Emerging Rebel Threats in Uganda

Overview of the Threat

Intelligence reports have confirmed a coordinated campaign by newly forming rebel groups operating in central Uganda and on the outskirts of Kampala. These groups are planning improvised explosive attacks in crowded public areas and systematically targeting key power infrastructure. Their objective is to cause widespread disruption and erode public confidence in state institutions. This information was confirmed by Colonel Chris Magezi, Acting Director of the Uganda People’s Defence Forces (UPDF) Defence Public Information.

Recent Incidents

• Power Grid Sabotage: In the past month, insurgents have sabotaged electrical infrastructure in several districts, including Wakiso, Mukono, Luweero, Nakaseke, Kiboga, Nakasongola, Mityana, Mubende, Mpigi, and Greater Masaka. They have cut high-voltage cables and stripped parts from transformers, causing blackouts lasting up to 72 hours. These outages have severely impacted emergency services and disrupted local economies.
• Bomb Plot Foiled: Security forces recently arrested three suspects near a busy bus terminal in Mukono. The individuals were in possession of pressure-plate devices and fertilizer-based explosives. Forensic teams quickly intervened, neutralizing the threat before any explosion could occur.
• Recruitment Networks Disrupted: Undercover agents have dismantled five rebel recruitment hubs in Kampala’s informal settlements, including Katwe, Kisenyi, Kawempe, Nateete, and Bwaise. These centres were targeting vulnerable youth with offers of cash and promises of “training” in sabotage. Several ringleaders have been apprehended.

Key Areas of Concern

• Central Corridor (Wakiso–Mukono–Luweero): This area remains a primary target due to its critical power infrastructure, which supports both major cities and surrounding towns.
• Greater Masaka Region: Intelligence suggests planned attacks on water-pumping stations and agro-processing plants, posing a serious threat to food security and livelihoods.
• Outskirts of Kampala: Rebel recruiters are focusing on slum communities, exploiting high youth unemployment to attract new members.

Coordinated Security Measures

• Integrated Task Force: Led by the UPDF Chief of Defence Forces, joint teams from the police, prisons service, and intelligence agencies are patrolling power stations, transformer sites, and crowded venues. Security checkpoints on secondary roads have been reinforced to intercept materials intended for sabotage.
• Inter-Agency Collaboration: A dedicated Inter-Agency Security Committee is working to infiltrate and dismantle these rebel networks, with a particular focus on disrupting recruitment efforts in Kampala’s vulnerable communities.
• Advanced Surveillance: Drones are conducting continuous aerial monitoring of critical infrastructure routes, transmitting live data to command centers. These efforts are supported by undercover patrols and increased visible police presence in high-risk areas.
• Community Alert Systems: Local councils and neighbourhood watch volunteers are connected to security agencies via secure hotlines to report suspicious activity. This has led to a threefold increase in actionable tips and faster response times.

Strategic Actions and Future Plans

Cutting Off Funding: Financial crime units will investigate and freeze the bank accounts and informal money transfer networks funding rebel activities. Raids are planned on suspected cash couriers and safe houses.

Protecting Infrastructure: Utility companies are upgrading electrical infrastructure with tamper-proof technology, accelerating maintenance schedules, and deploying rapid-response teams to restore services after sabotage.

Counter-Recruitment Initiatives: The government is expanding vocational training and micro-grant programs in at-risk communities, offering legitimate income alternatives to prevent youth from joining insurgent groups.

Diplomatic Measures: The Ministry of Foreign Affairs has summoned foreign diplomats to reaffirm their commitment to non-interference and respect for Uganda’s sovereignty.

Public Advisory

• Remain Vigilant: Citizens are encouraged to report any suspicious gatherings near power lines, substations, markets, or transportation hubs.
• Be Cautious: Avoid interacting with exposed wires or strange objects near infrastructure. Alert security personnel instead.
• Get Involved: Eligible individuals are urged to enrol in government skills-training and entrepreneurship support programs without delay.

Conclusion

Previous assessments by Africa Security Analysis accurately forecasted the rise of these rebel threats. Proactive measures have already led to key arrests and infrastructure reinforcements, preventing serious incidents. Moving forward, continued vigilance and collaboration between security forces, local communities, and international partners will be essential. By combining strong intelligence operations, community engagement, and economic empowerment initiatives, Uganda can counter these threats and build lasting resilience. A comprehensive, multi-layered approach will be critical to safeguarding national stability in this evolving security environment.