United States Policy in Somalia and the Horn of Africa: ASA Strategic Assessment

By African Security Analysis (ASA)

Executive Summary
ASA assessment identifies the Trump administration’s 2025 policy toward Somalia and its federal member states as heavily focused on counterterrorism operations, strategic hedging in the Horn of Africa, and selective engagement with semi-autonomous territories such as Somaliland and Puntland. U.S. policy reflects a dual approach: intensified military action against jihadist threats and targeted political-economic influence, with reduced emphasis on traditional humanitarian and development programs following USAID restructuring. Emerging U.S. interest in Somaliland recognition represents a potential shift in regional dynamics, with implications for Somalia’s federal cohesion, Red Sea geopolitics, and broader competition with China and other external actors.

U.S. Strategic Approach to Somalia

• Counterterrorism Focus: The United States under Trump prioritizes Somalia as a critical counterterrorism theatre. AFRICOM has intensified airstrikes against al-Shabaab and ISIS-Somalia, including July 6 and July 25, 2025 operations. ASA sources indicate these strikes reflect nearly double the kinetic activity compared to 2024, illustrating an aggressive pursuit-and-eliminate approach. President Trump publicly framed these strikes as targeted operations against threats to U.S. nationals, criticizing prior administrations for perceived inaction.
• Stability and Humanitarian Assistance: While FY2024 allocations for Somalia exceeded $1 billion, covering security, stabilization, and resilience programs, ASA analysis notes that Trump-era USAID restructuring and staff reductions have shifted operational priorities, limiting the capacity to deliver non-security humanitarian and development aid in FY2025 and beyond. Although programs such as food security received incremental funding (e.g., $29 million in December 2024), ongoing staffing cuts and program consolidations suggest that practical support to civilian populations may be constrained despite allocated budgets.
• Federalism and Territorial Integrity: U.S. policy continues to emphasize Somalia’s territorial integrity, rejecting fragmentation while encouraging political stability within the federal framework. Nevertheless, tension exists between Somalia’s federalism debates and U.S. strategic offers for exclusive military access in exchange for cooperation. Analysts note that reduced humanitarian engagement may encourage Somalia to seek alternative partners, such as Turkey, potentially shifting regional influence dynamics.

U.S. Posture Toward Somaliland

• Recognition Prospects: Somaliland remains unrecognized under the longstanding “One Somalia” policy. ASA analysis identifies growing U.S. interest in formal engagement, driven by countering Chinese influence, securing strategic positions in the Red Sea, and access to mineral resources. President Trump acknowledged Somaliland’s stability and democratic record in August 2025, signalling alignment with Project 2025 proposals advocating recognition.
• Strategic Incentives: Somaliland offers a base in Berbera and mineral access, positioning itself as a strategic partner. Congressional initiatives (H.R. 3992, H.R. 10402) support potential recognition, invalidating Somali territorial claims. Recognition would enhance U.S. influence in the Red Sea corridor and offer leverage in broader geopolitical contests.
• Challenges: Somalia continues to assert claims over Somaliland, offering competing incentives including exclusive base access. Recognition could provoke Mogadishu, risking destabilization of Somalia’s federal structure.

U.S. Engagement with Puntland

• Counterterrorism Integration: Puntland is operationally integrated into U.S. counterterrorism strategy. Airstrikes, such as the July 6, 2025 operation southeast of Bossaso, illustrate Puntland’s role in regional security operations. Local Puntland forces complement U.S. objectives through adaptive counterinsurgency.
• Federal Support and Aid: U.S. policy toward Puntland supports Somalia’s federal structure, though operational funding and development support are impacted by USAID restructuring. Puntland remains strategically important due to Bossaso port and as a forward operational base against ISIS-Somalia.
• Emerging Threats: Puntland faces challenges from al-Shabaab resurgence and regional Houthi expansion, which could complicate U.S. operations and security along the coast.

Strategic Implications

1. Counterterrorism vs. Development Constraints: Intensified U.S. strikes degrade jihadist capabilities but reduced USAID staffing and program restructuring limit non-security assistance, creating potential gaps in humanitarian support.

2. Somaliland Recognition as a Strategic Lever: Formal recognition could realign Horn of Africa geopolitics, enhancing U.S. Red Sea access while potentially destabilizing Somalia’s federal balance.

3. Federalism and Regional Balance: U.S. support for Puntland and selective engagement with Somaliland demonstrates nuanced federal management. Miscalculations could exacerbate secessionist tensions or inter-federal disputes.

4. Enduring U.S. Strategic Presence: Offers of military bases and port access suggest a potential for sustained U.S. influence, signalling a shift from short-term counterterrorism toward longer-term regional positioning.

Conclusion

ASA analysis concludes that the Trump administration’s 2025 policy reflects intensified military operations in Somalia with a strategic pivot toward Somaliland. Puntland continues to serve as a tactical partner for counterterrorism, while reduced USAID operational capacity may constrain humanitarian and development impact. The complex interplay of counterterrorism, federalism, and regional geopolitics creates a precarious environment where miscalculations could escalate instability. Careful calibration of security and developmental engagement remains essential to U.S. strategic objectives in the Horn of Africa.