict. Intensified clashes between government forces and opposition factions, combined with unilateral political actions and growing institutional fragmentation, are steadily weakening the already fragile foundations of the peace agreement.

South Sudan now appears to be approaching a systemic tipping point, where the convergence of political deadlock, military escalation, and humanitarian collapse may exceed the containment capacity of existing national and international mechanisms.

Security Dynamics: Escalating Violence and Territorial Volatility

The security environment has deteriorated significantly, with widespread hostilities involving the South Sudan People’s Defence Forces (SSPDF), the Sudan People’s Liberation Army-in-Opposition (SPLA-IO), and a range of affiliated armed groups and militias.

The scale and intensity of the violence appear to be the most serious since the signing of the 2018 peace agreement, indicating a breakdown in ceasefire discipline and command cohesion. Recent incidents, including large-scale attacks on administrative centres, have caused significant civilian casualties and triggered new waves of displacement. In several areas, armed confrontations have forced tens of thousands of civilians to flee, both within the country and across borders into neighbouring states.

Military operations in strategically sensitive areas, particularly near border regions, are also raising the risk of wider regional destabilization while exposing civilian populations to greater protection threats. At the same time, the ambushing of peacekeeping convoys and the imposition of restrictions on humanitarian and UN personnel point to an increasingly hostile operating environment for international actors.

Political Landscape: Fragmentation, Unilateralism, and Institutional Erosion

The political environment is becoming more fragmented and increasingly shaped by unilateral executive action.

The dismissal and appointment of officials without consultation, in ways that appear inconsistent with agreed transitional arrangements, are deepening mistrust among the parties. Legal proceedings involving key opposition figures further underscore the widening political divide.

At the same time, the fragmentation of opposition movements, combined with efforts to co-opt splinter factions into state structures, has altered the internal balance of power while weakening the inclusivity of the political process. These developments suggest a broader pattern of incremental power consolidation which, while potentially reinforcing short-term control, significantly undermines the long-term viability of the peace framework.

The cumulative result is a political environment in which the institutional foundations of the transition are being steadily weakened, reducing the prospects for a credible and inclusive electoral process.

Humanitarian Situation: Displacement and Protection Collapse

The humanitarian situation has reached critical levels as a result of escalating violence and deepening insecurity.

Large-scale displacement has been recorded across multiple regions, with hundreds of thousands of people forced from their homes. Cross-border movement into neighbouring countries is further increasing regional humanitarian pressure.

Reports of widespread looting of civilian infrastructure, including markets, health facilities, and humanitarian compounds, highlight the collapse of basic protection systems. Restrictions on humanitarian access, combined with insecurity and logistical constraints, are severely limiting the ability of aid actors to respond effectively to the growing crisis.

This widening gap between humanitarian need and response capacity is likely to become one of the most destabilizing features of the current phase.

Human Rights and Protection Risks: Movement Toward Atrocity Conditions

There has been a sharp rise in serious human rights violations, including targeted killings of civilians, coercive displacement, and the continued use of sexual violence as a tactic of conflict.

The persistence of conflict-related sexual violence, combined with weak accountability mechanisms and the failure to implement agreed protection frameworks, has created what is increasingly becoming a protection vacuum. The normalization of such abuses points to a dangerous conflict environment in which impunity is deepening and the costs of committing violations remain low.

As legal and institutional safeguards continue to erode and political competition becomes more militarized, the risk of mass atrocity crimes is rising significantly.

Structural Drivers: Peace Agreement Erosion and Capacity Constraints

The deterioration of the situation is rooted in the gradual collapse of key pillars of the R-ARCSS. Security sector reform remains stalled, the unification of forces is incomplete, and constitutional and electoral processes continue to face serious delays. These weaknesses are compounded by persistent financial and logistical constraints.

The lack of political will to implement critical provisions, together with limited resources, has produced a recurring cycle of delay, partial compliance, and institutional stagnation. The peace agreement increasingly appears to function less as a roadmap for transition and more as a nominal framework with diminishing operational relevance.

International Response: UNMISS Under Pressure

The United Nations Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS) remains a central stabilizing actor, particularly in the area of civilian protection. Its role, however, is coming under growing strain.

The mission faces mounting operational challenges, including restrictions on movement, attacks on personnel, and resource pressures linked to wider financial constraints within the UN system. The upcoming renewal of the UNMISS mandate is therefore likely to involve important debates over the scale of its electoral support role, the adequacy of current resources, and the need to adapt its mandate to a rapidly worsening environment.

While there appears to be broad agreement on the importance of maintaining UNMISS’ presence, international actors continue to differ on how much pressure should be applied to South Sudanese authorities and on the broader strategic direction of external engagement.

Regional Dimension: Spillover and External Pressure

South Sudan’s instability is increasingly shaped by the wider regional environment, particularly the ongoing conflict in Sudan.

Spillover effects, including displacement flows, arms movement, and economic disruption, are compounding domestic vulnerabilities and placing additional strain on already fragile institutions. The regional environment is therefore acting as a force multiplier of instability, raising the likelihood of cross-border escalation and making stabilization efforts more difficult.

Threat Assessment: Converging Risks to State Stability

South Sudan’s trajectory is currently shaped by several interconnected risks.

The danger of renewed civil war is rising as hostilities escalate between major armed factions. The peace agreement itself is steadily losing relevance as its core provisions remain unimplemented. Indicators of mass atrocity risk are increasing alongside wider human rights violations. Humanitarian conditions continue to worsen under displacement and restricted aid access. Governance structures are weakening, and institutional coherence is deteriorating. Regional spillover from Sudan is adding further instability, while growing operational constraints on UNMISS risk reducing the effectiveness of international stabilization efforts.

These risks are not developing in isolation. They are reinforcing one another in ways that increase the likelihood of systemic collapse if left unaddressed.

Strategic Outlook

South Sudan is shifting from a fragile post-conflict setting toward a high-risk instability environment in which the existing equilibrium is becoming increasingly unsustainable.

The central challenge is no longer simply preserving an incomplete peace, but preventing a slide into renewed large-scale conflict under conditions of weakened institutional control. Without immediate political recalibration, reinforced international engagement, and credible accountability mechanisms, the country could move into a phase of uncontrolled escalation.

More broadly, the South Sudan case reflects a wider shift toward more complex and multi-layered instability environments, where political fragmentation, localized armed violence, humanitarian deterioration, and regional spillover increasingly intersect. In such contexts, conventional analytical models that isolate political or security indicators are becoming less effective at capturing the full scale of emerging risk.

Future engagement is therefore likely to place greater emphasis on integrated analysis, combining political, security, economic, and humanitarian signals into more forward-looking assessments. Attention is also likely to shift toward anticipatory tools such as scenario-based analysis, escalation tracking, and cross-border risk mapping, in order to identify inflection points before they develop into systemic crises.

In this context, the ability to sustain analytical continuity across local, national, and regional levels will become increasingly important for actors seeking to preserve strategic positioning in a highly volatile environment.

Conclusion

South Sudan’s current trajectory reflects the convergence of structural and immediate risks that threaten to reverse the gains made since 2018.

The erosion of political trust, combined with escalating violence and mounting humanitarian distress, is steadily undermining the foundations of the peace process and increasing the likelihood of systemic breakdown.