Mapping the Nerve Centres of Crime and Conflict in West Africa (2025 Update)

(Excerpted from the GI-TOC “Illicit Economies and Instability 2025” report)

1. Executive Summary

The Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime’s 2025 update offers deeper insight into how instability spreads across West and Central Africa. Building on findings from 2022, this edition highlights 350 areas where illegal activities fuel ongoing conflicts. The investigation reveals that trafficking, informal trade, and underground logistics are now entrenched in regions lacking strong governance—where economic survival is often manipulated by armed factions.

Illicit economies have shifted from temporary coping mechanisms to core structures underpinning violence. In countries such as Nigeria, Mali, Niger, Burkina Faso, and coastal transition zones, crime, armed groups, and political interests intersect to create new forms of authority that shape regional stability.

2. Background and Context

The original mapping in 2022 showed that instability in West Africa was driven more by the commercialization of insecurity than by ideology. The revised 2025 research expands to border areas of Chad, Cameroon, the Congo Basin, and the Gulf of Guinea. Using satellite data, community fieldwork, and interviews with both security agents and traders, the study finds that trafficking networks are now highly interconnected, stretching between remote deserts and busy ports.

Key factors like climate challenges, population growth, and weakened state presence are speeding up the shift from basic subsistence to criminal enterprise. With many locals excluded from official governance, participation in illicit trade has become necessary for survival. At the same time, armed groups exploit these markets for resources and recruitment.

3. Key Developments and Findings

3.1 Scale and Distribution

• 350 illicit hubs found in 18 nations, up from 320 in 2022.
• 70 hubs marked as high impact, where illegal trade directly feeds violence.
• Clusters appear along four main corridors: the central Sahel, Lake Chad Basin, Gulf of Guinea coast, and trans-Saharan routes.

3.2 Market Typology Five main categories of crime drive instability:

• Arms trafficking: the core enabler.
• Cattle theft & agro banditry: fuelling rural disputes.
• Kidnapping for ransom: major source of funds for non-state actors.
• Extortion & racketeering: common at roadblocks and markets.
• Illegal gold market: highest value, connecting miners to global buyers.

3.3 Shifting Geography Illegal activity is moving south from the Sahel into coastal states, with northern Ghana, Togo, and Benin becoming transition zones for smuggling routes.

3.4 Institutional Erosion Links between illegal trade and government authorities continue to grow. In some locales like Gao, Zamfara, and Diffa, criminal taxation replaces formal state taxes. Officials may collaborate informally with armed groups, turning local governance into a profit-driven enterprise.

4. Strategic Implications

4.1 From Conflict Economies to Criminal Governance The lines between fighters and businesspeople are blurring, with leaders, officials, and entrepreneurs forming networks that perpetuate conflict. Anti-insurgency measures alone fall short, as they don’t address the underlying financial motives driving violence.

4.2 Regional Security Architecture Under Strain Initiatives from ECOWAS and the African Union encounter obstacles; systems like the Yaoundé maritime framework and G5 Sahel show both achievements and gaps—fragmentation and lack of funding limit their effectiveness.

4.3 Economic and Social Consequences These illicit centres drain money from governments, skew markets, and deter legal investment. Losses from gold smuggling in 2024 topped USD 3 billion, threatening reforms and increasing reliance on international aid.

5. African Security Analysis (ASA) Recommendations

The mapping shows illegal economies now function as the operating system of conflict across West Africa. Such criminal hubs act as new units of governance. Until economic disruption is included in security plans, stabilization efforts will remain superficial.

Recommendations:

• Targeted interventions: Concentrate aid and security efforts in the top 10 high-impact areas (such as Zamfara, Gao, Tillabéri, and Lake Chad basin).
• Economic substitution: Invest in community-level projects to reduce dependence on trafficking.
• Data monitoring: Use ASA’s Risk Matrix to track how conflicts relate to market trends and supply chain issues.
• Integrated security centres: Create joint task forces that blend finance, customs, and military intelligence for rapid action.
• Governance reform: Introduce anti-corruption measures in local administrations tied to criminal hubs.

ASA Commitment: Through its Illicit Economy Stability Initiative (IESI), ASA pledges support by providing:

• Predictive maps of emerging trafficking routes.
• Policy recommendations for donor agencies.
• Advisory services for private-sector risk management.
• Field training in economic intelligence for security teams.