Sudan Conflict Escalation Brief

By African Security Analysis (ASA)

UK Sanctions Both SAF and RSF as War Enters a More Dangerous Phase

El Obeid Emerges as the Next Strategic Flashpoint

Executive Assessment

The United Kingdom has imposed fresh sanctions on senior figures from both the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), marking one of the clearest external acknowledgments yet that Sudan’s war is spiralling beyond conventional containment.

ASA assesses that while symbolically significant, these sanctions are unlikely to materially alter battlefield dynamics. The conflict is now being driven by territorial momentum, supply lines, and urban siege strategy — not reputational cost.

The immediate strategic concern is El Obeid, the capital of North Kordofan. Intensifying RSF drone strikes suggest preparation for a major offensive. If El Obeid falls, the war could enter a new, bloodier phase with direct implications for Khartoum and national fragmentation.

What Happened

The UK announced sanctions targeting:

• Senior officials from both SAF and RSF,
• Individuals involved in weapons procurement,
• Networks recruiting foreign fighters and mercenaries.

The announcement followed the UK Foreign Secretary’s visit to the Chad-Sudan border, underscoring London’s concern over regional spillover.

In parallel:

• The UN High Commissioner for Human Rights warned of worsening atrocities and called for expanding the Darfur arms embargo to all of Sudan.
• Saudi Arabia condemned RSF attacks in Kordofan and criticized foreign interference.
• Reports indicate the RSF, in coordination with SPLM-N elements, is attempting to open a new operational front in Blue Nile state.

Battlefield Reality: Momentum Over Diplomacy

ASA assesses that sanctions at this stage serve primarily as political positioning. Neither SAF nor RSF appears strategically constrained by external measures.

Key realities:

• The RSF continues to rely on mobility, drone strikes, and supply routes through western corridors.
• SAF retains air power superiority but struggles to hold and secure peripheral urban centres.
• Civilian areas are increasingly embedded within contested zones.

The war is transitioning from dispersed fighting to strategic city battles.

El Obeid: The Turning Point

El Obeid’s significance cannot be overstated.

It sits at the crossroads between:

• Darfur,
• Kordofan,
• and central Sudan.

If RSF forces capture El Obeid:

• They consolidate western Sudan.
• They secure deeper supply continuity.
• They move within operational proximity to Khartoum.

Analysts warn that El Obeid risks becoming “the next El Fasher” — a prolonged siege with catastrophic humanitarian impact.

ASA assesses that El Obeid is now the most critical military objective in Sudan.

Humanitarian Collapse Accelerates

Sudan’s humanitarian metrics are deteriorating rapidly:

• Estimated 40,000 dead.
• Approximately 14 million displaced.
• Expanding famine conditions in Darfur and Kordofan.
• Systematic reports of sexual violence and civilian targeting.

The UK’s £20 million funding for survivors of sexual violence highlights the scale of atrocity — but remains marginal relative to the crisis magnitude.

ASA warns that famine and displacement are no longer secondary consequences; they are shaping conflict sustainability and recruitment dynamics.

Regional Dynamics

Sudan’s war increasingly intersects with regional interests:

• Chad faces cross-border displacement pressure.
• Saudi Arabia seeks to limit instability in Red Sea corridors.
• External actors continue to influence supply channels.

Any significant shift in Khartoum or Kordofan will reverberate across:

• Sahel security,
• Red Sea trade,
• Nile Basin geopolitics.

What Next? (30–60 Day Outlook)

Scenario 1 — El Obeid Siege Intensifies (High Probability)

Drone strikes and ground encirclement expand. Humanitarian conditions deteriorate. International pressure rises but remains fragmented.

Scenario 2 — RSF Breakthrough (Moderate Probability, High Impact)

Capture of El Obeid alters strategic balance and destabilizes central Sudan. SAF redeployments weaken other fronts.

Scenario 3 — Stalemate with Urban Fragmentation (Likely Baseline)

Neither side achieves decisive victory, but cities become increasingly divided, entrenched, and ungovernable.

ASA Bottom Line

The UK’s sanctions reflect moral urgency but do not change the structural trajectory of Sudan’s war.

The conflict has entered a phase defined by:

• Strategic urban battles,
• Drone warfare expansion,
• Humanitarian system collapse.

The decisive variable in the coming weeks is El Obeid.

If it falls, Sudan may face its bloodiest chapter yet — and Khartoum could once again move from symbolic capital to immediate battlefield objective.

Sudan is no longer in crisis management mode.

It is in structural state fracture mode.