Escalating Conflict in Tigray

TPLF Faction Seizes Control

A splinter faction of the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) has seized control of two major towns in Ethiopia's Tigray region, raising concerns about the fragile peace established by the Pretoria Agreement. The interim government in Tigray has appealed to the federal government for assistance.

Despite the peace deal, underlying tensions remain unresolved, and efforts towards reconstruction and transitional justice have stalled. The conflict initially stemmed from Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's transformation of Ethiopia's political landscape from ethnic federalism to a more centralized structure. The war, which lasted two years, resulted in over 600,000 deaths and displaced millions.

TPLF Faction Seizes Mekelle FM 104.4 and Mayor’s Office

A TPLF faction has taken control of Mekelle FM 104.4 and the city’s mayor’s office, escalating tensions between the interim administration and TPLF-aligned military commanders. Residents in Mekelle, Adigrat, and Adigudem report an atmosphere of fear and uncertainty, with many withdrawing money and buying essential goods.

In Adigudem, six local leaders were detained and taken to unknown locations on March 12, with similar concerns raised in Adigrat, where long lines formed at banks. Many youths feel they have "nowhere to turn."

No Formal Request for Federal Intervention - Getachew Reda

Getachew Reda, president of Tigray’s Interim Administration, stated that no formal request has been made for federal intervention. However, he emphasized the federal government’s responsibility to protect the administration established with its participation. He attributed the crisis to an “illegitimate faction” within the TPLF, acting with certain military leaders, and clarified that addressing the situation does not mean deploying the military or initiating war.

Background and Current Tensions

Between November 2020 and November 2022, Tigray was a conflict zone between federal forces, local militias, the Eritrean army, and Tigrayan rebels. The fighting left at least 600,000 people dead before a peace agreement was signed in Pretoria, South Africa. The agreement established an interim administration to rule Tigray until elections are held.

However, delays in implementing the agreement have caused sharp divisions within the TPLF. Getachew Reda, appointed by Prime Minister Ahmed Abiy, is in a power struggle with Debretsion Gebremichael. Recently, Getachew suspended three generals of the Tigray Defence Forces, accusing the rival faction of trying to take over Tigray.

There is growing fear that Eritrea may take advantage of the situation to launch an invasion. Kjetil Tronvoll, an Oslo University professor specializing in the region, noted that dissatisfaction with the 2022 peace agreement, Abiy's ambitions for a port on the Red Sea, and geopolitical interests from the Middle East have all contributed to the deteriorating tensions.