The Chinese Mining Surge in Africa: Strategic Impacts and National Risk Outlook

Introduction

The global energy transition and rising technological competition have triggered a worldwide race for critical minerals. In 2024, Chinese mining acquisitions abroad surged to their highest level in more than a decade. With traditional Western jurisdictions (such as Canada, the U.S., and Australia) becoming less receptive to Chinese capital in strategic sectors, Africa has emerged as Beijing’s prime theatre for securing mineral access.

For African countries, this presents a dual-edged reality: the influx of capital and infrastructure on one hand, and the risks of dependence, opaque deals, and domestic instability on the other.

African Security Analysis (ASA) provides actionable intelligence, real-time monitoring, and tailored security insights to help navigate such evolving landscapes. With field teams across the continent and a robust analytical network, ASA equips governments, institutions, and partners with the tools needed to stay informed, alert, and ahead of the curve.

Strategic Overview of China's Mining Engagement in Africa

China’s strategic interests in Africa’s mining sector revolve around three priorities:

Securing access to critical minerals (cobalt, lithium, rare earths, copper, bauxite, and uranium) for its electric vehicle, battery, and defence industries.

Circumventing Western restrictions on Chinese acquisitions in OECD countries.

Consolidating long-term influence through tied infrastructure investments under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).

Africa now provides an ideal environment: abundant reserves, political volatility that eases bilateral negotiation, and weak regulatory oversight in many jurisdictions. However, this fast-paced engagement has revealed growing asymmetries in decision-making, governance, and benefit-sharing.

Country-by-Country Strategic Risk Matrix (Narrative Format)

1. Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC)

The DRC remains the global epicentre of cobalt production, accounting for over 70% of global supply. Chinese companies such as CMOC (Tenke Fungurume), Sicomines, and Zijin Mining dominate key sites. However, this dominance comes with strategic risks:

• The integration of Chinese firms into networks linked to armed groups and informal militias (especially in eastern provinces).
• The perception of political co-optation, as Chinese-backed deals are often facilitated through elite pacts with little transparency.
• Ongoing community unrest in mining zones such as Kolwezi, where locals have protested land seizures and ecological damage.

The DRC’s weak governance makes it vulnerable to resource capture rather than sustainable development.

2. Zambia

Zambia, one of Africa’s leading copper producers, has welcomed major Chinese players such as China Nonferrous Metal Mining Corporation (CNMC) and Sinomine. The new administration has restructured some mining codes, but vulnerabilities persist:

• High external debt exposure to China, raising concerns about sovereignty over key resources.
• Heavy reliance on copper exports to a single market, making the economy highly vulnerable to commodity price shifts and Chinese demand cycles.
• Weak environmental enforcement in remote mining areas, where oversight is minimal.

China’s leverage in Zambia stems not only from mining concessions but also from its dominant role in infrastructure financing and bilateral debt management.

3. Zimbabwe

Rich in lithium and platinum, Zimbabwe is central to China’s ambitions for EV battery supply chains. Firms like Huayou Cobalt and Sinomine have secured major stakes. However, this has triggered:

• Social tensions due to land expropriation and lack of local employment opportunities.
• Legal ambiguity: regulations governing foreign ownership and royalties are inconsistently applied, leading to allegations of favouritism.
• Elite clientelism, where Chinese firms allegedly use opaque channels to secure influence.

Zimbabwe’s institutional weakness poses a serious long-term risk for investment sustainability and public trust.

4. Mali

In Mali, gold is the most strategic mineral, with new Chinese entrants such as Chifeng Gold acquiring mines previously held by Canadian and South African firms. Post-2021 military coups have created a new political order:

• China is one of the few actors still willing to engage under the new junta, but this brings reputational risks and geopolitical isolation.
• The departure of Western firms has created a power vacuum in the regulatory environment.
• Local communities view Chinese miners with increasing suspicion, particularly in the Kayes and Sikasso regions.

As Mali's internal conflict continues, mining zones may become militarized or politicized, threatening long-term project viability.

5. Namibia

Namibia, with significant uranium and lithium reserves, has attracted attention from CNNC (China National Nuclear Corporation) and Xinfeng Investments. While Namibia boasts better regulatory systems than many peers, emerging risks include:

• Concerns over monopolistic behaviour by Chinese firms, particularly in lithium processing.
• Strained public discourse over environmental degradation near mines like Husab.
• Rising demands for more local beneficiation, as Namibia seeks to move beyond raw exports.

Namibia’s government faces a delicate balancing act: welcoming investment while enforcing sovereign mining standards.

6. Guinea

Home to some of the world’s largest bauxite reserves, Guinea is a key supplier to China’s aluminium industry via SMB and Chalco. However:

• Social protests have intensified, especially in Boké, where locals decry pollution and lack of benefits.
• The military junta has suspended various licenses and demanded new “win-win” terms, leading to legal unpredictability.
• There’s an absence of real industrial transformation—raw bauxite is exported without refining, limiting value addition.

If Guinea fails to recalibrate its agreements, it may find itself stuck in a neo-colonial extraction trap.

Opportunities for African States

Despite these risks, the situation provides African states with unprecedented leverage. Strategic actions could include:

• Renegotiating contracts to include local processing, community investment, and environmental safeguards.
• Mandating job quotas and technology transfer clauses in all new deals.
• Establishing sovereign mineral funds to stabilize revenues and invest in long-term infrastructure or education.
• Encouraging triangular partnerships (e.g., China-Africa-EU) to introduce balance and shared accountability.

Strategic Risks to Monitor (2025–2026)

Economic overdependence on Chinese markets could leave African economies exposed to external shocks.

Political elite capture may exacerbate inequality, reduce transparency, and weaken democratic institutions.

Community unrest in resource zones is likely to escalate if local grievances remain unaddressed.

Environmental degradation and regulatory evasion may create irreversible harm in ecologically sensitive zones.

Geopolitical fallout: excessive reliance on China may alienate other strategic partners, creating diplomatic rifts.

Independent Strategic Conclusion

African Security Analysis (ASA) assesses that the current trajectory of foreign — including Chinese — mining investment across the continent presents long-term sustainability challenges if not accompanied by structural reforms. A pattern of limited transparency, concentrated benefit distribution, and insufficient community engagement risks fuelling social tensions and weakening institutional trust.

To ensure that resource development supports long-term stability and inclusive growth, a shift is needed toward governance frameworks that emphasize transparency, equity, and national development alignment. African governments are encouraged to focus not merely on attracting more investment, but on fostering better investment: investment that is transparent, accountable, and development oriented.

Independent Perspective

• Establish independent mining commissions with powers to investigate and review contracts.
• Promote the public disclosure of all foreign mining agreements to enhance oversight by civil society and parliaments.
• Closely monitor foreign engagement, including Chinese operations, in zones sensitive to disarmament, demobilization, and reintegration (DDR), especially in the Great Lakes region.
• Encourage harmonization of mining codes at the regional level through the African Union to prevent regulatory arbitrage.
• Develop a continent-wide early warning system to track and respond to local tensions related to mining activities.

Reflection

The global competition for critical minerals will shape Africa’s strategic relevance for decades to come. Whether this era leads to transformational development or reinforces cycles of dependency depends on leadership, institutional strength, and regional coordination.

Africa’s mineral resources are not just economic assets — they are strategic levers. If governed effectively, they can power inclusive development; if mismanaged, they risk deepening inequalities and eroding sovereignty.

At African Security Analysis (ASA), we operate across nearly every country on the continent — including high-risk areas — enabling us to monitor emerging risks and provide real-time, actionable intelligence to decision-makers.

In this evolving geopolitical landscape, it is essential that African governments, regional bodies, and international partners work collaboratively. The continent’s mineral wealth must be managed in ways that prioritize the long-term interests of African societies, ensuring that development outcomes are not shaped by short-term incentives or external pressures.