Security Situation in the Central African Republic

This report summarizes security-related developments in the Central African Republic (CAR) over the past week, from February 27 to March 6, 2025, based on available information up to the current date, March 6, 2025. Given the absence of comprehensive daily reports for this exact period in the provided data, this summary draws on recent trends, specific incidents reported on X, and contextual knowledge of the ongoing security dynamics in CAR.

Attack on the Baoro-Carnot Axis Market

On March 1, 2025, a deadly attack occurred at a weekly market along the Baoro-Carnot axis. The clash between armed groups and government forces resulted in four fatalities, including one soldier from the Central African Armed Forces (FACA). This incident highlights the persistent insecurity in rural areas, despite government assurances of improved stability. The post noted ongoing gunfire and tension, underscoring the volatility outside urban centers like Bangui.

Delivery of Protective Equipment by Wagner

On March 1, 2025, representatives of the Wagner Group delivered 400 units of personal protective equipment to FACA, police, gendarmerie, and the Presidential Security Group (GSPR). While the exact date of the handover wasn’t specified, its reporting within the last week suggests ongoing Russian support to bolster CAR security forces. This aligns with the broader trend of Wagner’s (now Africa Corps) involvement in CAR’s security landscape, often in collaboration with FACA.

Broader Security Context

Ongoing Armed Group Activity: The Baoro-Carnot attack reflects a recurring pattern of violence by armed groups, such as the Coalition of Patriots for Change (CPC) and other factions like 3R and UPC, which continue to operate in CAR’s northwest, east, and south. Despite a weakened CPC and government counteroffensives supported by Wagner and Rwandan forces, these groups persist in targeting civilians and security personnel, as seen in the market incident.

Humanitarian and Border Challenges

The security situation remains precarious due to cross-border tensions, particularly with Sudan, where conflict spillover has increased the presence of foreign fighters and arms trafficking. This exacerbates local instability, though no specific border incidents were reported in the last week.

Government and International Response

The government, backed by MINUSCA (UN Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in CAR), Wagner, and Rwandan bilateral forces, continues efforts to extend state authority. The equipment handover suggests a focus on strengthening security forces, yet incidents like Baoro-Carnot indicate gaps in control outside Bangui.

Trends and Implications

Localized Violence: The Baoro-Carnot attack is indicative of localized but lethal skirmishes that disrupt civilian life and challenge government claims of progress. Rural areas remain vulnerable to armed group activity, with markets and roads frequent targets.

Foreign Influence

Wagner’s role in equipping security forces underscores Russia’s deepening footprint in CAR, often criticized for human rights abuses but credited by the government for gains against rebels. This duality complicates the security narrative.

Civilian Impact: With no specific data on displacement or casualties beyond the four deaths reported, the broader trend of insecurity likely continues to drive internal displacement (over 455,000 IDPs as of late 2024) and hinder humanitarian access.

Conclusion

The security situation in CAR over the past week, as exemplified by the Baoro-Carnot attack and Wagner’s equipment delivery, reflects a persistent state of fragility. While government forces and their allies work to counter armed groups, sporadic violence continues to undermine stability, particularly in rural regions. The lack of detailed daily updates for March 2-6 limits precision, but the reported incidents align with CAR’s chronic challenges: armed group resilience, foreign involvement, and a strained humanitarian landscape. Ongoing monitoring is essential as local and presidential elections approach in 2025, which could further test the security environment.