Central African Republic: Consolidation under Constraint

Post-Election Stabilisation, Persistent Armed Group Threats, and Early Warning of Localised Destabilisation

Executive Strategic Assessment

The Central African Republic (CAR) has entered a post-election consolidation phase following the combined presidential, legislative, and local elections of 28 December 2025. While the electoral process was conducted with relative calm across much of the country and resulted in the re-election of President Faustin-Archange Touadéra, the underlying security and governance environment remains uneven and fragile. Stability gains achieved over recent years—largely with the support of the UN Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in the Central African Republic (MINUSCA)—are real but not yet irreversible.

In African Security Analysis (ASA) assessment, CAR currently sits at an intermediate risk level: the state has strengthened its territorial control and institutional presence, yet armed group activity persists in specific regions, political inclusivity remains contested, and external shocks—particularly spillover from Sudan—pose growing risks. The post-election period will therefore be decisive in determining whether the country consolidates its relative gains or drifts toward renewed fragmentation at the periphery.

Political Context: Elections as a Stabilising Event with Residual Contestation

The combined elections of 28 December 2025 represented a major political milestone. With logistical, technical, and security support from MINUSCA, more than 2.4 million voters were registered, and a reported 52 percent turnout was achieved. Provisional results announced by the National Election Authority (ANE) on 5 January indicated that President Touadéra secured 76 percent of the vote, a result later certified by the Constitutional Court on 19 January. His inauguration is scheduled for 30 March.

At the continental level, the African Union, through Commission Chairperson Mahmoud Ali Youssouf, welcomed the outcome, reinforcing regional recognition of the electoral process. However, the elections were not universally accepted. Two former prime ministers who contested the presidential race rejected the results, alleging fraud, while opposition parties and civil society organisations raised concerns over shrinking political space, limited inclusivity, and constrained campaigning conditions.

The main opposition coalition, the Bloc Républicain pour la Défense de la Constitution du 30 mars 2016 (BRDC), boycotted the elections entirely, citing credibility and fairness concerns. According to ASA’s analysis, this boycott does not immediately threaten national stability but signals latent political disengagement that could, if left unaddressed, translate into longer-term legitimacy challenges and localized unrest.

Security Environment: Expanded State Control with Persistent Armed Group Activity

With sustained support from MINUSCA, the CAR government and the Central African Armed Forces (FACA) have expanded territorial control across large parts of the country. This has contributed to a general improvement in national-level security, particularly along key transport corridors and population centres.

Nevertheless, insecurity persists in specific high-risk zones, most notably in the southeast and along border areas. In Haut-Mbomou prefecture, the security situation remains precarious due to the activities of the Azande Ani Kpi Gbe militia, which has been accused of serious human rights violations. Media and local reporting indicate that the group has carried out targeted attacks against security forces, state officials, and civilians, including incidents on election day.

In the northeast, spillover effects from the conflict in Sudan are increasingly evident. Cross-border movements, arms flows, and population displacement threaten to destabilise already fragile border communities. ASA assesses that while these dynamics remain contained for now, they represent a medium-term destabilisation vector if not proactively managed.

MINUSCA: Operational Support amid Financial Constraint

MINUSCA remains a central pillar of stability in the CAR. Its mandate was renewed through Security Council resolution 2800 on 13 November 2025 for one year, despite the abstention of the United States. The mission’s role in supporting the elections—through logistics, voter education, and coordinated security—was critical to their relatively peaceful conduct.

However, MINUSCA is operating under significant strain due to the UN’s liquidity crisis. Contingency measures and austerity steps have been implemented, raising concerns about the mission’s capacity to sustain its full range of mandated tasks. During his late-November visit, Under-Secretary-General Jean-Pierre Lacroix emphasized continued UN commitment but acknowledged financial constraints.

In ASA’s view, the risk is not immediate mission failure, but gradual erosion of operational reach, particularly in remote or high-risk areas where MINUSCA’s presence is most needed to deter armed group activity.

Human Rights Situation: Worsening Indicators Despite Relative Stability

Human rights trends remain a major concern. MINUSCA’s Human Rights Division documented 232 violations and abuses of international human rights and humanitarian law in November 2025, affecting 298 victims. This represented a sharp increase compared to the previous month, with notable rises in both incidents and victims.

Particularly alarming is the documentation of 28 cases of conflict-related sexual violence, often accompanied by abduction, cruel treatment, and the recruitment or use of children. These patterns underscore that, despite improvements in overall security, civilians in certain regions remain highly vulnerable.

Independent expert Yao Agbetse has warned that peace and development without strong human rights foundations risk sowing the seeds of future conflict. ASA concurs with this assessment: stabilisation gains that are not matched by accountability and protection measures are inherently fragile.

Strategic and Operational Issues for the Security Council

In the post-election context, a central issue for the Council is how to support political consolidation without overlooking residual grievances. Encouraging dialogue to address electoral disputes, even if limited in scope, will be important to prevent political alienation from morphing into security challenges.

Another key issue is the gradual handover of certain MINUSCA tasks to national authorities or the UN country team, as requested in resolution 2800. While progress on the ground makes such discussions legitimate, ASA assesses that premature drawdown—particularly in security and human rights monitoring—could expose gaps that armed groups may exploit.

The impact of the UN liquidity crisis remains a cross-cutting concern, requiring careful calibration between fiscal realism and operational necessity.

Early Warning Outlook

Over the next one to three months, the most likely trajectory is continued relative stability at the national level, combined with localized insecurity in the southeast and border regions. Political tensions linked to the elections are expected to remain largely contained, provided opposition grievances do not intersect with armed group agendas.

However, early-warning indicators to monitor closely include:
– renewed attacks by non-signatory armed groups, particularly Azande Ani Kpi Gbe
– increased cross-border incidents linked to Sudan’s conflict
– reduced MINUSCA mobility or presence due to financial constraints
– post-inauguration political crackdowns that narrow civic space further

The Central African Republic is not on the brink of renewed national conflict, but it is operating within a narrow stability corridor. Consolidation will depend on sustained international engagement, protection of civilians, and careful sequencing of any mission transition.

Stability achieved through security expansion alone will not endure without parallel political inclusion and human rights protection.

Failure to manage localized risks and external spillovers could gradually reverse gains and re-open pathways to fragmentation.