JNIM Intensifies Attacks on Malian Urban Centres
Al-Qaeda’s West African affiliate, Jama’a Nusrat ul-Islam wa al-Muslimin (JNIM), has escalated its campaign of violence, targeting two major towns in Mali over the past week in an apparent bid to expand territorial control.
The first attack occurred on December 31, when militants simultaneously assaulted two security checkpoints at the entrance to Douentza. However, the operation was repelled before the attackers could inflict casualties or enter the town.
A more successful assault followed on the night of January 6 in Nioro du Sahel. Dozens of militants targeted key sites, including the governor’s residence and military and gendarmerie posts. Reports suggest the attackers encountered minimal resistance, enabling them to withdraw largely unchallenged after carrying out their operation.
These attacks mark a significant escalation following a relatively quiet December. They may indicate the onset of a new phase of JNIM’s conflict, as the group hinted at during a statement in late November. Similar assaults on urban centres in Mali, as well as neighbouring Burkina Faso and Niger, are anticipated in the coming weeks and months.
Nioro du Sahel remains a likely target for further attacks. The town’s remote location and proximity to the Mauritanian border—frequently used by JNIM militants to evade Malian authorities—make it strategically significant. The recent abduction and murder of a prominent pro-government Islamic leader, coupled with the attack on state buildings, suggest a deliberate strategy to erode government influence and prepare the ground for eventual control.
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A Fragile Ceasefire in Eastern DRC
Amid ongoing violence in eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), two nearly identical statements released on April 23, 2025, announced an immediate ceasefire. One was signed in Goma by a member of the rebel group AFC/M23—someone not even officially part of the delegation—and the other was issued by the Congolese government in Kinshasa.
Ituri Under Surveillance
Rising Security Concerns The political fragmentation in eastern DRC continues to threaten the fragile stability of Ituri. The failure of the Doha process and the breakdown of the republican pact could pave the way for a new wave of unrest in the region. On April 22, 2025, Uganda’s Chief of Defence Forces (CDF), General Muhoozi Kainerugaba, met with leaders of the Lendu militia CODECO (Cooperative for the Development of the Congo) in Entebbe. Officially, the meeting was convened to address CODECO’s attack on Ugandan military positions in Ituri, a confrontation that adds to past clashes between the group and the Ugandan People’s Defence Forces (UPDF). Key Figures and Discussions The CODECO delegation, led by Dunji Kulukpa Etienne (Vice President of the Lendu community), included political and militant representatives. On the Ugandan side, top-ranking officials participated: • General Muhoozi Kainerugaba, CDF • Lieutenant General Kayanja Muhanga, Land Forces Commander • Major General Felix Busizoori, Commander of the 4th Infantry Division • Brigadier General Oscar Munanura, Deputy Assistant Chief of Intelligence and Security Earlier in the week, CODECO leaders had already engaged with Ugandan military commanders. During the Entebbe meeting, Mr. Dunji expressed gratitude for Uganda’s reception and apologized for the Fataki clashes between CODECO and the UPDF. He claimed the militia had been influenced by external forces and emphasized that the Lendu, Balega, and Bahema communities do not view Uganda as an adversary. Dunji also highlighted Ituri’s worsening humanitarian crisis, attributing it to political divisions, while praising Uganda’s contributions in healthcare, refugee assistance, and economic aid. Uganda’s Expanding Influence in Ituri General Kainerugaba reaffirmed Uganda’s historical presence in North Kivu and Ituri, citing counter-insurgency operations dating back to the early 2000s. He urged CODECO leaders to collaborate with the UPDF in pursuit of a lasting peace. As a demonstration of goodwill, Ugandan forces provided free medical care to wounded CODECO fighters. Strategic Implications: A Larger Agenda? While Uganda frames this meeting as a step toward reconciliation, analysts at African Security Analysis suggest a deeper motive. They argue that the gathering was part of a broader effort to integrate CODECO into the militant coalition led by Thomas Lubanga, potentially setting the stage for coordinated offensives in Ituri, particularly targeting Bunia. If confirmed, this would signal a significant shift in the security landscape, with Uganda deepening its influence in Ituri under the guise of conflict resolution. The region remains under scrutiny as stakeholders assess the evolving dynamics.
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