South Sudan: Escalating Instability and UN Sanctions Renewal – May 2025

This analysis has been produced by Africa Security Analysis based on information from the May 2025 Monthly Forecast by the Security Council Report.

Anticipated Council Action
In May, the UN Security Council is expected to vote on a draft resolution to extend the sanctions regime on South Sudan, set to expire on 31 May, and to renew the mandate of the Panel of Experts assisting the 2206 South Sudan Sanctions Committee, whose current mandate expires on 1 July. On 30 April, the Council unanimously adopted Resolution 2778, extending the mandate of the UN Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS) until 9 May to allow additional time for deliberation.

Deteriorating Security and Political Climate
South Sudan's fragile peace process has come under severe threat in recent months due to intensifying political and military tensions. In early March, violent clashes erupted in Nasir (Upper Nile state), which was subsequently seized by the White Army, an armed youth group from the Nuer community. In response, the South Sudan People’s Defence Forces (SSPDF) reportedly launched airstrikes and attacked opposition bases near Juba. According to Human Rights Watch, incendiary weapons were used in some attacks, resulting in at least 58 civilian deaths.

Fighting has also escalated in other states, including Western Bahr el-Ghazal, Unity, Western Equatoria, and Jonglei. On 20 April, the SSPDF claimed to have retaken Nasir from the White Army after intense clashes.

On 17 March, the government acknowledged the presence of Ugandan troops in South Sudan under a bilateral agreement for training and support. The Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-in-Opposition (SPLM-IO) condemned the deployment, accusing Uganda of violating the UN arms embargo and participating in combat operations—allegations Uganda has denied.

Targeting of Opposition Leaders
Amid rising tensions, the government arrested several SPLM-IO officials and placed opposition leader Riek Machar under house arrest on 26 March, accusing him of inciting rebellion. This prompted a political crisis within the SPLM-IO, leading Deputy Chairman Oyet Nathaniel and other senior officials to flee or go into hiding. On 7 April, Oyet suspended four Political Bureau members, including Minister for Peacebuilding Stephen Par Koul, accusing them of attempting to oust Machar. Koul disputed the legitimacy of the move and was later appointed interim chair by a faction of SPLM-IO members in Juba. The move raised alarms over attempts to circumvent Machar’s role as First Vice President under the 2018 Revitalized Agreement (R-ARCSS), jeopardising the peace framework.

Meanwhile, a wave of military defections from the opposition to government forces further threatens the security sector reform process.

UNMISS Briefing and Security Council Concerns
At a 16 April Council briefing, UN Special Representative Nicholas Haysom warned that South Sudan risked descending from localized violence into broader conflict involving peace agreement signatories and external actors. Haysom emphasized UNMISS’ efforts to protect civilians and support the implementation of the revitalized agreement, despite operational constraints, including restricted access.

Sanctions and Benchmark Assessments
On 14 March, the Panel of Experts submitted its final report to the 2206 Sanctions Committee. The Secretary-General’s 15 April assessment noted modest progress on two of five benchmarks under Resolution 2577—specifically the Strategic Defence and Security Review and the formation of a unified command structure. However, overall progress remains slow and hindered by continued tensions between the SPLM and SPLM-IO.

No progress has been reported on the remaining benchmarks, including the disarmament, demobilization and reintegration (DDR) process, arms and ammunition management, and conflict-related sexual violence accountability. The Secretary-General expressed concern over the lack of political will and funding, warning that these gaps undermine long-term peace prospects.

Human Rights and Gender Perspectives
The UN Commission on Human Rights in South Sudan, in a 27 March statement, warned that the deteriorating situation could destabilize the broader region unless parties recommit to the revitalized agreement. The Commission urged increased regional and international engagement to press for a political resolution.

During the Council’s 16 April session, Jackline Nasiwa, Executive Director of the Center for Inclusive Governance, Peace and Justice, stressed the dire impact of the conflict on women and girls. She called for an immediate cessation of hostilities and urged Council members to preserve and fully renew UNMISS’ mandate, with gender inclusion prioritized throughout its implementation.

Key Issues and Strategic Options for the Council
The central issue before the Council is whether to renew the sanctions regime and the Panel of Experts’ mandate for another year, maintaining pressure on parties to meet peace benchmarks. Options include reaffirming the existing measures, adding new listings of violators, or engaging in consultations with the African Union and regional stakeholders.

The Council may also consider a press statement addressing the rapidly evolving crisis or undertake a visiting mission to South Sudan—the first since 2019—to engage directly with the parties.

Council Dynamics
Sanctions remain divisive within the Council. During the last renewal in May 2024 (Resolution 2731), six members abstained: Algeria, China, Guyana, Russia, Sierra Leone, and then-member Mozambique. While Western members—including the US, UK, and France—support the sanctions as essential for curbing violence and pressuring parties to comply, others, particularly China and Russia, argue that sanctions obstruct state-building efforts. African Council members have voiced similar reservations.

The US, as penholder, reportedly circulated a draft resolution in April. While it gained support from some Western members, China, Russia, and others preferred a softer approach, such as a press statement. At the 16 April meeting, Russia argued that the situation remained under government control and called for support rather than pressure.

As the situation on the ground continues to unravel, Council members must weigh urgent humanitarian, security, and political concerns in deciding the future of the sanction’s regime and the broader peace process in South Sudan.