From Southern African Development Community Coordination to a Continental Early Warning System

A full report on August 2025 actions to integrate prevention, information, and response across the African Union system — By African Security Analysis

Introduction and purpose

This report explains how three interlinked engagements in August 2025 can move the African Union from episodic coordination toward a genuinely integrated, continent-wide system for early warning and early action. The sequence begins with the annual consultative meeting between the Peace and Security Council and the Southern African Development Community Organ on Politics, Defence and Security, continues with a system-wide briefing on early warning, and concludes with the African members of the United Nations Security Council reporting on African files and on a new manual designed to strengthen day-to-day coordination between Addis Ababa and New York.

African Security Analysis (ASA) frames a practical question throughout: how can regional operations, continental analysis, and global diplomacy be tied together so that risks are identified earlier, shared faster, and met with credible preventive measures?

Legal and institutional foundation

• Treaty basis. The August engagements rest on Article 16 of the Protocol Relating to the Establishment of the Peace and Security Council, which requires close cooperation between the African Union and Regional Economic Communities and Regional Mechanisms.
• Cooperation framework. The 2008 Memorandum of Understanding between the African Union Commission and Regional Economic Communities and Regional Mechanisms provides the operational architecture for joint planning, information exchange, and mission support.
• Annual rhythm. During the inaugural Peace and Security Council–Southern African Development Community Organ meeting on 30 August 2024 in Gaborone, the parties agreed to institutionalise annual consultations, alternating between Addis Ababa and Gaborone. The 2025 session is scheduled virtually for 25 August.

African Security Analysis (ASA) notes that these instruments create not just permission to coordinate, but a mandate to deliver shared analysis and joint responses.

Programme overview for August 2025

1. 25 August: Peace and Security Council–Southern African Development Community Organ consultative meeting (virtual).
The focus is to align mandates, update the shared picture of risks in the eastern part of the Democratic Republic of Congo, and agree on a pathway to mobilise resources for peace support operations without duplication or gaps.

2. 27 August: System-wide early warning briefing.
Contributions will come from the African Peer Review Mechanism, the Committee of Intelligence and Security Services of Africa, the African Union Mechanism for Police Cooperation, the African Union Counter-Terrorism Centre, and the Continental Early Warning System, under the chairmanship of the Department of Political Affairs, Peace and Security. The objective is to move from parallel reports to a single, fused assessment that links analysis to specific preventive tools.

3. 29 August: Briefing by African members of the United Nations Security Council and coordination with the Peace and Security Council.
Algeria, Sierra Leone, and Somalia will report on priority African files and will road-test the “Manual on the Modalities for Enhancing Coordination Between the Peace and Security Council and the African Members of the United Nations Security Council,” adopted on 24 July 2025.

African Security Analysis assesses that this sequence can convert process into measurable outcomes if decisions are tied to concrete thresholds and assigned responsibilities.

What an integrated early warning system should achieve

An integrated system is more than a dashboard of alerts. It is a disciplined chain that connects information, judgement, decision, and action. African Security Analysis recommends five design principles:

1. All-hazards coverage. Political and governance stress, communal tensions, terrorism, organised crime, cyber threats, climate and food shocks, and public-health risks must be analysed within one model rather than in separate silos.

2. Many sources, one product. Intelligence services, police cooperation mechanisms, counter-terrorism expertise, governance peer review, humanitarian and development datasets, and regional information flows must be fused into a single assessment written for decision-makers.

3. Clear thresholds. Alerts must unlock pre-agreed actions. Risk levels should be tied to concrete tools such as preventive diplomacy, targeted sanctions, cyber disruption measures, border controls, and rapid deployments.

4. Regional anchoring. Regional Economic Communities, beginning with the Southern African Development Community, should co-own collection standards, analysis calendars, and response menus for cross-border threats.

5. Transparency and protection. The system should protect sources and methods while publishing enough to build trust with parliaments, civil society, and partners.

Progress since late 2024

• Continental security outlook and misuse of digital platforms. In November 2024, the Peace and Security Council received a heads-up on continental risks and on the exploitation of online platforms by terrorist and extremist groups. The Council called for deeper information sharing, a joint approach to cyber threats, and stronger links to national authorities.
• Institutional reform. In December 2024, the Peace and Security Council urged that the Continental Early Warning System receive greater visibility and operational weight in the proposed restructuring of the Department of Political Affairs, Peace and Security.
• Governance as prevention. In April 2025, the Peace and Security Council and the African Peer Review Mechanism held a joint meeting and highlighted how governance-focused peer reviews can sharpen early warning by identifying structural drivers of conflict such as exclusion, corruption, and weak justice systems.
• Addis Ababa–New York bridge. In July 2025, the Peace and Security Council adopted a manual to strengthen coordination with the African members of the United Nations Security Council, including calendar synchronisation, shared drafting, and wider coalition-building with the Non-Aligned Movement and other partners.

African Security Analysis reads these steps as the building blocks of a fused prevention architecture that now needs to be operationalised.

A practical architecture for a fused warning system

Governance and roles.
A small steering committee chaired by the Department of Political Affairs, Peace and Security should convene quarterly with senior representatives from the African Peer Review Mechanism, the Committee of Intelligence and Security Services of Africa, the African Union Mechanism for Police Cooperation, the African Union Counter-Terrorism Centre, the Continental Early Warning System, and representatives of Regional Economic Communities. Every member state should nominate a national focal point responsible for feeding data and executing preventive actions.

African Security Analysis can support the steering committee with method design, risk triage, and independent quality assurance.

Data domains and standards.
Collection should cover seven families of indicators: political and governance signals; community security and human rights; armed-group activity; transnational organised crime; cyber and information-space harms; economic, climate, and food-security stress; and public-health readiness. Common taxonomies and metadata standards must be agreed so that regional feeds are interoperable.

African Security Analysis recommends a shared catalogue of indicators, update frequencies, and minimum evidence standards.

Analytical workflow.
Collection windows culminate monthly in a continent-wide risk outlook and, when needed, in regional watch notes. Where indicators cross set thresholds—such as sharp displacement spikes, verified cross-border arms flows, or coordinated online incitement—the system issues rapid alerts, each tied to a small menu of preventive tools and responsible actors.

African Security Analysis can help define thresholds, draft alert templates, and design decision logs that track follow-through.

Action menus and accountability.
Each alert should name the lead entity, the support entity, the time frame for action, and the public marker against which progress can be judged. Examples include dispatch of a preventive diplomacy mission; activation of cross-border police cooperation; disruption of online recruitment networks; reinforcement of border posts; or pre-positioning of humanitarian supplies.

African Security Analysis advises pairing each action with a short list of measurable outputs and a time-bound review.

Information protection and ethics.
A graduated confidentiality regime should separate what can be shared publicly from what requires restricted handling. Ethics guidance should cover consent, community protection, and the handling of sensitive personal data.

African Security Analysis can assist with privacy-by-design reviews and crisis communication protocols.

Southern African Development Community–African Union coordination on the eastern part of the Democratic Republic of the Congo

The 25 August consultation is the place to demonstrate joint planning in a theatre where regional and continental responsibilities meet.

• Shared threat picture. Agree on a single, regularly updated assessment that covers armed-group movements, foreign support networks, illicit gold and mineral financing, community protection needs, and cross-border dynamics.
• Mandate compatibility. Clarify rules of engagement, human-rights safeguards, and reporting chains so that regional deployments and any continental support reinforce, rather than complicate, one another.
• Resource mobilisation. Present a unified budget and logistics plan to partners, with transparent procurement and auditable pipelines.
• Local legitimacy. Build community-level feedback into the warning system so that preventive actions reflect realities on the ground.

African Security Analysis can facilitate joint planning workshops, map decision and veto points, and provide independent red-teaming of proposed concepts of operations.

Early warning to early action: recurring obstacles and how to overcome them

• Denial and delay. Some member states hesitate to acknowledge warnings that carry political costs. A structured peer-dialogue that pairs governance findings with security evidence can reduce defensiveness and open space for quiet course corrections. Africa Security Analysis can moderate these dialogues and provide confidential options papers.
• Capacity gaps. Thin public-private partnership units, slow permitting, and weak crisis-management cells slow action once risks are flagged. A dedicated project-management office within the Department of Political Affairs, Peace and Security—mirrored in capitals—can shorten the distance between diagnosis and response. Africa Security Analysis can design the operating model and performance metrics for such offices.
• Interoperability. Divergent formats and calendars among regional and continental teams create gaps. A single calendar for collection, analysis, and decision, shared in advance with Regional Economic Communities, will align expectations and outputs. Africa Security Analysis can maintain the calendar and audit compliance.
• Digital harm. Terrorist and extremist actors use online platforms for radicalisation, recruitment, training, and funding. A joint cyber task force, co-owned by the African Union Counter-Terrorism Centre, the Committee of Intelligence and Security Services of Africa, the African Union Mechanism for Police Cooperation, and national computer emergency response teams, should define minimum incident reporting and cross-border disruption playbooks. Africa Security Analysis can draft playbooks and run tabletop exercises.
• Transnational threats. Human trafficking, cybercrime, and illicit finance cross borders by design. Formal liaison teams between the Continental Early Warning System and Regional Economic Communities should co-sign assessments and co-own operational responses to these threats. Africa Security Analysis can provide cross-border threat mapping and route-risk analysis.

Alignment with the United Nations Security Council through African leadership

The 29 August briefing by Algeria, Sierra Leone, and Somalia is the hinge that turns analysis into multilateral influence.

• Sequenced decision-making. The Peace and Security Council should set time-bound positions on priority files. The African members of the United Nations Security Council then carry those positions into negotiations, propose language, and report back on outcomes and gaps.
• Drafting discipline. Standing drafting teams should ensure that African language appears first in penholder texts on African files.
• Coalition building. The new coordination manual encourages systematic outreach to the Non-Aligned Movement and other partners so that African positions are tabled with wider support from the outset.

African Security Analysis can help pre-brief delegations, align drafting across Addis Ababa and New York, and track whether United Nations Security Council outcomes reflect the positions set by the Peace and Security Council.

Responsibilities and metrics

• Department of Political Affairs, Peace and Security: chairs the steering committee, owns the calendar, and ensures that every alert names a lead, a deadline, and a public marker.
• Continental Early Warning System: produces the fused monthly outlook and rapid alerts and maintains the standards catalogue.
• African Peer Review Mechanism, Committee of Intelligence and Security Services of Africa, African Union Mechanism for Police Cooperation, African Union Counter-Terrorism Centre: provide domain-specific inputs and co-lead the cyber task force.
• Regional Economic Communities: co-sign regional watch notes and co-own preventive measures for cross-border threats.
• Member states: designate focal points, implement national-level preventive actions, and participate in peer dialogues when indicators cross thresholds.

Success should be measured by fewer unaddressed alerts, shorter time from warning to action, better alignment between regional operations and continental mandates, and a higher share of United Nations Security Council texts that reflect positions set by the Peace and Security Council.

African Security Analysis can design the scorecard, collect evidence, and publish quarterly progress notes.

Conclusion

August 2025 offers a real chance to move from coordination on paper to prevention that matters. If the Peace and Security Council and the Southern African Development Community Organ agree on a common operating picture for the eastern part of the Democratic Republic of the Congo, if the early warning community delivers one fused assessment tied to concrete tools, and if the African members of the United Nations Security Council carry continental positions into New York with discipline and allies, the system will begin to close the gap between analysis and action.

African Security Analysis (ASA) stands ready to support governments, regional bodies, and partners across this agenda—from method design and joint planning to alert-to-action choreography, confidential facilitation, and independent monitoring—so that early warning consistently becomes early, meaningful action.