Libya: Breaking the Deadlock—UNSMIL Mandate, Elections Roadmap, and Security Risks

Prepared by African Security Analysis (ASA) based on UN Security Council briefings

Executive Summary

• Council in October: 60-day Libya briefing by SRSG Hanna Serwaa Tetteh; renewal of UNSMIL mandate (expires 31 Oct).
• Politics: National roadmap tabled; rivalry between GNU (Tripoli) and GNS/HoR (East, backed by LNA) persists; municipal elections progressed in parts of the West despite attempted disruption and suspensions elsewhere.
• Security & Rights: Fragile ceasefire; isolated spikes of violence and intimidation against electoral infrastructure; UN experts flagged abuses tied to protests and civic activity.
• Decisions: Council may update UNSMIL tasks to track the roadmap’s milestones, lengthen reporting to 120 days, and hold IID/closed consultations on the Strategic Review.

Expected Council Action

In October, the Council will:

1. Receive the 60-day briefing on Libya from SRSG Tetteh (UNSMIL), covering political, security, and humanitarian developments.

2. Renew UNSMIL’s mandate beyond 31 October, with possible scope adjustments linked to the electoral roadmap and institutional unification.

Political Landscape and Institutional Rivalry

• Rival Executives: The GNU under PM Abdul Hamid Dbeibah and the eastern GNS under PM Osama Hamad (backed by HoR and LNA/Haftar) remain split over electoral legislation and sequencing.
• Core Dispute: Whether to form a unified interim government to organise national polls (favoured by GNS/HoR; opposed by GNU and some in HSC). The stalemate endures since the postponed 2021 elections.

Electoral Developments (Municipal Track)

• Second Phase (Aug 2025): HNEC ran municipal polls beginning 16 Aug in 26 municipalities (West). Attacks on HNEC offices (Zawiya, Zliten, Sahel Al Gharbi) forced postponements in seven municipalities to 23 Aug.
• Turnout: ~72% participation in the areas that voted signs of local engagement despite national impasse.
• Geographic Gaps: No voting in GNS/HoR-controlled areas or many southern municipalities due to suspensions ordered by eastern authorities.
• UNSMIL Stance (11 Sep): Welcomed results in 34 municipalities; urged removal of obstacles to resume suspended polls.

UNSMIL’s Roadmap to National Elections and Unified Institutions

Three Pillars (briefed 21 Aug):

1. Viable electoral framework for presidential and legislative polls (legal clarity, sequencing, dispute resolution).

2. Institutional unification under a new government to run the elections.

3. Structured national dialogue on governance, economic, security, and reconciliation tracks to address conflict drivers.

Sequencing and Timeline:

• Reconstitute HNEC Board, ensure financial independence, and amend the framework—target before Nov 2025 (political will permitting).
• Negotiate unified government to create conditions for credible polls.
• UNSMIL to convene a structured dialogue on reforms (security sector, economy, reconciliation).
  Safeguards: If obstruction occurs, UNSMIL will pursue alternatives and seek Council support to avoid further deadlock.

Council Reaction (3 Sep PS): Welcomed the roadmap and urged Libyan actors to engage a Libyan-led, Libyan-owned process; called for respect of the 2020 ceasefire; welcomed municipal progress while noting suspensions.

Security Environment

• Macro-trend: Relative absence of large-scale hostilities, but localized violence and coercion risks persist, including intimidation around electoral facilities and officials.
• Tripoli (May spike): Earlier escalations underscored the fragility of deconfliction arrangements among armed formations.
• Ceasefire Compliance: Continued Council emphasis on 2020 ceasefire adherence and unified security arrangements as part of the roadmap.

Human Rights–Related Developments

• 23 June UN Experts: Urged Egypt and Libya to ensure accountability for reportedly unnecessary/disproportionate force against peaceful activists linked to the Global March to Gaza; called for release of any arbitrarily detained participants.
• Allegations: Unlawful detention, mistreatment, forcible deportation, violations of freedoms of expression/assembly; reports of sexual and gender-based violence against women participants.
• Obligations: Prompt, independent investigations; ensure fundamental freedoms and protect the right to peaceful assembly.

Mandate Renewal: Options and Design Choices

Baseline (Likely)

• Retain core tasks per Res. 2542 (2020) and Res. 2570 (2021 §16), aligned to support elections, ceasefire implementation, and human rights.

Updates to Consider

• Roadmap Tracking: Request periodic milestones reporting (legal framework, HNEC governance/independence, unified government formation, national dialogue progress).
• Reporting Cadence: Shift from 60-day to 120-day reports to allow substantive progress between briefings; use closed consultations or AOB updates if urgent issues arise.
• Obstruction Protocol: Endorse UNSMIL’s safeguards and specify Council support for alternatives if spoilers derail key steps.

Strategic Review Linkage

• Per Res. 2755 (31 Oct 2024), the Strategic Review (due end-Sep) should inform mandate talks. Members may wish to discuss its recommendations in IID/closed format before renewal.

Council Dynamics

• Broad Consensus: Support for a UN-facilitated, Libyan-led process culminating in elections; shared concern over fragile security.
• Roadmap Reception:

– Strong supporters: UK, France, Denmark, Greece, Panama—view plan as balanced/viable.

– Qualified encouragement: US, ROK, Slovenia, A3 Plus (Algeria, Sierra Leone, Somalia, Guyana), Pakistan—seek more implementation details.

– Caution: Russia (advance buy-in from all key actors; avoid imposed deadlines); China (support conditioned on broad acceptance by Libyan parties).

Outlook (Q4 2025–Q1 2026)

• Best-Case: Agreement on a time-bound legal framework, consensual steps toward a unified executive, resumed municipal polls nationwide, and launch of a national dialogue that lowers incentives for coercion.
• Baseline: Incremental, uneven progress; intermittent security incidents; selective municipal continuity; prolonged bargaining over unification.
• Risk Case: Spoilers stall legal reforms; targeted violence against election infrastructure/civic actors; escalation among armed formations in urban centres.

ASA Recommendations

1. Lock the Legal Milestones: Council to request a public milestone matrix (30/60/90 days) on electoral/legal steps and HNEC independence.

2. Incentivise Unification: Encourage a sequenced package (limited mandate unity cabinet + security/economic reform tracks) with verification.

3. Protect the Electoral Space: Back surge protection measures for HNEC facilities and personnel; press for zero tolerance on intimidation and SGBV.

4. Operationalise Safeguards: Endorse UNSMIL’s obstruction workarounds; prepare targeted measures against spoilers if red lines are crossed.

5. Keep Civilians Central: Expand human rights monitoring and survivor-centred SGBV services; enable safe civic participation and independent media access.

End Note

This forecast sketches the moving parts—competing executives, legal sequencing, municipal momentum, and rights risks—but durable progress will hinge on granular intelligence, scenario-based planning, and policy-to-operations translation that anticipates spoiler behaviour and protects electoral space in real time. ASA’s methodology integrates diplomatic signal analysis, armed-group and militia network mapping, and economy-of-conflict diagnostics to surface actionable inflection points for decision-makers.

Beyond this high-level brief, ASA can provide confidential deep-dive assessments, risk models, and options memos tailored to the needs of governments, multilateral bodies, and investors operating in or around Libya’s political economy. These advanced assessments and scenario exercises are delivered through dedicated costed engagements. Decision-makers seeking tailored analysis, implementation roadmaps, or discreet advisory support should contact ASA directly.