2025 GUINEA Elections Announced Amid Doubts and Repression

On 12 May, Guinea’s Prime Minister announced that general and presidential elections will take place in December 2025, following a constitutional referendum set for 21 September 2024. However, a correction from the Presidency shortly after cast doubt on the timeline, as it stated only the presidency can officially announce election dates.

Opposition leaders and civil society remain sceptical, citing past broken promises by the ruling military junta, the Comité National du Rassemblement pour le Développement (CNRD). A previous pledge to hold elections and a referendum by the end of 2024 was not fulfilled.

Concerns deepened after opposition leader Aliou Bah (Model party) was sentenced on 28 May to two years in prison for insulting transitional President Mamadi Doumbouya via social media. This comes amid broader repression, including disappearances and arrests of critics, a continued ban on protests, and the October 2024 dissolution of 53 political parties — including the two former ruling parties whose leaders remain in exile.

Adding to tensions, the new draft constitution reportedly allows CNRD members, including Doumbouya, to run for office, reversing earlier promises that they would not be eligible.

Despite ongoing repression, pro-Doumbouya demonstrations were held in April in Kankan, Kindia, and Boké, even though public protests remain officially banned.

Opposition Boycott and Media Control

Most opposition parties say they have no confidence in the planned elections and are likely to boycott them. Their distrust has been reinforced by the CNRD’s 5 May announcement of a new election authority, replacing the previously independent electoral commission (CENI), which the opposition supports.

Media freedom is also severely restricted. Since May 2023, all private national radio and TV stations have been shut down, leaving only the state-controlled RTG as the main source of news. This limits access to balanced information and raises the risk of disinformation ahead of the referendum and elections.

Outlook

The political environment remains tightly controlled, and while civil unrest is expected as key dates approach, the protest ban, intimidation of opposition voices, and strong state response are likely to suppress large-scale demonstrations.

Protests in 2025 are expected to be small and localized, mostly in the capital, affecting movement and traffic rather than posing a broader threat to regime stability. However, the lack of media freedom and rising tensions may contribute to sudden shifts in the security landscape, especially as misinformation spreads online.