Morocco–Algeria: Toward a Historic Peace Agreement?

The United States leads discreet mediation efforts with Saudi support

Africa Security Analysis (ASA) – Maghreb Desk

A Renewed Diplomatic Initiative from Washington

On October 19, during an interview on CBS, U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff, Special Advisor to former President Donald Trump for the Middle East, revealed that Washington is actively working toward a peace agreement between Morocco and Algeria within the next 60 days.

His statement — made alongside Jared Kushner — immediately drew attention across North Africa and among global observers.
If realized, this initiative could mark a historic rapprochement between the two Maghreb powers, whose diplomatic ties have been severed since August 2021.

Background: Four Years of Diplomatic Rupture

The diplomatic break between Algiers and Rabat, declared on August 24, 2021, followed Algeria’s decision to cut ties over what it described as a series of “hostile acts” by Morocco.
Since then, both land and air borders have remained closed, effectively freezing bilateral cooperation in a region already burdened by decades of political mistrust and the Western Sahara dispute.

Despite political divisions, cultural and social bonds between the Moroccan and Algerian peoples remain strong, as do shared languages, traditions, and family ties.
Analysts across the region agree that normalization would yield mutual economic gains and could restore long-term regional stability to the Maghreb.

Discreet but Coordinated Mediation: The U.S. and Saudi Arabia

According to diplomatic sources, the United States and Saudi Arabia are jointly facilitating a confidential dialogue between the two North African neighbours.
Recent developments indicate active back-channel diplomacy:

• Both King Mohammed VI and President Abdelmadjid Tebboune reportedly received personal messages from Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman earlier this month.
• U.S. and Saudi diplomats have quietly engaged in shuttle discussions to reestablish trust and explore a framework for normalization.

Given Riyadh’s credibility in the Arab world and its alignment with Washington, the Saudi role as a neutral bridge is seen as critical to advancing the process and ensuring Arab ownership of the initiative.

The Western Sahara: Core of the Dispute

The Western Sahara conflict remains the single most contentious issue:

• Morocco upholds its autonomy plan under Moroccan sovereignty, officially recognized by the U.S. since 2020.
• Algeria, in contrast, advocates for the Sahrawi people’s right to self-determination, maintaining its political and logistical support for the Polisario Front.

Despite this deep divide, Washington has reiterated its intent to defuse the deadlock peacefully.
In an interview with Al Arabiya, U.S. Africa advisor Messaad Boulos emphasized the need for a “sustainable, negotiated solution”, framing Maghreb stability as key to countering Russian and Chinese strategic influence in North Africa.

Strategic and Economic Stakes of Rapprochement

A potential Morocco–Algeria peace agreement would have far-reaching regional implications:

• Reopening of borders would stimulate cross-border trade and revive local economies long cut off from integration.
• Reactivation of the Arab Maghreb Union (AMU) could create a long-awaited framework for economic cooperation.
• Improved regional security coordination, especially against jihadist groups in the Sahel and arms trafficking networks.
• Joint infrastructure and energy projects, leveraging Morocco’s logistics and Algeria’s natural resources.

A normalization could transform the Maghreb into a cohesive regional bloc, better positioned to negotiate trade, energy, and migration frameworks with Europe, while strengthening African and Arab diplomacy.

Fragile Prospects but Significant Symbolism

While the diplomatic momentum is promising, deep-seated mistrust persists.
A durable peace process will require:

• Strong political will from both sides.
• A neutral, balanced negotiation framework ensuring respect for sovereignty.
• International guarantees to monitor implementation and maintain transparency.

Nonetheless, the very fact that discussions have resumed — after years of silence — represents a major diplomatic shift in North Africa.

Regional and International Implications

If a peace agreement were finalized within the proposed 60-day timeline, it would mark one of the most significant strategic realignments in the Arab world in decades:

• The Maghreb could reemerge as a zone of cooperation rather than confrontation.
• The United States would consolidate its position as a stabilizing actor in North Africa.
• Saudi Arabia would enhance its role as a regional mediator and power broker.
• Europe, heavily reliant on Algerian gas and Moroccan trade routes, would benefit from enhanced energy and border security.

Furthermore, a unified Maghreb could serve as a buffer zone of stability amid ongoing turmoil in the Sahel, Libya, and the Red Sea corridor.

Key Statement by U.S. Envoy Steve Witkoff

During his CBS appearance on 60 Minutes, Steve Witkoff declared:

“We are actively working on it, and a peace agreement will be concluded within the next two months.”

This bold statement — echoed globally — signals the most optimistic diplomatic window in over a decade for the Maghreb.
According to ASA analysts, the U.S. appears intent on achieving a symbolic diplomatic success ahead of the 2026 U.S. election cycle, while securing strategic influence in a region increasingly contested by Russia, China, and Turkey.

ASA Strategic Assessment

African Security Analysis (ASA) assesses that this mediation represents both a strategic opportunity and a high-risk political experiment:

• Opportunity: The potential to revive Maghreb unity, unlock cross-border trade, and boost regional economic resilience.
• Strategic objective: To stabilize North Africa as part of a wider U.S.–Gulf strategy to contain external influence.
• Risk factors:

1. Renewed polarization over the Western Sahara within multilateral forums.

2. Domestic political resistance in Algeria against normalization.

3. Interference by foreign actors seeking to maintain division and leverage instability.

ASA concludes that, despite its fragility, this process is the most credible path toward Maghreb integration since the 1990s.

As a regional intelligence and policy advisory firm, African Security Analysis (ASA) provides strategic, diplomatic, and security expertise to governments, institutions, and private actors across Africa.

In the context of the Morocco–Algeria peace process, ASA can deliver:

a. Strategic and Scenario Analysis

• In-depth intelligence briefs on negotiation dynamics and risk scenarios.
• Economic and geopolitical forecasting for a post-agreement Maghreb.
• Stakeholder mapping and influence tracking (state and non-state actors).

b. Diplomatic and Policy Support

• Advisory services to mediation teams and diplomatic observers.
• Confidential policy notes for ministries of foreign affairs and regional organizations.
• Facilitation of Track II dialogues and confidence-building workshops.

c. Strategic Communication and Media Monitoring

• Analysis of narratives, disinformation, and media framing related to the peace process.
• Development of unified messaging strategies for public diplomacy.
• Training for government spokespersons and strategic communication units.

d. Security and Risk Management

• Cross-border risk assessment and early-warning systems for post-normalization scenarios.
• Advisory on intelligence-sharing mechanisms and counterterrorism coordination.
• Design of regional cooperation frameworks for border and migration control.

With offices and research partners across North and West Africa, ASA operates a real-time Early Warning & Risk Prevention System (EWRPS) that supports decision-makers through timely alerts, field-based analysis, and strategic recommendations.

Conclusion

The prospect of a Morocco–Algeria peace agreement — supported by the United States and Saudi Arabia — represents a rare and transformative opportunity for the Maghreb.
While challenges remain, the resumption of dialogue after years of hostility is a significant diplomatic achievement.

If successful, this rapprochement would not only reshape regional geopolitics but also offer a new paradigm of cooperation, stability, and shared prosperity across North Africa.

African Security Analysis (ASA) will continue to monitor developments closely and stands ready to assist governments, regional bodies, and international partners in preventing escalations, strengthening dialogue mechanisms, and building a durable framework for peace and integration in the Maghreb.