South Sudan: Tensions Rise Amid Political Crackdowns and Localized Violence

Over the past week, from approximately March 12 to March 19, 2025, the security situation in South Sudan has been marked by escalating tensions and volatility, though no full-scale conflict has erupted. Key developments include:

• Rising Political Tensions: The arrest of opposition figures, including Lieutenant General Gabriel Duop Lam, a senior military official aligned with First Vice President Riek Machar, and the deployment of troops around Machar’s residence in Juba, heightened fears of a breakdown in the 2018 peace agreement between President Salva Kiir and Machar. These actions followed reports of security forces targeting allies of Machar, including the peacebuilding and petroleum ministers, further straining the fragile unity government.
• Violent Incidents: Intense fighting was reported in Nasir, Upper Nile State, on March 4, 2025, contributing to a volatile atmosphere. Additionally, an attack on a UN helicopter in the prior week (around March 7) resulted in dozens of deaths, including a general, prompting President Kiir to assert that the country would not return to war. Ceasefire monitors (CTSAMVM) warned that the Nasir conflict and ongoing arrests were destabilizing factors.
• Regional and International Response: Uganda deployed special forces to Juba to secure the capital amid rising tensions, though South Sudan’s government denied their presence. The United States ordered non-emergency personnel to leave South Sudan due to security concerns, including crime, kidnapping, and armed conflict risks. The U.S. and UK issued travel advisories, while the UN expressed alarm over the deteriorating situation. Regional mediators have been actively working to prevent a slide back into civil war.
• Government Stance: South Sudan’s Foreign Ministry and government officials maintained that the country remains "safe and secure," dismissing the Nasir violence as an isolated incident and rejecting foreign travel warnings. However, posts on X and reports from international observers suggest a more precarious reality, with urban crime rising and the potential for spontaneous unrest growing.

Overall, while the government downplays the situation, the combination of political crackdowns, localized clashes, and international evacuations indicates a fragile and unpredictable security environment in South Sudan over the last week.