DRC Shifts Cobalt Policy: Export Quotas Replace Ban (Effective 16 October 2025)

Policy Reset

The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) has announced a major recalibration of its cobalt export regime. Effective 16 October 2025, the government will lift its blanket export ban and replace it with a quota-based system designed to:

• Manage supply levels to international markets.
• Stabilize and potentially support global cobalt prices.
• Secure guaranteed volumes for domestic processing and national strategic projects.

This shift acknowledges the economic pressure of a full ban while reasserting Kinshasa’s intent to shape the global cobalt trade on its terms.

Strategic Rationale

As the world’s top cobalt producer—accounting for more than 70% of global supply—the DRC remains indispensable to electric vehicle (EV) batteries, renewable energy storage, and digital infrastructure manufacturing. By moving from a blunt prohibition to quotas, Kinshasa aims to:

• Balance market impact: prevent global shortages that could trigger volatility.
• Extract leverage: secure better pricing power and downstream partnerships.
• Protect domestic industrialization: ensure feedstock availability for national refineries and battery ventures.

Market Impact

• Global Supply Chains: Quotas will likely tighten immediate supply to international buyers, increasing competition among manufacturers in China, Europe, and the U.S.
• Equities and Pricing: Mining companies operating in the DRC (both multinationals and Chinese SOEs) face heightened uncertainty, with equities likely to fluctuate until the quota allocations are published.
• EV Sector Exposure: Automakers dependent on cobalt-heavy chemistries may accelerate diversification into alternative chemistries (LFP, manganese-rich), though most remain tied to Congolese supply for the foreseeable future.

Domestic Context

The quota system is also a political tool. It allows the government to:

• Reward loyal operators with higher allocations.
• Pressure non-compliant or foreign actors into aligning with Congolese industrial policy.
• Channel rents and taxation more effectively, particularly as fiscal needs rise ahead of 2026.

However, risks include corruption in quota distribution and smuggling across porous borders, especially through Rwanda and Zambia.

Geopolitical Dimension

• For the U.S. and EU: The quota regime complicates supply security strategies, reinforcing the urgency of direct partnerships with Kinshasa.
• For China: Already dominant in cobalt refining, Beijing is well-placed to leverage its entrenched mining assets to secure favourable quota allocations.
• For Regional Neighbours: The new regime may amplify smuggling incentives, destabilizing trade corridors in Central and Southern Africa.

Risk Outlook (Next 6–12 Months)

1. Allocation Disputes: Companies left with smaller quotas may lobby foreign capitals or pursue illicit channels.

2. Price Spikes: Short-term upward pressure on cobalt prices is expected, with volatility depending on enforcement.

3. Industrial Bottlenecks: Domestic projects may face delays if quotas fail to prioritize functioning, transparent allocation systems.

4. Investor Uncertainty: Unclear implementation details could delay financing decisions for both miners and downstream users.

ASA Advisory Insight

This policy shift is not merely a trade adjustment but a strategic lever in the global energy transition. The DRC is signalling that it intends to act as a rule-setter, not just a resource supplier.

African Security Analysis (ASA) advises stakeholders to:

• Monitor quota allocations and the actors favoured by Kinshasa.
• Map smuggling risk corridors that could undercut formal market stability.
• Integrate geopolitical risk into supply chain planning, especially as U.S.–China competition sharpens over EV minerals.

The DRC’s move from an export ban to a quota regime recalibrates the cobalt market but introduces new uncertainties. Companies and governments alike must anticipate quota politics, regional leakages, and volatile pricing. ASA remains available to deliver confidential, decision-grade analysis on supply security, quota allocation dynamics, and risk mitigation across the cobalt value chain.