Niger–Orano Arbitration: Uranium, Sovereignty, and the Struggle for Economic Decolonization

Executive Assessment

The ongoing confrontation between Niger and French nuclear giant Orano has escalated from a commercial dispute into a broader geopolitical battle over sovereignty and resource control. On 23 September 2025, the International Centre for Settlement of Investment Disputes (ICSID) ruled in favour of Orano, prohibiting Niger from selling uranium from the recently nationalized Somaïr mine.

Yet, this procedural victory masks a deeper loss: Orano has been stripped of operational control, its local director remains in prison, and Niger’s transitional authorities insist on exercising full sovereignty over uranium resources. With over 1,300 tonnes of uranium concentrate (≈ €250 million) immobilized, the standoff risks escalating into a precedent-setting confrontation between Western corporations and African states seeking to reverse decades of asymmetrical resource arrangements.

Niger’s Position: Resource Sovereignty and Economic Independence

• At the UN General Assembly on 27 September, Prime Minister Ali Mahaman Lamine Zeine denounced France’s strategy as a “war of economic attrition,” accusing it of weaponizing legal mechanisms to delay Niger’s access to its own resources.
• Niger frames the dispute as part of a post-colonial rebalancing, asserting that mineral wealth must serve domestic development rather than foreign utilities.
• Authorities openly question ICSID’s jurisdiction, signalling their refusal to cede ground on sovereignty.

Orano’s Partial Legal Victory

• The ICSID ruling prevents Niger from exporting uranium from Somaïr pending arbitration outcomes.
• However, on the ground:

– Orano has no operational presence.

– Its local representative remains under detention.

– Assets are frozen and borders with Benin remain closed, blocking exports.

• Orano has initiated multiple arbitration claims, seeking compensation for contract breaches and asset expropriation.

Strategic Stakes

For Niger

• Operational challenge: assuming control of technically complex mining operations without Orano’s expertise.
• Diplomatic risk: asset seizures abroad, reputational damage, investor flight.
• Economic necessity: identify new buyers for uranium beyond France and the EU, potentially turning to Russia, China, or emerging Asian markets.

For France and Orano

• Nuclear dependence: France sources 70% of its electricity from nuclear, and Niger supplied 15% of uranium imports pre-2023.
• Supply diversification: accelerated reliance on Kazakhstan, Canada, Mongolia.
• Strategic loss: erosion of France’s privileged position in the Sahel.

Local Realities: Costs of Extraction

• Arlit, the uranium heartland, has long been marked by environmental degradation, health crises, and social unrest.
• The Nigerien Ministry of Mines acknowledges a legacy of “pollution, rebellion, and desolation” tied to uranium extraction.
• The state faces the dual burden of ensuring continuity of operations while addressing decades of socio-environmental neglect.

Unresolved Issues

• Compensation: The government pledged to indemnify Orano and other shareholders but has yet to define terms or financing mechanisms.
• Production Continuity: Without stable export channels, uranium stockpiles risk becoming stranded assets.
• International Arbitration: Legal proceedings could drag on for years, prolonging uncertainty and raising risks of asset seizures.

African Security Analysis (ASA) Assessment

The Orano–Niger conflict encapsulates three interwoven dynamics:

1. Investor Rights vs. Sovereignty: a classic collision between international arbitration systems and national resource control.

2. Colonial Legacy vs. Economic Independence: uranium is both a strategic commodity and a symbol of Niger’s quest for emancipation from French dominance.

3. Energy Security vs. Political Realignment: France’s nuclear future collides with Niger’s geopolitical pivot, deepening the rupture in Franco-Sahel relations.

Conclusion

The arbitration battle is unlikely to resolve the fundamental clash of narratives: Niger insists on sovereignty, Orano demands contract enforcement, and France seeks to safeguard nuclear security.

• The dispute will reshape uranium geopolitics, opening space for non-Western buyers.
• Niger’s strategy resonates across Africa as part of a continental wave of economic decolonization.
• International investors face heightened risks in resource sectors where legal guarantees clash with sovereignty claims.

By monitoring litigation, tracking shifts in uranium trade flows, and mapping emerging partnerships, ASA provides early warning, strategic foresight, and investor risk protection in an increasingly contested African resource landscape.