Escalating Security Crisis in South Sudan

The reporting period has been marked by escalating tensions, armed clashes, and political instability, further exacerbating an already fragile security environment.

Clashes in Nasir, Upper Nile State
Violent confrontations broke out in Nasir County, Upper Nile State, between the South Sudan People’s Defence Forces (SSPDF) and armed youth known as the White Army. The violence escalated following a marketplace attack on February 14. Reports indicate that SSPDF airstrikes targeted both Sudan People’s Liberation Army-in-Opposition (SPLA-IO) positions and civilian areas, worsening the humanitarian crisis. Thousands of residents fled, increasing displacement in an already conflict-ridden region.

Tensions in Juba
Security conditions in the capital, Juba, deteriorated due to a series of high-profile arrests and an armed attack on a northern military base. South Sudanese soldiers surrounded the residence of a senior official linked to political rivalries. The detentions of key allies of First Vice President Riek Machar, including the peacebuilding and petroleum ministers, raised concerns about the stability of the 2018 peace accord, which ended a civil war that claimed approximately 400,000 lives.

Previous reports from November 2024 highlighted heavy gunfire in Juba after President Salva Kiir dismissed intelligence chief Akol Koor Kuc, indicating a sustained period of political instability extending into March 2025.

Militia Advances and Regional Instability
Militia groups made advances in strategic border towns, including Nasir, further escalating insecurity. Posts on X described South Sudan as “slowly unraveling,” with conflicts reported across multiple regions, including Upper Nile, Warrap/Tonj, Western Bahr el Ghazal, and Western Equatoria. Additionally, cattle raids in Eastern Equatoria, Unity, and Warrap worsened instability in rural areas.

The ongoing conflict in Sudan has had spillover effects, contributing to security and economic pressures in South Sudan. Reports indicate an influx of fighters and disruptions in oil exports, further compounding the country’s challenges.

Humanitarian Crisis
The surge in violence across multiple regions has intensified the humanitarian crisis, leading to widespread displacement, food insecurity, and restricted access to essential services. The influx of over 970,000 returnees and refugees from Sudan since April 2023 has further strained resources, particularly in border areas such as Upper Nile, where cholera is spreading rapidly due to poor sanitation and overcrowding.

Political Fragility
The postponement of elections originally scheduled for December 2024 and delays in implementing the 2018 peace agreement have left communities vulnerable to renewed violence. The recent arrests in Juba signal potential fractures within the transitional government, posing a serious threat to the fragile peace process.

Economic Strain
With limited financial circulation and oil exports disrupted by Sudan’s conflict, South Sudan’s economy continues to deteriorate. These economic hardships have fueled urban crime and social unrest, adding to the country’s instability.

Assessment
The security situation in South Sudan remains highly volatile, shaped by ongoing armed conflicts, political power struggles, and regional spillover effects. The clashes in Nasir and tensions in Juba underscore the precarious state of the 2018 peace accord, while widespread instability in multiple states points to a broader security collapse. The lack of progress in implementing the peace agreement, coupled with economic hardship and displacement from Sudan, suggests a high risk of further deterioration.

Conclusion
South Sudan’s security landscape remains critical, with significant incidents reported over the past week. Immediate action is necessary to address the humanitarian crisis, stabilize the peace process, and mitigate the regional impact of Sudan’s conflict. Without decisive intervention, the country risks deeper instability and chaos.