Sudan: Major Powers Unveil Roadmap for Ceasefire and Civilian Transition

Introduction

Sudan’s protracted civil war has reached a potential turning point. The United States, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and the United Arab Emirates have jointly announced a comprehensive peace roadmap designed to halt the conflict between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF). This plan reflects a rare alignment of regional and international stakeholders who, until now, had often acted at cross-purposes in Sudan’s crisis.

The Roadmap in Detail

The initiative lays out three main phases:

Immediate Truce (Three Months)

• Both warring parties are expected to halt hostilities for 90 days.
• Humanitarian corridors will be opened to deliver food, medical supplies, and aid workers into Khartoum, Darfur, and other contested areas.
• Monitoring teams, supported by African Union and IGAD mechanisms, will verify compliance.

Permanent Ceasefire

• Following the truce, a binding ceasefire will be enacted, with provisions for the withdrawal of heavy weapons from urban centres.
• Security-sector guarantees are included, obliging both SAF and RSF to end parallel recruitment and reduce checkpoints restricting civilian mobility.

Political Transition (Nine Months)

• A transitional civilian government will be formed within nine months, tasked with drafting constitutional arrangements and organizing elections.
• The plan envisages power-sharing between civilian representatives, political parties, and regional stakeholders.
• International guarantors — led by the U.S. and Gulf states — will oversee financing of transitional programs, including rebuilding governance institutions and stabilizing the economy.

Why It Matters

The roadmap represents the most structured international initiative since the war broke out. If implemented, it could:

• Halt a humanitarian catastrophe that has displaced millions.
• Prevent Sudan from fragmenting into de facto spheres of influence controlled by militias and external patrons.
• Strengthen regional stability by reducing refugee flows into neighbouring Chad, South Sudan, and Egypt.

Challenges Ahead

Despite the momentum, deep challenges remain:

• SAF and RSF have repeatedly violated previous ceasefire pledges.
• Trust deficits run deep, especially in Darfur, where atrocities continue.
• Power struggles within each camp, and interference by regional spoilers, could derail implementation.

Conclusion

The roadmap marks a significant diplomatic convergence. While fragile, it signals to Sudan’s generals that international tolerance for continued war is waning. Its success will depend on sustained enforcement, financial backing, and the political will of both military leaders and civilian actors to prioritize Sudan’s survival over personal power.

African Security Analysis (ASA) offers confidential, tailored intelligence support to governments, international organizations, and private institutions navigating Sudan’s volatile environment. Our services include:

• Conflict Monitoring & Verification: Independent assessment of ceasefire compliance, militia activity, and humanitarian access.
• Network Mapping: Identification of RSF and SAF patronage systems, tribal alliances, and cross-border supply chains fuelling the war economy.
• Scenario Analysis: Forecasting risks of ceasefire collapse, factional fragmentation, or external interference from regional actors.
• Advisory for Humanitarian Corridors: Risk assessments for aid convoys, evacuation planning, and secure access to contested zones.

For stakeholders invested in Sudan’s stability, ASA provides timely, actionable intelligence to reduce uncertainty, safeguard personnel, and support evidence-based decision-making in one of Africa’s most complex conflicts.