Intensifying Conflict in Eastern DRC: M23 Rebels Advance

The Rwanda-backed M23 rebels intensified their offensive in early January 2025, advancing toward the strategic urban center of Masisi despite an official ceasefire. The Congolese military (FARDC) and its allied Wazalendo militias failed to halt the advance, resulting in M23 seizing control of Masisi and nearby settlements by January 4.

Located approximately 80 kilometers northwest of Goma—a provincial capital housing over a million residents—Masisi’s capture marks a major victory for the rebels. However, despite their historic capture of Goma in 2012, current indications suggest that the city is not a priority for M23 at this time.

Instead, local reports indicate that M23 is moving westward toward Walikale territory, an area targeted by the group in late 2024. Heavy clashes have also been reported near Bweremana, a strategic area often referred to as the gateway to South Kivu.

South Kivu itself has witnessed intensified violence, with a coalition of FARDC, Makanika forces, and Red Tabara fighters engaging in a fierce two-day battle around Minembwe, leaving over 30 people dead. Meanwhile, fresh clashes along key routes to South Kivu suggest the violence may escalate further and expand geographically.

In response, FARDC launched a counteroffensive, regaining control of settlements around Sake, Masisi, and Bweremana. However, the sustainability of this momentum remains uncertain.

M23’s recent movements indicate a renewed focus on Sake, a town it has besieged for months. Losing control of Sake under mounting internal and external pressure could have profound consequences for Congolese President Félix Tshisekedi, potentially shaping the future trajectory of the conflict.