RSF Capture of Al-Tina Escalates Darfur Control and Triggers Chad Border Closure

Strategic Territorial Shift Intensifies Regional Tensions and Deepens Humanitarian Collapse

Executive Summary

Sudan’s conflict has entered a new escalation phase following the Rapid Support Forces’ (RSF) announced capture of the strategic border town of Al-Tina on February 21. The development consolidates RSF territorial dominance across much of Darfur and places paramilitary forces directly along the Chad–Sudan frontier.

In response, Chad has closed its border, citing heightened security concerns amid increasing cross-border instability. The seizure of Al-Tina marks not only a tactical battlefield gain but a significant geopolitical inflection point, with implications for regional security, supply corridors, and an already catastrophic humanitarian crisis.

Operational Context: Consolidation of Western Sudan

The RSF, led by General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (“Hemedti”), continues to expand its footprint in western Sudan. After consolidating positions in multiple localities in late 2024, the group has now claimed full control of Al-Tina, a key transit hub near the Chadian border.

Video footage circulated via official RSF communication channels shows fighters celebrating in the city, signalling operational consolidation and symbolic territorial control.

Al-Tina had previously been held by Joint Forces aligned with the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF). Its fall further weakens pro-army resistance pockets in Darfur and reinforces RSF dominance across the region.

Strategically, the capture of Al-Tina enables the RSF to:

• Secure a critical border corridor
• Isolate remaining SAF-aligned units in western Sudan
• Strengthen logistical positioning
• Expand leverage along transnational supply routes

This development significantly alters the operational balance in Darfur.

Regional Security Implications: Chad Under Pressure

The proximity of RSF-controlled territory to Chad elevates regional risk.

Chad’s decision to immediately close its border reflects escalating concern in N’Djamena over:

• Cross-border infiltration
• Armed spillover
• Refugee influx pressures
• Direct confrontation risk

The frontier has already witnessed violent incidents in recent months, including a December attack that resulted in the deaths of two Chadian soldiers.

The consolidation of RSF positions along the border transforms what was previously a fluid security buffer into a hardened confrontation line.

Chad now faces a dual challenge:

1. Preventing territorial destabilization

2. Managing one of the region’s largest refugee flows

The risk of localized border militarization has increased substantially.

External Dynamics and Support Structures

The RSF’s consolidation also reinforces broader geopolitical tensions. The paramilitary group has been widely reported to receive external support, including allegations of backing from the United Arab Emirates.

While direct confirmation remains politically sensitive, the perception of external sponsorship adds complexity to the conflict’s international dimension.

The expansion of RSF territorial control may:

• Strengthen its bargaining position in future negotiations
• Deepen polarization between regional actors
• Increase proxy competition in Sudan’s western theatre

The Darfur conflict zone increasingly reflects regionalized power contestation.

Humanitarian Crisis: Escalation Amid Impunity

Beyond territorial dynamics, the RSF’s advance has intensified international alarm over documented abuses.

Multiple human rights organizations have attributed to RSF elements:

• Targeted massacres
• Systematic sexual violence
• Enforced disappearances
• Mass displacement operations

The humanitarian dimension is now critical.

According to United Nations data, Sudan is experiencing:

• The world’s largest displacement crisis
• Nearly 14 million displaced or refugee persons
• Tens of thousands of fatalities
• Collapsing public service infrastructure

Civilians fleeing Darfur continue to cross into Chad in large numbers, overwhelming already strained refugee camps.

Chad’s border closure may reduce immediate security exposure but risks trapping vulnerable populations within active conflict zones.

Strategic Assessment

The capture of Al-Tina represents more than a battlefield success. It marks:

• Near-complete RSF dominance in Darfur
• Direct adjacency to Chadian territory
• Increased leverage in supply control
• Heightened regionalization of the conflict

If current trends persist, potential trajectories include:

Scenario A: Border Stabilization Under Military Tension

Chad fortifies the frontier, limiting direct spillover but escalating militarization.

Scenario B: Cross-Border Destabilization

Militant infiltration or retaliatory engagements draw Chad more directly into the conflict.

Scenario C: Humanitarian Overrun

Continued displacement overwhelms regional capacity, increasing mortality and instability.

International Response Gap

Despite the scale of the crisis, Sudan remains relatively peripheral within global diplomatic priorities.

Limited coordinated international pressure, fragmented mediation efforts, and inconsistent enforcement of sanctions have allowed the conflict to deepen with minimal deterrence.

Absent meaningful diplomatic engagement and humanitarian scaling, the crisis risks transitioning from civil war to protracted regional instability.

Conclusion

The RSF seizure of Al-Tina significantly alters the strategic geography of Sudan’s western conflict zone. With Darfur largely under paramilitary control and Chad compelled to close its border, the conflict has entered a more dangerous regional phase.

At the same time, the humanitarian catastrophe continues to expand unchecked.

Sudan now represents one of the most acute intersections of:

• Armed territorial consolidation
• Cross-border destabilization
• External influence dynamics
• Large-scale civilian suffering

Without decisive international engagement, the conflict risks becoming structurally entrenched—transforming western Sudan into a long-term instability corridor at the heart of the Sahel–Horn of Africa interface.