Western Sahara 2025: Security Council Reviews MINURSO Mandate Amid Renewed Hostilities and Diplomatic Stalemate

Executive Summary

In October, the UN Security Council (UNSC) is scheduled to receive the Secretary-General’s annual report on Western Sahara and to deliberate on the renewal of the mandate of the UN Mission for the Referendum in Western Sahara (MINURSO), which expires on 31 October 2025.

The process unfolds against the backdrop of intensifying hostilities between Morocco and the Polisario Front, diplomatic manoeuvring by regional and international stakeholders, and persistent deadlock over the political status of the territory. The Council remains sharply divided, with the US, France, and the UK leaning towards Morocco’s autonomy plan while other members insist on the principle of self-determination for the Sahrawi people.

Recent Diplomatic Engagements

• Staffan de Mistura, Personal Envoy of the Secretary-General

– April 2025: Briefed Council members in closed consultations; signalled opportunities for regional de-escalation.

– September 2025:

• Met US Senior Advisor for Africa Massad Boulos, who reiterated that “genuine autonomy under Moroccan sovereignty” is the only feasible solution.
• Travelled to Algiers, meeting FM Ahmed Attaf, who reaffirmed support for direct, unconditional negotiations between Morocco and the Polisario Front under UN auspices.
• Held talks in Moscow with Russian Deputy FM Sergey Vershinin, who stressed the UN’s centrality and the need to preserve MINURSO’s capacity.
• Visited Tindouf camps, meeting Polisario Secretary-General Brahim Ghali.
• Met Morocco’s FM Nasser Bourita, who emphasized Rabat’s Autonomy Plan within sovereignty and territorial integrity.

• US Engagements

– July–August 2025: Senior US officials visited Algiers, MINURSO HQ in Laayoune, and Rabat. US delegations reinforced support for Morocco’s Autonomy Plan and assessed MINURSO’s operational challenges.

• Congressional Delegation: In Rabat, Congressman Mike Lawler described Morocco’s plan as the framework for “lasting safety and progress.”

Security Situation on the Ground

• Drone & Rocket Strikes:

– June 2025: Moroccan drone strike near Bir Lahlou killed three Algerian truck drivers.

– June 19: Moroccan drone targeted Polisario-linked vehicle near Mijek.

– June 27: Polisario rockets hit Smara, including one landing close to MINURSO team site; Morocco retaliated with a drone strike.

• Persistent Low-Intensity Hostilities:
  Morocco retains control of more than three-quarters of the territory, while the Polisario maintains sporadic attacks east of the berm.

– Moroccan projects, including a $1.2 billion port in Dakhla, reinforce Rabat’s economic integration of the region.

– Moroccan-origin settlers now make up nearly two-thirds of the ~500,000 residents.

Core Issues Before the Council

1. Renewal of MINURSO Mandate

• Whether to renew the mission without change or adapt its mandate to reflect operational and financial constraints under the UN80 reform process.
• Preserving MINURSO’s stabilizing role amid budgetary pressures.

2. Pathway to a Political Settlement

• Polisario Position: Insists on the Sahrawi people’s right to self-determination, supported by UNGA resolutions and ICJ’s 1975 advisory opinion.
• Morocco’s Position: Autonomy under Moroccan sovereignty is the only acceptable solution; growing international support for this plan.

3. Risk of Escalation

• Persistent low-to-medium intensity fighting risks sliding into wider escalation.
• Civilian and logistical risks to MINURSO staff highlighted by the June rocket strike near Smara.

4. Council Divisions

• US, France, UK: Support Morocco’s autonomy proposal as the most credible basis.
• Algeria and aligned states: Defend the Sahrawis’ right to self-determination.
• Russia & some others: Advocate maintaining neutrality, focusing on dialogue under UN auspices.

Options for the Council

• Mandate Renewal: Extend MINURSO’s mandate for another 12 months, with possible updates to reflect budget realities.
• Political Track: Issue a statement urging direct talks between Morocco and the Polisario, supported by Algeria, under the facilitation of the Personal Envoy.
• Operational Safeguards: Request the SG to report on force protection measures for MINURSO after recent attacks near its bases.
• Confidence-Building: Encourage renewed people-to-people engagement programs to ease humanitarian pressures in Tindouf camps.

Council Dynamics

• Western Members (US, France, UK): Increasingly align with Morocco’s Autonomy Plan.
• African Members (A3): Divergent positions; Sierra Leone recognizes Moroccan sovereignty, while Algeria defends the Sahrawis’ right to self-determination. Somalia maintains neutrality.
• Russia and China: Emphasize impartial UN-led negotiations, resisting unilateral approaches.
• Latin American Members: Mixed; Panama suspended SADR ties in 2024, supporting Morocco’s autonomy framework.

The negotiations on Resolution 2756 (2024) were highly contentious, with Algeria claiming its views were ignored. This underscores the difficulty of achieving consensus in October 2025.

Conclusion

Western Sahara remains locked in a protracted stalemate, with Morocco consolidating territorial and economic control while the Polisario sustains sporadic armed resistance. The risk of regional spillover persists, particularly with Algeria’s vocal backing of Sahrawi self-determination.

For the UN, MINURSO remains a fragile stabilizer but one under pressure from budgetary constraints, operational risks, and political deadlock. Without a revitalized political process, the mission risks being reduced to symbolic presence.

African Security Analysis (ASA) recommends that stakeholders:

• Support Staffan de Mistura’s mediation track with a clearer mandate for structured negotiations.
• Strengthen contingency planning for MINURSO protection amid drone/rocket threats.
• Map regional escalation risks tied to Algeria–Morocco competition.
• Explore hybrid mediation mechanisms involving AU or EU partners to break the deadlock.

ASA remains available to support international and regional actors with risk assessments, negotiation advisory, and scenario planning to navigate the Western Sahara file strategically.