Nigeria: Flood Alerts Across 15 States

Situation Overview

Nigeria’s Hydrological Services Agency (NIHSA) has issued urgent flood alerts across 15 states, warning of heavy rainfall, river surges, and flash floods through 28 September 2025. A total of 69 at-risk locations has been flagged, with authorities urging immediate evacuations from low-lying areas.

In Kogi State, riverine communities have already reported significant inundation, with homes destroyed, farmlands submerged, and transport disrupted. Similar localized flooding has been observed in parts of Niger, Benue, and Anambra states, raising concern about escalation if rainfall persists.

Immediate Impacts

• Human Security

– Rising risk of casualties and displacement in flood-prone settlements.

– Pressure on already fragile shelters and humanitarian support systems.

• Agriculture & Food Security

– Submersion of rice paddies, cassava fields, and maize farms in Kogi and Benue threatens the 2025 harvest.

– Loss of croplands could worsen food inflation and deepen rural poverty.

• Infrastructure & Logistics

– Roads and bridges in at-risk states face washouts, disrupting supply chains, commuter transport, and market access.

– Energy and telecom lines in inundated zones may suffer service outages.

• Public Health

– Elevated risks of cholera, malaria, and waterborne disease outbreaks in overcrowded temporary shelters.

Risk Indicators to Monitor (Next 5–7 Days)

1. Rainfall intensity and Niger/Benue River levels – Persistent rain could overwhelm embankments and worsen flooding.

2. Government response readiness – Speed of deployment of boats, relief items, and evacuation support.

3. Community compliance with evacuation orders – Many residents are reluctant to abandon farmland and assets.

4. Impact on transport hubs – Watch for closures along Lokoja–Abuja highway and other arterial routes.

Strategic Implications

• Economic & Agricultural Costs: Damage to food belts in Kogi, Benue, and Niger could intensify national food insecurity, with knock-on inflationary pressures.
• Humanitarian Stress: Displacements could spill into IDP camps already strained by insecurity-linked migration in the north.
• Governance Pressure: A weak or delayed response may inflame public discontent against federal and state authorities.
• Regional Dimension: Floodwaters could affect cross-border river systems into Niger and Cameroon, complicating regional disaster management.

Advisory

For government, humanitarian actors, and private sector stakeholders, immediate contingency planning is critical:

• Relocate vulnerable populations from flagged red zones.
• Pre-position relief and health supplies in state capitals and at-risk LGAs.
• Secure logistics chains for food, fuel, and humanitarian aid before routes become impassable.
• Map exposure of critical infrastructure (power plants, telecoms, bridges) to prioritize early reinforcement.

African Security Analysis (ASA) stands ready to provide:

• Real-time hydrological monitoring and rainfall pattern updates.
• High-resolution flood-risk mapping of critical corridors.
• Tailored advisory for logistics companies, humanitarian operators, and investors with assets in the affected regions.