South Sudan: Electoral Uncertainty, Political Fragmentation and Rising Civilian-Protection Risks

Executive Assessment

South Sudan’s planned December 2026 elections are approaching without the political consensus, institutional preparation or security conditions generally required for a credible and peaceful process. The dissolution of transitional institutions, continued detention of First Vice-President Riek Machar, unresolved implementation of the 2018 Revitalized Agreement (R-ARCSS), and conflict in several states have increased the risk that the electoral period becomes a catalyst for wider confrontation rather than a managed transition.

The immediate concern is not limited to polling-day security. The greater risk lies in militarised political competition, disputes over post-election arrangements, localised violence and reduced capacity to protect civilians as UNMISS operates under significant resource and mobility constraints.

Electoral Process Lacks Broad Political Consensus

The National Independent Elections and Boundaries Commission has set parliamentary elections for 15 April 2027 and presidential elections for 15 May 2027. However, the wider transition remains contested. Opposition actors have rejected the announced electoral calendar, arguing that it was established without inclusive consultation.

President Salva Kiir’s September dissolution of the transitional government, legislature, state governments and regional assemblies further altered the political environment. The removal of the National Elections Commission chairperson and the appointment of caretaker ministers to key security, justice and finance portfolios have reinforced concerns regarding institutional independence and the balance of power during the transition.

Machar remains under house arrest while facing murder and treason charges, which he denies. His continued detention limits the prospects for inclusive dialogue and weakens confidence in the implementation of the R-ARCSS. The AU C5 Plus has called for broader engagement, a cessation of hostilities and confidence-building measures, including consideration of the release of political detainees.

Conflict Dynamics Remain Active Across Multiple States

The political crisis is unfolding alongside persistent armed and intercommunal violence. Government forces and SPLA-IO elements continue to clash in Jonglei and the Greater Upper Nile region. Intercommunal violence remains acute in Warrap and Lakes States, while local conflicts in Jonglei continue to generate displacement and protection risks.

In August, an attack on a UNMISS force-protection convoy in Jonglei killed two Ethiopian peacekeepers and injured seven others. In October, clashes between armed youth from the Pakam and Nyang communities in the Rumbek area reportedly killed between 60 and 70 people and displaced approximately 500 families.

These incidents demonstrate that insecurity is driven by overlapping political, military, communal and resource-related disputes. Electoral tensions may therefore interact with existing local grievances rather than remain confined to national-level politics.

UNMISS Faces Operational Constraints at a Critical Moment

A UN capability study transmitted in August found that UNMISS’ ability to respond to threats had been significantly affected by a 33 percent reduction in its military component under the UN liquidity contingency plan. The mission had 9,308 troops deployed in August against an authorised ceiling of 12,500, while planned military patrols declined by more than half between October 2025 and March 2026.

The study identified Upper Nile, Jonglei, Warrap, Lakes and parts of Equatoria as priority areas. It recommended a threat-based force posture, stronger reserves and quick-reaction capacity, improved mobility and enabling assets, and a protection-oriented police approach.

Operational restrictions remain a further constraint. According to UN reporting, government restrictions accounted for 84 of 86 reported status-of-forces-agreement violations during the latest reporting period. These restrictions directly affect UNMISS’ capacity to deploy rapidly, verify incidents and deter violence.

Humanitarian Conditions Deepen Political and Security Vulnerability

Conflict, displacement, food insecurity, disease and climate shocks are compounding risks to civilian protection. UN reporting projected that 7.8 million people—56 percent of the population—would face crisis-level food insecurity or worse between April and July, including approximately 73,000 people in catastrophic conditions.

More than 420,000 people were reportedly newly displaced since January. South Sudan is also hosting approximately 1.4 million people who fled the conflict in Sudan. Cholera, flooding in Unity State and drought-like conditions in Upper Nile are further undermining livelihoods, increasing competition over resources and straining local authorities and humanitarian actors.

Humanitarian access remains insecure. The reported killing of at least 39 humanitarian personnel this year illustrates the operational threat environment confronting relief organisations.

Civic Space and Accountability Remain Core Risks

Restrictions on civic space, intimidation of political opponents and pressure on journalists and civil-society actors remain central concerns ahead of the electoral period. The UN Commission on Human Rights in South Sudan has warned that elections held without inclusive dialogue and adequate safeguards could contribute to renewed conflict.

Conflict-related sexual violence also remains a serious protection concern. Civilian protection, accountability for attacks against peacekeepers and humanitarian actors, and safeguards for freedom of expression, association and assembly should remain central elements of international engagement.

Implications for International Engagement

The Security Council’s November discussions should focus on three interconnected priorities:

• Supporting an inclusive political process and discouraging unilateral actions that undermine the R-ARCSS;
• Strengthening UNMISS’ ability to protect civilians in priority risk areas, including through improved mobility, reserve capacity and freedom of movement;
• Supporting coordinated AU, IGAD and UN preventive diplomacy before electoral timelines harden further.

The proposed AU-IGAD-UN task force could provide a mechanism for coordinated mediation, monitoring and confidence-building if operationalised quickly. An informal Security Council dialogue with South Sudanese authorities could also address restrictions on UNMISS operations while reducing public confrontation over reporting.

Outlook

South Sudan’s transition is entering a period of elevated risk. A credible electoral process remains unlikely without agreement among principal political actors, progress on transitional security and constitutional arrangements, and meaningful protection of civic space.

The most likely near-term scenario is continued political deadlock accompanied by localised armed violence and worsening humanitarian needs. A more severe scenario would involve escalation between government-aligned forces and SPLA-IO elements, combined with electoral disputes and declining UNMISS operational capacity. Preventive diplomacy, protection-focused deployment and sustained humanitarian access will be essential to limiting these risks.