Rapid Support Forces Declare a Parallel Government in Darfur as El Fasher Starves

General Context

Since April 2023 Sudan has been locked in civil war between the national army, commanded by General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) led by Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (“Hemetti”). Over time the conflict has assumed a geographic logic: the army controls the Red Sea corridor and the east from Port-Sudan, while the RSF entrenches itself in Darfur and parts of Kordofan.

Proclamation of a Break-Away Government in Nyala

On 24 July 2025 the RSF crossed a new threshold. Surrounded by allied rebel groups and pro-RSF civil figures under the banner “Sudanese Founding Alliance” (“Tassis”), Hemetti announced in Nyala, South Darfur, the formation of a parallel government.

• President: Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (“Hemetti”).
• Vice-President: Abdelaziz al-Hilu, commander of the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement–North (SPLM-N) active in the Nuba Mountains of South Kordofan.
• Transitional Prime Minister: Former civilian official Mohamed Hassan al-Ta’ayshi.

The project enjoys tacit diplomatic cover from the United Arab Emirates and open sympathy from Kenya. It stands in open defiance of the Port-Sudan administration recognised by the Sudanese Armed Forces.

Symbolism—and Its Limits

The declaration was made in Nyala, not in El Fasher, historical capital of Darfur. The omission is telling:

• El Fasher remains outside RSF control. The army’s 6th Infantry Division, reinforced by Darfuri armed movements—the “Joint Forces” and Minni Minnawi’s Sudan Liberation Army—still holds the city.
• Humanitarian cost: El Fasher has sheltered vast numbers of civilians—Zaghawa, Dar Massalit, Fur—who fled RSF/Janjaweed assaults elsewhere. They are now trapped behind a siege line the RSF has tightened for two years.

Humanitarian Situation in El Fasher

A conservative estimate places the encircled population, including the giant Zamzam displacement camp, between one and 1.5 million people.

• All land routes are cut; RSF air-defence assets supplied by Gulf partners have blocked aerial resupply.
• Food stocks are exhausted. Families survive on fodder intended for livestock.
• Absent a negotiated relief corridor, mass mortality from starvation—particularly among children—is imminent, compounding the toll from daily shelling.

Political-Military Stakes

De-facto Partition: The Nyala proclamation formalises an emerging map in which western Sudan (Darfur + Kordofan) functions independently of the riverine north and east—yet without the prestige of El Fasher, the secession is incomplete.

Quest for Recognition: No state has formally endorsed the RSF entity; external patrons measure support carefully to avoid outright rupture with Port-Sudan.

Rebel Realignment: The SPLM-N’s swing behind Hemetti reshapes insurgent alliances, unsettling the multi-ethnic balance long characteristic of the Nuba Mountains.

Prospects

• Stalemate Scenario: If the siege of El Fasher persists, a large-scale famine is probable, with spill-over humanitarian and security effects into Chad, Central African Republic and South Sudan.
• Military Escalation: Unable to claim Darfur’s historic capital, the RSF may escalate bombardment or tighten the blockade to force capitulation.
• Negotiation Under Duress: Regional actors and aid organisations may impose a limited cease-fire or humanitarian corridor, yet momentum toward territorial fracture now runs deep.

Independent Assessment by ASA Analysts

• Growing Fragmentation: The coexistence of rival governments increases the likelihood of durable Balkanisation, with a Gulf-backed western Sudan crystallising opposite an army-led east.
• Regional Shockwaves: Refugee flows and uncontrolled heavy-weapons traffic threaten to destabilise Chad, CAR and border regions of South Sudan.
• Narrow Humanitarian Window: Without a monitored air-bridge or land corridor, El Fasher appears poised for a famine echoing Sudan’s crises of the 1980s–90s.
• Legitimacy Contest: The RSF bloc will accelerate state-building gestures—civil administration, diplomatic outreach—to entrench its claim; Port-Sudan will court partners who favour Sudan’s territorial integrity.
• Decisive Variable: El Fasher’s fate is pivotal. Its fall, or conversely sustained resupply, will determine whether the RSF’s partition project matures or stalls.