Mozambique: Eni Takes Final Investment Decision on ‘Coral North’ FLNG

Executive Summary

The Italian multinational energy company Eni has reached a final investment decision (FID) on Coral North, a second floating liquefied natural gas (FLNG) unit to be deployed in Mozambique’s Rovuma Basin. The approximately 3.5 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) facility will effectively double the country’s offshore liquefied natural gas (LNG) export capacity. Unlike onshore projects disrupted by insurgency in Cabo Delgado Province, the floating LNG design allows production to proceed independently of land-based security threats. The decision consolidates Mozambique’s role as a strategic supplier of liquefied natural gas, even as onshore megaprojects face protracted delays.

Key Developments

• FID Announced: Eni approved the Coral North FLNG project in early October 2025, following positive market conditions and financing alignment.
• Capacity: The unit will add ≈3.5 mtpa capacity, bringing Mozambique’s offshore LNG output potential to ~7 mtpa when combined with Coral South.
• Location: Offshore Rovuma Basin, designed for deepwater production, minimizing exposure to the insurgency-affected Cabo Delgado region.
• Timeline: Engineering and procurement are expected to commence immediately, with first gas targeted around 2030.
• Strategic Independence: By situating operations offshore, Coral North bypasses logistical and security vulnerabilities tied to Palma and Afungi onshore hubs.

Strategic Implications

1. Energy Security and Exports

• Mozambique secures a second long-term LNG production stream, diversifying revenue sources.
• Additional exports will strengthen Mozambique’s position as a top-10 global LNG supplier and support European and Asian buyers seeking alternatives to Russian supply.

2. Security and Risk Mitigation

• Offshore FLNG provides resilience against the Cabo Delgado insurgency, which has stalled TotalEnergies’ Mozambique LNG onshore project.
• However, maritime security in the Mozambique Channel remains essential, given piracy risks and potential offshore sabotage attempts.

3. Economic and Fiscal Impact

• Coral North is expected to significantly boost foreign exchange earnings, fiscal revenues, and investment flows.
• Project spin-offs include local supply chain contracts, though limited compared to onshore developments.

4. Investor Confidence

• The FID signals continued international oil company (IOC) confidence in Mozambique’s gas potential despite security headwinds.
• This decision may accelerate momentum for other stalled projects if security improves.

African security Analysis (ASA) Assessment

Eni’s Coral North FID represents a milestone in Mozambique’s LNG trajectory, ensuring incremental capacity growth while circumventing the insurgency bottleneck onshore.

• For Mozambique: The project locks in long-term revenue streams but requires robust fiscal governance to avoid dependency and mitigate “resource curse” dynamics.
• For Security Actors: Offshore resilience does not remove the need for continued counterinsurgency in Cabo Delgado, as insurgents may shift tactics toward symbolic or infrastructure attacks.
• For Global Markets: Coral North strengthens LNG diversification for Europe and Asia, likely securing long-term supply agreements.

The Coral North FLNG decision doubles Mozambique’s offshore LNG output, positioning the country as a reliable supplier despite persistent onshore instability. Offshore resilience provides a hedge against insurgency, but enduring regional insecurity could still weigh on investor sentiment and broader sector development.