UN Security Council – Libya Mandate Renewal and ICC Briefing Outlook (May 2025)

This analysis has been produced by Africa Security Analysis, based on the UN Security Council’s Monthly Forecast for May 2025.

Anticipated Council Action

In May, the UN Security Council is expected to adopt a resolution renewing for one year the authorisation allowing member states, acting individually or through regional organisations, to inspect vessels on the high seas off Libya suspected of breaching the UN arms embargo. This authorisation, which expires on 31 May, has been renewed annually since 2016. In addition, the Council will receive a biannual briefing from ICC Prosecutor Karim Asad Ahmad Khan on the Court’s ongoing investigations into crimes committed in Libya.

Recent Developments

The current maritime inspection mandate was last extended through Resolution 2733, adopted on 31 May 2024. It included a request for two implementation reports by the UN Secretary-General—at the six- and eleven-month marks. The first, released in November 2024 and covering the period from 15 April to 31 October, highlighted Libya’s fragile security environment, marked by recurrent clashes in Tripoli and western Libya, as well as rising tensions between western factions and the Libyan National Army (LNA) in the south-west. The report reiterated the importance of a robust and comprehensive arms embargo to contain violence, support the political process, and prevent the illicit circulation of weapons via air, land, and sea. At the time of writing, the second report had not yet been published.

According to the November report, the EU-led naval operation IRINI remains the only regional mechanism actively conducting maritime inspections under the Council’s authorisation. Between April and October 2024, IRINI conducted 2,192 hailing operations, 70 friendly approaches, and two actual inspections. Two additional attempts were aborted—one due to the flag state’s refusal to cooperate, and the other because the vessel exited operational waters. No seizures of illicit cargo were recorded.

ICC continues its investigations

Meanwhile, the International Criminal Court (ICC) continues its investigations into crimes against humanity and war crimes in Libya, under a mandate dating back to 15 February 2011. The arrest warrant against Saif al-Islam Qaddafi remains active, although he continues to evade capture.

In his previous briefing to the Council in November 2024, Prosecutor Khan announced the unsealing of arrest warrants for six individuals affiliated with the Al-Kaniyat armed group, accused of committing atrocities in Tarhuna. Khan urged Council members to support the enforcement of these warrants and reaffirmed the ICC’s commitment to impartial accountability. He also reported progress in investigations related to unlawful detention practices and crimes committed between 2014 and 2020.

Further judicial developments included the ICC’s issuance of an arrest warrant on 18 January for Osama Elmasry Njeem, accused of overseeing systematic abuses in Tripoli prisons since 2015. Although arrested shortly afterward in Italy, Njeem was released due to a procedural error and subsequently returned to Libya. The case has sparked a domestic investigation in Italy, with prosecutors examining whether senior officials—including Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni—may have violated ICC obligations.

Politically, Libya remains gridlocked over the organisation of national elections. In a 17 April briefing, Special Representative Hanna Tetteh described her recent consultations with Libyan stakeholders and outlined the UN Support Mission in Libya’s (UNSMIL) engagement with a newly formed Advisory Committee. The committee is expected to identify solutions to the electoral impasse and present its recommendations by the end of April.

Key Issues and Options

The immediate issue before the Council is the renewal of the maritime inspection authorisation. While this has been routine in past years, the 2024 resolution added enhanced provisions, notably expanded oversight by the 1970 Libya Sanctions Committee concerning the disposal of seized materiel. Council members may opt for a straightforward renewal or introduce additional adjustments.

As in previous years, members might organise an informal interactive dialogue with representatives of Operation IRINI to assess implementation. Regarding the ICC, Council members that are state parties may issue a joint statement reaffirming their support for accountability efforts in Libya following Prosecutor Khan’s briefing.

The Council is also expected to continue supporting a Libyan-led political process, with the goal of ending the electoral stalemate and reunifying Libya’s divided governance institutions.

Council Dynamics

Between 2016 and 2022, the maritime inspection authorisation was renewed unanimously. However, since 2023, Russia has abstained, citing doubts about the effectiveness of the mandate and accusing Operation IRINI of lacking transparency. In 2024, Russia—backed by China and the “A3 plus one” (Gabon, Ghana, Mozambique, and the UAE)—proposed that the 1970 Sanctions Committee formally approve the disposal of seized weapons. The six members ultimately abstained on the resolution, citing insufficient consultation by co-penholders France and Malta. In contrast, the United States and European Council members remain strong advocates of IRINI’s role.

Russia is also highly critical of the ICC, portraying the Court and its Prosecutor as politically biased and illegitimate. China has echoed these concerns, citing sovereignty issues. Several African Council members have also expressed longstanding discomfort with the Court’s perceived disproportionate focus on African cases.

By contrast, ICC state parties on the Council—including Denmark, France, Greece, Guyana, Panama, the Republic of Korea, Sierra Leone, Slovenia, and the United Kingdom—continue to express strong support for the ICC’s work in Libya.

The United States, not being a party to the Rome Statute, maintains a fluctuating stance on the ICC, depending on the administration in power. On 6 February 2025, former President Donald Trump issued an executive order imposing sanctions on the ICC and Prosecutor Khan, following the Court’s issuance of arrest warrants for senior Israeli officials over alleged war crimes in Gaza. A similar move had occurred in 2020, during investigations into Afghanistan, but those sanctions were later lifted by the Biden administration.