Final Confrontations for the Control of Goma

On Thursday, January 23, 2025, M23 (Mouvement du 23-Mars) openly and publicly threatened to retake Goma. In a statement released on the night of January 22, the rebellion's spokesperson issued a warning to MONUSCO and SADC forces. On January 24, 2025, M23 elements occupied the Trois Antennes hills and entered the town of Sake. M23's strategy would be to draw MONUSCO, FARDC (DRC Army), and SADC (SAMIRDC) forces towards Sake and, most likely, to launch attacks from Nyiragongo, the park (Muja village). Romanian mercenary forces and AGEMIRA (Private Military Company) instructors bombarded M23 positions on the hills around Sake with Sukhoi helicopters.

On January 23, the South Africa Minister of Defense met in Kinshasa with the DRC Deputy Minister of Defense. The SA Minister plans to visit Goma. North Kivu civil society has asked the population to remain calm at home. The border between Rwanda and the DRC in Goma was open, and some families crossed the border to seek refuge in Gisenyi, Rwanda. Visits to Goma should be limited. The navigation of small boats is prohibited between Goma and Bukavu. Goma International Airport is still open and operational. According to M23 insiders, the green light to retake the city of Goma has already been given.

The situation is very concerning. The open threat to retake Goma and the military movements around Sake show that the conflict is far from resolved. M23's strategy of drawing MONUSCO, FARDC, and SADC forces towards Sake could be an attempt to divert and weaken opposing forces. According to a senior M23 official, M23 could enter the city of Goma from surrounding villages.

The situation remains volatile and requires continuous attention for anyone planning to travel to this area. It is time for those who can leave the city for Gisenyi, given the unknown number of armed individuals, bandits assimilated to local self-defence forces, and military personnel. The city is suffocated and cordoned off, with only one safe exit to Gisenyi, Rwanda. It risks being characterized by total and uncontrollable urban insecurity.

The described situation shows a significant advance of M23 in the North Kivu and South Kivu provinces, with major strategic implications for the city of Goma. The capture of key localities and the abandonment of positions by the FARDC and their Burundian allies indicate a weakness of government forces in the face of the M23 offensive. The meeting between the M23 commander and humanitarian organizations highlights the importance of the humanitarian dimension and is seen as a test of how M23 prepares to engage with humanitarian organizations in Goma.