Invest Africa 2025: Italy’s Economic Offensive in the Maghreb – Tunisia as a Strategic Gateway

Executive Summary

The first edition of Invest Africa 2025, held in Tunis from 25 to 27 September 2025, marks a turning point in Italy’s African strategy. Bringing together over 30 Italian companies and facilitating more than 250 bilateral meetings, the event showcased Italy’s intent to establish Tunisia as the primary gateway to African markets.

Backed by the Mattei Plan of the Meloni government, this initiative reflects Rome’s broader geostrategic ambition: repositioning itself as a major Mediterranean-African actor amid intensifying competition with France and China. Italy is leveraging its energy partnerships, manufacturing know-how, and agricultural expertise to secure influence across North Africa and beyond.

Strategic Context

Italy’s Geostrategic Pivot

• Italy faces the dual challenge of energy diversification post-Ukraine and redefining its role in Africa.
• The Maghreb, due to proximity and trade ties, is positioned as Rome’s launchpad for continental penetration.
• Tunisia offers immediate access to African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) markets, reinforced by its issuance of over 350 certificates of origin that allow tariff advantages, soon to be duty-free by 2026.

Tunisia: The Strategic Bridgehead

• Geographic advantage at the crossroads of Mediterranean Europe and Sub-Saharan Africa.
• Strong historic and cultural ties with Italy.
• Endorsed by Ambassador Alessandro Prunas: “Tunisia, our strategic partner, must also be viewed as a gateway to the entire African continent.”

Economic Dynamics

Bilateral Investment Growth

• Italy ranks as Tunisia’s second-largest investor, contributing 159.4 million TND (EUR 47 million) in H1 2025 (10% of FDI outside energy).
• Tunisia’s overall FDI rose by 20.8% year-on-year, reaching 1.65 billion TND (EUR 492.7 million) in 2025.
• Key growth sectors: manufacturing, energy, and automotive supply chains.

Regional Sectoral Offensive

1. Automotive & Industry

• Expansion in Algeria: partnerships with Volkswagen, Mercedes, Lamborghini, Audi, Stellantis.
• Algeria emerging as a component hub for European carmakers.

2. Agriculture & Food Security

• Italian agribusiness (e.g., Bonifici Ferrari – BF) expanding from Timimoun (36,000 ha of durum wheat/legumes) into livestock, dairy, and animal feed.
• Aligned with Algeria’s ambition to build a sustainable, semi-autonomous agricultural sector.

3. Energy Security

• ENI-Sonatrach $1.35bn gas contract consolidates Algeria as Italy’s top gas supplier.
• Energy security acts as a lever for Italian entry into other economic sectors.

The Mattei Plan: A Co-Development Model

• Named after Enrico Mattei, founder of ENI and pioneer of Euro-African energy diplomacy.
• Emphasizes investment, technology transfer, and local value creation, contrasting with traditional aid-driven models.
• Core principle: “shared development, shared benefit” → appealing to African governments wary of dependency dynamics.

Regional Competition and Geopolitical Stakes

• France: Losing ground as its historical influence erodes.
• China: Entrenched via Belt and Road projects, maintaining financial clout.
• Italy: Positions itself as a middle-power alternative, pragmatic, business-driven, culturally proximate.

The 250 B2B meetings in Tunis exemplify Italy’s “matchmaking” diplomacy, creating direct synergies between Italian and Tunisian firms while projecting influence deeper into Africa.

Outlook: Beyond Tunisia

• Following Tunis, organizers (Delta Centre) plan extensions to Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Senegal, Ivory Coast, Cameroon, and Kenya.
• Italy seeks to build a network of continental footholds, with Tunisia as the pilot laboratory.

African Security Analysis (ASA) Assessment

• Opportunity: Italy’s model of co-development and proximity diplomacy resonates with North African states seeking alternatives to France and China.
• Risk: Over-concentration in Tunisia could be vulnerable to domestic instability, while reliance on Algeria for gas creates asymmetric exposure.
• Outlook: Italy is emerging as a decisive economic challenger in the Maghreb, with Tunisia as the spearhead and Algeria as the anchor.

Conclusion

Invest Africa 2025 has institutionalized Italy’s Maghreb-first strategy. With Tunisia as the entry gate and Algeria as the energy-industrial partner, Rome is building the infrastructure for a long-term continental presence.

ASA assesses that Italy’s offensive will:

1. Reshape Mediterranean-African economic alignments, weakening France’s traditional dominance.

2. Provide African states with an alternative European partner emphasizing co-development.

3. Intensify geo-economic competition in North Africa, with ripple effects across West and East Africa.