The SADC Withdrawal: A Critical Shift in Eastern DRC

Since December 2023, the Southern African Development Community (SADC), a coalition of 16 nations, has deployed forces to eastern DRC under the SADC Mission in the DRC (SAMIDRC). Tasked with supporting Kinshasa in countering the increasing influence of the M23/AFC rebel group—widely believed to be backed by Rwanda—SADC forces have played a pivotal role. However, with tensions mounting toward a decisive confrontation, the SADC has decided to withdraw its forces, leaving a strategic vacuum with far-reaching consequences.

Key Outcomes of the Extraordinary Summit

1. Immediate termination of SAMIDRC's mandate and withdrawal of forces.

2. Integration of the Luanda and Nairobi peace mechanisms.

3. Affirmation that Angola is not the sole mediator between Kinshasa and M23/AFC.

A Strategic Void at a Critical Moment

The timing of SADC's withdrawal is especially challenging for Kinshasa. Negotiations with the M23/AFC rebels had offered a glimmer of hope for resolving the long-standing conflict in eastern DRC. However, without SADC's military presence, Kinshasa loses a critical advantage. The Congolese army, already under strain, now faces an even greater challenge as it approaches the negotiation table from a weakened position.

For M23/AFC, this withdrawal represents a strategic opportunity. The perceived vulnerability of their adversaries could embolden the rebels to escalate their demands—either through intensified military action or by taking a harder stance during talks. The group has already voiced its expectations, seeking a formal announcement from the DRC president and an official invitation from mediators outlining the terms of reference for negotiations.

Negotiations on a Precarious Edge

The upcoming negotiations face a delicate balance. In an optimistic scenario, the resulting security vacuum might push both sides to compromise under pressure. A cornered Kinshasa might concede key points, while M23/AFC, sensing victory, could aim to consolidate its gains. However, if the rebels overestimate their strength, they may issue unrealistic demands, risking the collapse of talks and a renewed escalation of conflict.

Regional Repercussions

SADC's withdrawal risks straining its relations with Kinshasa, which may view the move as abandonment during a critical period. This development adds to Kinshasa's already deteriorating ties with the East African Community (EAC), whose withdrawal it had previously demanded. Additionally, Rwanda—often accused of supporting M23/AFC—might interpret this withdrawal as an opportunity to further its regional influence, potentially destabilizing the situation further.

Other stakeholders, such as the EAC and the United Nations, now face a pivotal decision: either increase their involvement to stabilize the region or risk allowing the conflict to spiral out of control. However, in a world already burdened with numerous crises, it remains uncertain who will take on this responsibility.

Humanitarian Implications

Amid these political and military maneuvers, the humanitarian crisis in eastern DRC continues to worsen. Millions of civilians remain displaced, villages have been destroyed, and widespread poverty persists. A breakdown in negotiations could deepen this disaster, while a successful peace process, however improbable, could offer a path to recovery for the devastated population.

A Decisive Moment

The SADC's withdrawal is more than just a tactical shift—it is a seismic change in the dynamics of the conflict. This move weakens the Congolese government, emboldens M23/AFC rebels, and places peace negotiations on unstable ground. With Angola-mediated talks set to begin on March 18, 2025, the stakes are higher than ever. The coming days will determine whether the region edges closer to a fragile peace or descends into renewed violence in the absence of SADC’s support.