Security Council Forecast – Sudan (Summary 15 April 2025)
The UN Security Council met behind closed doors to discuss the worsening crisis in Sudan, marking two years since the conflict began between the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF). The meeting was requested by Denmark, Slovenia, and the UK.
Key Issues Discussed:
- Escalating Violence in El Fasher: RSF attacks have intensified, especially on El Fasher and nearby displacement camps (Zamzam and Abu Shouk), resulting in over 300 civilian deaths, including 10 aid workers.
- Humanitarian Crisis: Famine is spreading, with over 700,000 displaced people at risk. Humanitarian access remains severely limited.
- International Condemnation: Countries including the UK, US, Egypt, and Gulf states have condemned the RSF’s actions and called for a ceasefire.
- Security Council Resolution 2736: Members emphasized the need to enforce this resolution, which calls for ending the RSF siege on El Fasher and ensuring civilian protection.
- Peace and Political Dialogue: Efforts toward mediation have stalled. Sudan’s government proposed a roadmap for a civilian-led government, but the RSF’s plan for a rival authority raised alarms.
- Diplomatic Developments: Envoys reported on efforts to revive talks based on the Jeddah Declaration. Regional leaders and international actors, including the US and Saudi Arabia, continue to push for peace.
- Global Support: A parallel conference in London, led by the UK, France, Germany, and the EU, aims to raise humanitarian aid and promote a political solution.
The Council is now negotiating a UK-led press statement condemning the latest RSF attacks.
Discover More
Ukraine in Mali External Military Assistance and Jihadist Risk
ASA assesses that Ukrainian training and operational assistance to northern Malian separatists is probable on the available reporting. The central strategic risk is that support intended to impose costs on Russian forces strengthens an armed partnership whose battlefield gains may also benefit JNIM, an al-Qaeda affiliate. Direct Ukrainian assistance to JNIM has not been established.
Russia and Togo – An Atlantic Gateway to the Sahel
ASA assesses that the proposed Russia–Togo transport corridor is likely to develop into a dual-purpose logistics route, supporting commercial trade while creating a more durable supply architecture for Russian security engagement in the central Sahel.
REQUEST FOR INTEREST
How can we help you de-risk Africa?
Please enter your contact information and your requirements and needs for us to come back to you with a relevant proposal.
