Escalating Jihadist Violence and Political Fragmentation in the Sahel

A Week of Crisis

In the last week of April 2025, the Sahel region experienced a significant escalation in violence and instability, primarily driven by jihadist groups and ongoing political fragmentation. Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM), an al-Qaeda-affiliated group, launched coordinated attacks across Mali, Burkina Faso, and Benin from April 21–25, targeting civilians, security forces, and urban centres. These attacks reflect JNIM’s growing operational reach, exploiting vulnerabilities in urban outskirts and capital cities like Bamako and Niamey. Islamic State Sahel Province (IS-Sahel) also intensified its activities, with a notable attack near Tillaberi, Niger, on April 25, killing at least seven Nigerien soldiers. Another IS-Sahel assault near Tongo Tongo left a military patrol missing after heavy fighting.

The security situation is compounded by the region’s political disunity, particularly following the formal withdrawal of Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) on January 29, 2025, to focus on their Alliance of Sahel States (AES). This shift has weakened regional counterterrorism coordination, leaving a vacuum that jihadist groups exploit. The AES’s alignment with Russia, including military ties and the presence of Russian forces in Niger, has further complicated international responses. Burkina Faso’s military junta faces accusations of human rights abuses, including a reported massacre of 223 civilians, including 56 children, in February 2025, highlighting the brutal counterinsurgency tactics employed by state forces and allied militias like the Volunteers for the Defense of the Homeland (VDP).

The humanitarian crisis worsened, with nearly 5 million people displaced across the region, including 2.1 million in Burkina Faso alone. Climate change, resource scarcity, and weak governance continue to fuel recruitment by extremist groups, particularly in rural areas. Coastal states like Benin and Togo reported increased JNIM activity, with 28 Beninese soldiers killed in early January 2025, signalling the spread of violence beyond the central Sahel. Despite regional efforts to establish a counterterrorism force, the lack of coordinated international support and the withdrawal of Western forces have left local militaries overstretched, allowing jihadist groups to expand their influence and target urban centres with increasing sophistication, including drone warfare.