UAE Aims to Replace Western Military Presence in Sahel Region

The recent diplomatic tour by UAE Minister of State for Foreign Affairs, Shakhbout bin Nahyan Al Nahyan, to Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger underscores Abu Dhabi’s growing ambition to assert its geopolitical presence in the Sahel. The visits come amid regional upheaval following military coups, waning French and Western influence, and escalating tensions—particularly between Algeria and the Sahel states.

This initiative by the UAE appears to be a calculated move to fill the power vacuum created by the retreat of France and other Western actors. With new players like Russia (through the Wagner Group), Turkey, and China entering the fray, the UAE is positioning itself as a key alternative partner. The geostrategic significance of countries like Niger and Mali—central to issues of security, migration, and energy—makes them particularly attractive to Emirati interests.

Discussions during the tour spanned defence cooperation, solar energy, agriculture, and healthcare—highlighting the UAE’s strategy of blending economic outreach with military diplomacy, a method previously applied in regions such as the Horn of Africa.

Abu Dhabi’s approach centres on leveraging financial aid, investment, and infrastructure development to secure long-term influence, possibly including military or intelligence footholds disguised as civilian or humanitarian operations.

The timing of this tour also coincides with a quiet but growing rift between the UAE and Algeria. Disputes over Libya, Palestine, relations with Turkey and Iran, and differing stances on political Islam have all contributed to the friction. The UAE's budding ties with Bamako, Ouagadougou, and Niamey—each on strained terms with Algiers—could be part of a broader strategy to counter Algeria’s regional clout.

Notably, the presence of Wagner forces in the Sahel doesn’t seem to be obstructing Emirati efforts, suggesting a pragmatic stance by the UAE that avoids direct confrontation with Russian interests. This adaptability enhances Abu Dhabi’s manoeuvrability in an increasingly crowded and complex geopolitical space.

Analysts suggest the UAE’s long-term objectives may include establishing logistical or security outposts, brokering renewable energy and mining deals, bolstering transitional regimes, and using these ties to influence broader regional dynamics—particularly vis-à-vis Algeria and Europe’s role in the Sahel.

Far from a routine diplomatic mission, the UAE’s engagement marks a significant shift in the region’s power dynamics. By presenting itself as a “non-colonial” actor that respects sovereignty and offers development-oriented partnerships, Abu Dhabi is redrawing the map of influence in the Sahel.

In contrast, Algeria now faces a new strategic dilemma: countering the UAE’s growing footprint in what it traditionally views as its own southern sphere of influence, amid intensifying regional rivalries.